Monday’s main slate features nine games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
A four-pack of pitchers top FanDuel’s pricing:
- Trevor Bauer (R) $11,000, LAD vs SF
- Lucas Giolito (R) $9,800, CHW vs MIN
- Freddy Peralta (R) $9,500, MIL vs CHC
- Kyle Hendricks (R) $9,300, CHC @ MIL
Trevor Bauer has been pretty good in his west coast stint, but he is not pitching at the same Cy Young-caliber level as he did in 2020. His K/9 is down almost one strikeout, his BB/9 is up one full free pass, his home run rate has increased, and his BABIP and groundball rate are at career lows. His xERA is 3.24 and xFIP is 3.69, both above his 2.57 actual ERA. This is concerning as Bauer pitches against the San Francisco Giants. They have a 92 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in road games, but have a top-10 slugging percentage, ISO, and HR/FB ratio. Bauer can miss bats and has an advantage there. San Francisco strikes out 27 percent of the time in road games.
Bauer is the second-rated pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings using the Bales Model.
Lucas Giolito is another pitcher having issues with the long ball. His 1.75 HR/9 is the highest it has been since his cup of coffee with the Nationals in 2016. His expected numbers are not far off from Bauer’s at 3.34 and 3.55. The Minnesota Twins are excellent against righties in away games. The Twins are top five in a majority of offensive categories including hard hit rate, HR/FB and OPS. What gets Minnesota in trouble is a .305 BABIP and top six groundball-to-flyball ratio. It helps explain why the Twins are only four games under .500 on the road and not worse.
Freddy Peralta is the top-rated pitcher on both platforms. He is the first of Milwaukee’s three-headed pitching monster to take on the Chicago Cubs. Peralta is projected to lead all pitchers in fantasy points and has the best strikeout rate. The Cubs come into the series well below league average against righties away from home (83 wRC+). Chicago’s offense strikes out the sixth-most on the road against righties, so a mediocre outing by the 25-year-old could still produce strong counting stats for fantasy production.
Opposite Peralta is Cubs ace Kyle Hendricks. His slow start is but a distant memory as Hendricks has allowed more than three earned runs once since May 9. The righty has scored 40 FanDuel points in each of his two starts against Milwaukee. His road ERA is almost one-half run better on the road than at home, but his road slugging percentage is 26 points higher away from the friendly confines. Milwaukee is the worst home team against right-handers according to wRC+.
Value
Garrett Richards will be looking to break a three-game streak in which he has allowed 12 earned runs in 11 innings. He gets the Kansas City Royals in Boston, where he has been bad. The good thing is the Royals are a poor road team, including against righties. They do have the best road medium hit percentage, a good indicator for contact, but are bottom three in hard hit percentage and are bottom five in OPS. If Richards limits his walks, he can be one of the better players of any position. Despite a 6.46 home ERA, he has yet to give up a home run at Fenway in 23 2/3 innings.
Fastballs
Zack Grienke is tied with Bauer for the most Pro Trends among pitchers. He does not have the Cy Young-worthy stuff he had previously, but he has aged well and is supported by the best offense in baseball.
Kenta Maeda has not allowed more than three runs in a start since April 27, but he has also not pitched six innings in an outing. The White Sox are a good team but are susceptible to bad games with their starting outfield and second baseman out, and José Abreu is day-to-day after getting hit on the knee by a pitch.
Notable Stack
After outscoring the Baltimore Orioles 26-3 in three games last week, the Houston Astros are the top stack as the season series shifts to Texas.
- José Altuve (R)
- Yuli Gurriel (R)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Yordan Alvarez (L)
Total Salary: $14,700
All four hitters are projected for double-digit fantasy points on both sites. The Astros face Tom Eshelman for the second time in five days. Houston tagged him for eight hits and six earned runs in four innings June 23. Houston is projected to score 6.2 runs, tied for the most with Boston.
Other Hitters
DJ LeMahieu is back. He is on a 10-game hitting streak with one homer and 10 RBI.
If he is in the lineup and you are feeling dangerous, Marwin Gonzalez is hitting .423 (11-for-26) with a .500 slugging percentage against Royals starter Danny Duffy. The dangerous part is tied to how long Duffy pitches, if at all after throwing one inning June 25.
Four of Nelson Cruz’s nine hits against Giolito have left the field.
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are tied for the highest Team Value Rating on FanDuel. The Detroit Tigers are tops on DraftKings.
Luke Voit is a reverse-splits hitter, meaning he prefers to hit same-handed pitching. His batting average and slugging percentage are higher against righties than lefties. Angels starter Dylan Bundy has a career-high HR/FB ratio and Barrel percentage.
Photo Credit: Nic Antaya/Getty Images
Pictured: Carlos Correa (from left), Martin Maldonado and Ryan Pressly.
