Fun fact about tonight’s eight-game main slate: Only two are being played east of the Mississippi.
Lock is at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Four pitchers sit atop pricing at FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,300, NYY @ TEX
- Yu Darvish (R) $11,100, SD vs COL
- Walker Buehler (R) $9,900, LAD vs ARI
- Yusei Kikuchi (L) $9,000, SEA vs DET
If not for a significant price gap between Gerrit Cole and Yu Darvish on FanDuel, Cole would be rated higher there. He is the top-rated pitcher and has an 85% Bargain Rating on DraftKings according to the Bales Model. The Yankees’ ace has been superb this season and has scored at least 47 FanDuel points in six of eight starts. The Texas Rangers have been better than expected in 2021, ranking top 10 in wRC+ and walk rate at home against right-handed pitching. The Rangers still strike out at one of the worst rates in the league, and Cole has the highest K/9 on the slate. The only issue with Cole on FanDuel is trying to construct a roster after inserting his $12,300 price tag. He should be the top-owned pitcher on DraftKings.
The Colorado Rockies have the second-worst wRC+ against righties away from the friendly confines. They head to San Diego to face Darvish in pitcher-friendly Petco Park where the contest is projected to tie for the lowest game total. Darvish is top three is Consistency on both platforms and is tied with Walker Buehler for most Pro Trends among projected starters. He also has the highest Leverage Score of the high-priced pitchers.
Buehler and the Dodgers are one-run favorites against the Diamondbacks and the game is tied with Rockies-Padres for the lowest game total. The Dodgers are short five positional starters and are scraping for healthy bullpen arms. The good thing for them is the Diamondbacks are also dealing with injuries throughout the roster. Arizona is barely better than the Rockies on the road. Its offense is bottom three in average, slugging, and OPS in away games against righties. He is the top pitcher on FanDuel.
The Detroit Tigers are the worst team against left-handed pitching on the road. They are the only team with a higher on-base percentage than slugging and sport a 29 wRC+. Detroit is also the only team with an OPS lower than .523. Yusei Kikuchi is going to see a lot of ownership as the cheapest of the top pitchers, especially on DraftKings where he is $1,200 cheaper.
All four are the top-rated pitchers on DraftKings.
Values
Adbert Alzolay has been the Cubs’ best pitcher, which says more about the Cubs than Alzolay. His home runs are concerning, but positive regression is in play. He has a .208 BABIP and his peripherals are lower than his 4.50 ERA. The weather in Chicago tonight should also play in Alzolay’s favor with rain hitting the area on and off during the day.
Max Fried has been a different pitcher since returning from the IL, allowing two earned runs over his last 11 innings. He allowed two in his opening start and 14 overall before landing on the shelf. The Mets come to town as one of the weaker hitting teams against southpaws in away games. The Mets have the third-lowest Hard Hit percentage (Hard%) and the second-highest Soft Hit percentage (Soft%) on the road against lefties.
Fastballs
Madison Bumgarner has rebounded from his horrific start to the season, but for as injured as the Dodgers are, the offense is still productive against lefty starters.
Jon Gray has elevated his groundball percentage to more than 50 percent for only the second time in his career. He has also lowered his Home Run-to-Flyball ratio for the second straight season. The San Diego Padres are shorthanded due to COVID and have the third-highest GB/FB ratio at home against right-handed pitching.
Notable Stack
The American League’s best team against left-handed pitching at home is the top stack on FanDuel:
- Anthony Rendon (R)
- Mike Trout (R)
- Shohei Ohtani (L)
- Taylor Ward (R)
Total Salary: $14,100
The Angels’ outfield situation has been a mess aside from Mike Trout. Taylor Ward has been one of the better of the bad and offers salary relief at $2,600 on FanDuel. He is listed as a third baseman on FanDuel, but an outfielder on DraftKings. Ward is the only Angels hitter rated as a top-10 option on both platforms. Trout, Rendon, and Ohtani have top-10 projections.
Other Hitters
The White Sox suffered their second loss to a left-handed pitcher since 2020 over the weekend. They can get back on track against J.A. Happ, who allowed nine earned runs last week in his start to the Pale Hose. Leury Garcia is a top-10 rated hitter on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Pricing is off on FanDuel according to the Bales Model. Only seven batters have a 95% Bargain Rating or better on DraftKings, while 18 have that distinction on FanDuel. And it is not just rarely used hitters. D.J. LeMahieu, Manny Machado, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Trevor Story are just a few deals to target before their salaries skyrocket based on their talent and expected production.
Photo Credit: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
Pictured: Gerrit Cole
