Monday’s main slate features 11 games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. Note that the Twins-White Sox are not on FanDuel’s or DraftKings’ main slate offerings because of their Monday doubleheader.
Pitchers
Four pitchers top FanDuel’s pricing, all of whom start on the road:
- Yu Darvish (R) $11,200, SD @ ATL
- Kevin Gausman (R) $10,600, SF @ LAD
- Shohei Ohtani (R) $10,200, LAA @ OAK
- Kyle Gibson (R) $9,100, TEX @ DET
Yu Darvish (hip, illness) will make his first start off the injured list against a Jekyll & Hyde Atlanta offense. The extra rest for Darvish should help him rebound from the -3 points he put up against the Nationals prior to the All-Star break. Atlanta has a top-10 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching at home, but also strikes out more than 25 percent of the time. At $11,200 on FanDuel you are paying for a ceiling performance. Darvish is $2,000 cheaper on DraftKings, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating and rates as the second-best pitcher using the Bales Model.
The last time Kevin Gausman faced the Dodgers in Los Angeles, he allowed three runs on three hits and five walks over five innings. His 18 FanDuel points June 29 against the Dodgers is tied for his lowest of this season. Gausman has a 21:10 K/BB ratio over his past three starts. The 10 free passes are the most Gausman has allowed over any three-game stretch in 2021. If he keeps those at bay, Gausman can rack up strikeouts. Only Shohei Ohtani has a better Strikeout Per 9 rate. Gausman has the second-best Leverage Score on DraftKings.
Ohtani will once again pitch and hit for the Angels in Oakland. He allowed four walks in his only start there this season and it comes with little surprise. The Athletics have the fourth-best walk rate at home against righties. What Ohtani is doing as a pitcher and hitter is extraordinary, but his penchant for walks caps his upside as a pitcher. Oakland has one of the best Medium Hit rates in baseball. Squaring the ball in their cavernous stadium spells trouble if Ohtani is walking hitters. He still rates better than Darvish and Gausman on FanDuel and behind Darvish on DraftKings.
The Detroit Tigers have the second-worst home offense against right-handers despite being two games over .500 at Comerica. Kyle Gibson should be able to slow the Tigers offense that does not possess a lot of power, but how trustworthy is the offense that is supposed to support him? The Rangers have won one road start of Gibson’s on April 13. He does have six quality starts away from Arlington and 10 in 15 total starts. Detroit took care of Gibson in Texas prior to the All-Star break, but he accumulated 25 FanDuel points because of his seven strikeouts. Detroit is a better road offense, so if Gibson can log another strong strikeout performance (24 over his past three starts) he will have a chance to be the best among the higher-priced options.
Value
Ryan Yarbrough has averaged 29.5 FanDuel points in two starts against the Baltimore Orioles, including a 40-point home effort in June. He is the top-rated pitcher on FanDuel and sits atop the Pro Trends tool with Zack Greinke. Baltimore tends to play well against left-handed pitching, but the Orioles’ success has been bloated some by their .323 road BABIP, fifth-highest in baseball.
Caleb Smith has been a mixed bag since being inserted into the Diamondbacks’ rotation, but the team as a whole has been awful. Smith has shut out the Dodgers, stymied the Brewers and Cardinals, and then was blasted by the Giants and Dodgers. Smith’s -21 fantasy point outing July 10 is grotesque. That said, the Pirates are coming to town and they have the worst wRC+ on the road against southpaws. Smith has some of the best strikeout upside at a discount.
Fastballs
Zack Greinke is the top-rated pitcher on DraftKings and second on FanDuel. Despite taking two of three from Oakland over the weekend, Cleveland only managed 11 runs. The Astros will be looking to get on track against the Indians, who are still missing two of their best pitchers. Cleveland starter Jean Carlos Mejia has allowed six runs in three of his past four starts, including against the Astros prior to the break. The Astros are projected to beat the Indians by 1.7 runs and are –225 favorites.
Tony Gonsolin has one win since coming back from injury. It was in relief July 1. It is logical to like his 2.13 ERA, but he has only qualified for a win as a starter once this season. Gonsolin’s upside is tied to strikeouts, something the Giants do plenty on the road (27.4 percent rate against righties on the road).
Notable Stack
Despite not having the higher team projection in the own game, the New York Mets top FanDuel’s stack tool:
- Pete Alonso (R)
- Jeff McNeil (L)
- J.D. Davis (R)
- Brandon Nimmo (L)
Total Salary: $12,400
The return of J.D. Davis is great for the Mets’ offense. In his first series back off the IL, Davis collected three hits Saturday, including two home runs. Alonso came off his Home Run Derby win to log four hits and start a three-game hitting streak. Nimmo is the top-rated hitter of this quadrant and had eight walks over the weekend. Nimmo and Alonso are top-10 rated hitters on both platforms.
Other Hitters
The Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds are the only two teams with a Team Value Rating over 90 on FanDuel. The Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks top DraftKings.
Back to the Reds, briefly. Jonathan India is the top-rated hitter on both sites and is a pairing with the Mets stack. He reached base in all three games against the Brewers this past weekend.
Adam Duvall is 10-for-33 with two homers and a three walks against Jon Lester.
Not to be outdone by Duvall, Marlins teammate Miguel Rojas is slashing .385/.385/.692 against Lester in 13 at-bats.
A handful of Dodgers have had success against Gausman. Cody Bellinger is not one of them. He has a .343 OPS and 6:1 K/BB ratio against the Giants’ Cy Young candidate.
In a very small sample size, John Nogowski has one RBI in 11 at-bats against left-handed pitchers compared to seven against righties in 49 at-bats. He is hitting .455 against lefties but is also buoyed by a .385 BABIP. He has been hot since starting for the Pirates but the question is when does the bottom fall out?
Photo Credit: Will Newton/Getty Images
Pictured: Ryan Yarbrough
