Friday brings us a 14-game main slate with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
What a spot for Jack Flaherty tonight. He is the No. 1 rated pitcher for DraftKings on the Bales Model.
It has become quite evident that the Colorado Rockies’ offense struggles outside of Coors Field this year. This has always tended to be the case, but a stark difference exists this year. They average 5.94 runs per game at home and 3.38 on the road.
Flaherty gets to face the Rockies at home tonight.
After his Opening Day start, Flaherty has stabilized as the St. Louis Cardinals’ ace. Since then, he has a quality start in four out of his five starts and has given up a total of seven earned runs.
Flaherty hits for seven Pro Trends this evening, and the Rockies have an implied run total of 3.1, which is tied for the lowest on the slate.
He is not as attractive on FanDuel just due to his relative price, but this is a smash spot on DraftKings.
Blake Snell is highly rated on both sites on the Bales Model.
There continues to be one problem with Snell — he does not last long in games. He has yet to complete six innings on the season, which means he has not had the chance to qualify for a quality start.
Of course, the trade-off is that he is quite elite at striking opponents out, as he has 37 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings. It is intuitive, but it takes at least three pitches to strike a hitter out.
Tonight will be his third time facing the San Francisco Giants in 2021. So far, he has gone 10 innings, giving up three earned runs with 14 strikeouts in those starts.
The Giants strike out at the ninth-worst rate in the league at 25.5%, which bolsters Snell’s floor for tonight. They have an implied run total of 3.2.
Snell is just fine for me tonight. He can be usable, but it’s also not the worst thing to fade him either.
No. 2 on the Bales Model on both sites is Charlie Morton, who hits for five Pro Trends.
Looking at Morton’s numbers, they are not amazing to start 2021. He is 2-1 with a 5.08 ERA but a 3.66 FIP. That would mean he’s getting slightly unlucky when giving up runs and his ERA should come down.
This will also be his third time facing his opponent, the Phillies, this year. In his previous two starts, he combined for 11 innings with four earned runs and 12 strikeouts.
Those numbers could have looked even better, as these were his first two starts of the season, and he averaged 79.5 pitches per start. In his following four starts, he has averaged 95.5 pitches per start.
He pops on the Bales Model because the Phillies have the second-worst K% in MLB at 27.9%. That does not seem to be properly reflected in his price on either site. If you want to pay down a bit, this is a good spot.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack of the night belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
- 5. Rafael Devers (L)
- 4. Xander Bogaerts (R)
- 3. J.D. Martinez (R)
- 2. Alex Verdugo (L)
This group of four is projected for 48.6 FanDuel points on a $15,200 salary. A big caution here is that this game is the most likely game to be rained out on the slate. A much smaller caution is that they face Matt Harvey, who must be beginning to think of his 2021 as “The Dark Knight Returns.”
Clearly, the Bales Model is not buying into that just yet. The Red Sox offense has been potent, as they are top-five in avoiding strikeouts and have the most runs scored at 166. The Red Sox boast an implied run total of 5.1.
Other Hitters
D.J. LeMahieu is priced way too low on FanDuel, which makes him the Bales Model’s favorite there. He hits at the top of the order in an AL East ballpark with excellent power hitters behind him. On top of that, he seems to be finding his swing of late and gets to face a left-handed pitcher tonight. He has been on-base three times in five games in May.
It could be buy-low time for Mookie Betts. He has not been himself this season, hitting under .250 with only three home runs. Just Wednesday night, he put up an 0-for-6 mark with three strikeouts. It has begun to drive down his price, as he is $3,900 on FanDuel — $500 cheaper than a month ago. Griffin Canning does not really scare me, and it’s tough to think Betts hits this way for the whole season. The second-best stack of the night was the Dodgers’ top of the lineup, too.
Tonight could be a decent spot for Mitch Garver, who is also a bargain on the Bales Model. He has had a rather tough start to 2021 as well. However, since April 28, he is 7-for-20 with four home runs. We know the power numbers should be there for him, and even with his tough start to the season, there are only three catchers who have more home runs than him (Buster Posey, Salvador Perez, and Willson Contreras). He gets to face Tarik Skubal tonight, a mediocre left-hander.
Photo Credit: Justin Edmonds/Getty Images.
Pictured: Charlie Blackmon.
