Sunday’s main slate on FanDuel features nine games, starting at 1:05 pm ET. DraftKings’ main slate also includes the Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians game that’s only scheduled for seven innings.
Projected weather is a concern in three games: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals; Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox; and, Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Pitchers
The highest rated pitcher on Bales Model for FanDuel is Eduardo Rodriguez from the Boston Red Sox. As mentioned, the weather is a major concern in this game as precipitation is listed at 75% and 92% humidity. After winning five of his first six starts to begin the 2021 season, Rodriguez has lost his last two times on the mound. In his most recent nine innings pitched; he has allowed 16 hits while giving up nine earned runs. Hoping to regain his April form, Rodriguez will be taking on the Miami Marlins who are currently on a three-game losing streak.
The highest rated pitcher on Bales Model for DraftKings is Max Scherzer from the Washington Nationals. Scherzer has been decent to start the year, but I feel many expect better from the former Cy Young winner. Although his strikeout numbers are still great, he has allowed 10 home runs in 10 starts this season. Scherzer will be pitching against the Milwaukee Brewers who have the fifth most steam strikeouts in MLB (515). Another reason to back the Nationals’ right-handed ace is that the Brewers have the lowest projected runs total on the slate (3).
Pitching in the same game against Max Scherzer is another highly rated pitcher on Bales Model, Brandon Woodruff. This year, Woodruff has emerged as the best pitching option on the Milwaukee Brewers staff as his numbers are flashy. In 64 innings pitched, Woodruff has an ERA of 1.41, 73 strikeouts, and 0.70 WHIP. This afternoon he is taking on the Washington Nationals who are currently on a three-game losing streak of their own. The Nationals have the second lowest projected implied runs total on the slate (3.1).
Before getting into the value plays, lets discuss a top pitching option that has no weather concerns to worry about, Lucas Giolito. Although his ERA of 4.04 is not pretty, he has struck out 66 batters in 55.2 innings. He is facing the Baltimore Orioles who are currently on a 12-game losing streak. This is a perfect spot for Giolito to amend his early season earned run average.
Value
Kyle Freeland COL
Ross Stripling TOR
Matt Shoemaker MIN
These are the three value plays to consider that stand out on Bales Model for being highly rated. Ross Stripling and Matt Shoemaker have both been extremely inconsistent, while Kyle Freeland has only made one start this year. Rostering one of these value options may be the key to winning on today’s main slate as it will allow for some salary relief within your lineup. Out of the three, I am planning to use Kyle Freeland as he had little to no rust in his first start of the campaign. My only concern with Freeland is that he allowed three walks in his four innings pitched. It will be extremely important for the Colorado Rockies pitcher to throw strikes to keep his pitch count down and take advantage of the NL Central worst, Pittsburgh Pirates.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack comes to you from the minus-218 Chicago White Sox:
- Tim Anderson (R)
- Nick Madrigal (R)
- Yoan Moncada (S)
- Jose Abreu (R)
Projected to have the highest implied runs total on the slate of 5.2, the White Sox batters will look to take advantage of the Baltimore Orioles who have lost 12 consecutive games. In their first 51 games of the year, the White Sox have scored the sixth most runs in MLB (255), while the Orioles have allowed the fifth most runs (264) in 52 games played. On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $13.9k in salary and are projected for a combined 47.4 fantasy points.
Other Hitters
Bales Model predicts the two highest floor plays on the slate are DJ LeMahieu and Nelson Cruz. Both batters play for high scoring teams and have reached base safely in six and five games respectively. Although thought of to be a power hitter, Nelson Cruz has hit for an average above .300 the past two years. This season his current average is .284 and he also has 10 home runs in 155 at bats.
Another strong batting option to consider is Kyle Garlick from the Minnesota Twins. Garlick has hit two home runs in his last three games and is scheduled to leadoff for the team that has a projected runs total of 4.8. Garlick and the Twins will be facing Brad Keller from the Kansas City Royals who has allowed at least one run in each of his 10 starts.
Value
Lastly, here is a handful of value batters to consider while completing your lineups:
- Rafael Ortega
- Nomar Mazara
- Yonathan Daza
- Kyle Farmer
- Adam Frazier
