Monday’s main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings have the same amount of games, but not the same games. To eliminate any confusion, today’s DFS breakdown will focus on FanDuel’s main slate offering. It does not include either White Sox-Indians doubleheader game or later games.
The main slate features nine games and locks at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
A mixed bag of pitchers tops FanDuel’s pitcher pricing:
- Corbin Burnes (R) $10,600, MIL vs DET
- Rich Hill (L) $9,600, TB @ NYY
- Jose Berrios (R) $9,100, MIN @ BAL
If you like high ownership and a heavy favorite, do I have a pitcher for you! The walks streak has been the focal point of his season but Corbin Burnes has also increased his strikeout rate to 14.37 Strikeouts Per 9 and continued his 2020 ways of not allowing home runs. Burnes and the Brewers are heavy favorites at home against the Detroit Tigers. Detroit surprised this weekend by sweeping the New York Yankees but is still the third-worst offense according to Offensive WAR. The Tigers have one of the better Home Run-to-Flyball (HR/FB) ratios on the road against right-handed pitching but neutralizes it by having one of the highest Soft Hit percentages (Soft%) and striking out at the highest percentage.
Burnes is a favorite to win the Cy Young and should get his counting stats.
On paper, Rich Hill has a difficult matchup. But digging in a little and it looks whelming. Not over, not under, but whelming. The Yankees have a 104 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) at home against lefties and have a low Hard Hit percentage and high Soft%. New York puts the ball in play 69.9% of the time against southpaws at Yankee Stadium, one of the highest home rates in the league. Hill has two wins and has averaged 45 FanDuel points against the Yankees this season. Today will be his first start against them on the road. The matchup and price will keep Hill’s ownership lower than what it should be.
José Berrios is not the staff ace that Twins fans hoped he would be, but he has been excellent in 2021. He pitched against the Orioles six days ago and logged a win by going 5 2/3 innings and collecting a 7:2 K/BB ratio. Berrios was an out away from a quality start and pitching deep into games can be an issue. The good thing is the Orioles are on a 13-game losing streak, a majority of which has been on the road. Baltimore has the third-lowest HR/FB at home and is reeling. Berrios tops the Bales Model projections and is the second-rated pitcher behind Burnes. The two lead the position with six Pro Trends.
Values
Chris Paddack ($7,500) has a scary floor on the road against the Chicago Cubs. He has counteracted his floor lately by striking out batters and displaying control. Paddack has two starts in which he logged six innings and they were his last two outings, a good sign that he is being trusted. He has also allowed just eight hits and three earned runs and has a 10:3 K/BB in his last three starts (16 innings). The Cubs do strike out at a high clip at home, but they also hit better at Wrigley Field. The wind is projected to be blowing out at nine mph, something Paddack will have to battle as a flyball pitcher.
Dylan Bundy ($6,400) is having a rough 2021. He has his worst ERA and HR/FB of his career and the Angels are struggling. Bundy and DFS players should have optimism about his matchup against the Giants in San Francisco. His peripherals say he is a better pitcher by almost three runs (6.50 ERA), he has the second-highest BABIP of his career, he gets to pitch in one of the better pitcher parks in baseball and he has the sixth best Consistency rating of projected starters. The Giants are league-average at home and strike out a lot. Beyond a strong walk rate, the offense does not much else well. Bundy has the best Projected Plus/Minus among pitchers.
Fastballs
Charlie Morton ($8,800) has bounced back his last two starts after a horrendous start to his Braves career. He has a top-three projection against the Washington Nationals in a home start. If Morton continues to miss bats, he could be the value pitcher of the slate.
Jameson Taillon ($7,700) rates well today but is a fade for me. The Tampa Bay Rays are the best road offense against righties, leading the league in OPS, Weighted On Base Average (wOBA), wRC+, walk percentage, and are second in runs scored, average, and OBP. The Yankees should bounce back at home but could be in a slug fest with the Rays.
James Kaprielian ($8,000) has been excellent in three starts for the Oakland Athletics. He has scored at least 36 FanDuel points in each start and gets a rematch against the Mariners in Seattle. The M’s are the only team with a team average below .200 and have the highest Soft% against right handers at home.
Notable Stack
The Bales Model is picking on the Orioles today:
- Josh Donaldson (R)
- Jorge Polanco (S)
- Nelson Cruz (R)
- Alex Kirilloff (L)
Total Salary: $12,400
The first thing that jumps out about this Twins’ stack is its low projected ownership. Road stacks are not necessarily popular and have higher volatility, but the Twins have hit better in May and take on a team they swept last week. Polanco and Donaldson are top-10 rated players while Cruz and Donaldson have top-10 hitter projections against Jorge López. The Twins are tied for the third-highest projected team total. Miguel Sanó is another option for a Twins stack and saves $400 if you replace Kirilloff with him.
Other Hitters
Padres-Cubs has a high projected game total, but that was with Trevor Williams listed as the Cubs starter. Williams had an emergency appendectomy and it appears Keegan Thompson will make the spot start. He prevented the Dodgers from scoring in 3 2/3 innings pitched in his lone start. Padres hitters may have their projections changed based on the news.
Kolten Wong has a better wOBA and slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers this season than righties. Southpaw Tyler Alexander will toe the rubber for the Tigers in Milwaukee.
Ronald Acuña Jr. ($4,400) is the only hitter priced above $3,700 with a top-10 rating in the Bales Model.
Freddie Freeman is 5-for-10 lifetime against Nationals starter Joe Ross. He has two home runs, four RBI, four walks, and only one strikeout against him.
#NarrativeStreet play for today is Victor Caratini. Despite the change at pitcher, Caratini is returning to Chicago for the first time since being traded to San Diego this offseason. He rates third among catchers on FanDuel’s C/1B hybrid position and is a pivot off using first basemen.
Photo Credit: Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images
Pictured: Rich Hill
