A lot of fun games this evening and one of the deeper pitching slates so far this season.
Monday’s main slate features nine games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
A lot to like among the elite-priced starting pitchers on FanDuel:
- Corbin Burnes (R) $11,100, MIL vs MIA
- Julio Urias (L) $9,900, LAD vs CIN
- Trevor Rogers (L) $9,600, MIA @ MIL
- Tyler Mahle (R), $9,300, CIN @ LAD
- Shohei Ohtani (R), $9,100, LAA @ TEX
No surprise to see Corbin Burnes atop the pricing list as he continues his historic start to 2021. The Miami Marlins head to Milwaukee after losing three of four to the Giants by the Bay and have seen their offensive production plummet. After scoring 11 runs in their four-game series, Miami fell to 23rd in Offensive WAR and are now possess one of the 10 worst team strikeout rates. The Brewers’ offense is worse but has at least improved. Regardless of the outcome, Burnes is in line to rack up fantasy points and a quality start barring a collapse. Burnes is a top-five option on both sites according to the Bales Model.
The Los Angeles Dodgers used six pitchers in their extra-inning loss to San Diego Sunday night. Luckily, Julio Urías has pitched into the sixth inning in each start this season despite mixed results. Urías leads or tops the position in Pro Trends on FanDuel and DraftKings despite his test against the Cincinnati Reds. Like the Dodgers, the Reds have an elite Hard Hit rate and sport a higher slugging percentage. Cincy strikes out more against southpaws and is league-average as an offense. Urías will need to pitch well coming out of another big series against the Padres.
Trevor Rogers and Tyler Mahle get to showcase their talents on the road and have opportunities to stake their claims as two of the better young pitchers in baseball. Rogers has figured out how to be a power pitcher with control, while Mahle has continued his success from 2020. Neither is in a prime position as road underdogs, but both have the talent to ruin the upside of their pitching opponent, especially Rogers against the Brewers’ offense. Despite an improved approach, the Brewers strike out 32% of the time against lefties.
If you have the opportunity to watch Shohei Ohtani pitch this evening, please do. We may never see a player like him again – a dominant pitcher and hitter. He will only accumulate points as a pitcher this evening despite slotting into the top of the batting order. Ohtani is not cheap and has failed to pitch five innings in either start this season. He has an 85% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is $1,400 cheaper than on FanDuel. The Rangers are not a threat to Ohtani, but the Angels’ offense has struggled with inconsistency and injuries and have depended on Ohtani early on (seven home runs, .983 OPS).
Values
Anthony DeSclafani is my favorite pitcher this evening as he continues his reclamation tour with the San Francisco Giants. DeSclafani has already pitched at home against his opponent, the Colorado Rockies. He scored 52 FanDuel points, struck out eight in six innings and collected the win and a quality start. The Rockies are still not good on offense and carry a Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 51 away from Coors Field this season. DeSclafani is $6,800 on FanDuel and has a 95% Bargain Rating.
You can also make the case that saving $800 on FanDuel for Colorado’s Austin Gomber is the way to go. He is also $1,400 cheaper on DraftKings. Gomber has increased his fantasy point production in each start since his seven-walk blowup to open his season. He has also seen his walk drop or plateau in his last three starts.
Seattle has issues against lefties (there is a theme). José Urquidy is not a strikeout pitcher, but the Mariners are top 10 in strikeout rate (while also taking walks well against southpaws). Urquidy is the lowest of this trio who I would target, but the savings are there and the Bales Model sees him as a top-five option on FanDuel.
Fastballs
It is going to be warm in St. Louis. Zack Wheeler and Adam Wainwright have seen their hard hit percentages go up so far in 2021 and the wind is expected to be blowing out to left field. Fair warning in case you consider either.
Deivi García gets his first start of the season tonight for the New York Yankees. He is not a heavy strikeout pitcher but could be on the right side of a decision with Matt Harvey going for the Baltimore Orioles. The Yankees have the highest projected team total at 5.1 runs.
Charlie Morton is the top-rated pitcher on FanDuel, and second on DraftKings. After a run-scoring bender, the Chicago Cubs turned back into a pumpkin over the weekend. The concern for Morton is the Cubs have found their power stroke, which was bound to show with the pop in their lineup. The veteran has allowed a homer in each of his last two starts. Morton has pitched six innings in each of his past three starts and continues to strike out more than one batter per inning.
Notable Stack
Will positive regression help today’s highest projected FanDuel stack?
- Freddie Freeman (L)
- Ozzie Albies (S)
- Marcell Ozuna (R)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
Total Salary: $22,700
That is a big chunk of salary especially after the Braves were one-hit over 14 innings Sunday. In comes Zach Davies of the Cubs. He has allowed 32 baserunners and 15 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings pitched. The get-right narrative is in play.
Also feel free to target Yankees hitters, who have a top-two Team Value Rating on FanDuel and DraftKings against Matt Harvey.
Other Hitters
The top-rated hitter on DraftKings is David Fletcher. I will continue to fade Fletcher until he figures out how to walk again (6.5% Walk Rate drop) because he offers little outside of being on base.
DJ LeMahieu has not been hitting like projected, but has good peripherals. His Expected Slugging (xSLG) and Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) are significantly higher than his actual numbers. Matt Harvey is a good cure for what ails him. Lock him in at $2,900 on FanDuel.
Mark Canha has scored fantasy points in 18 of 21 games this season and is not going to kill your salary. He is averaging double-digit points on both platforms and has an A+ matchup against Rich Hill.
One of the main reasons Colorado had a good series against the Phillies? Raimel Tapia. He does not get hurt by the Coors Field effect because he’s not a power-driven hitter. Tapia has been their leadoff hitter and is in the midst of a seven-game hitting streak and his salary dropped on FanDuel. I like DeSclafani for the Giants, but I am OK rostering Tapia knowing his ability to get on base.
Pictured: Corbin Burnes
Photo Credit: Denis Poroy/Getty Images
