Wednesday offers a large main slate. With 12 games on the docket, there is plenty of ways to construct MLB DFS lineups. Lock is at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Big slate, small group of elite-priced pitching:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,500, NYY @ MIN
- Lance Lynn (R) $10,800, CHW vs TOR
- Austin Gomber (L) $9,500, COL @ MIA
There will be a lot of attention given to Gerrit Cole because of his foreign substance comments made, and a trip on #NarrativeStreet may keep a few DFS players away from him. May was not kind to Cole. He had two starts where he allowed five earned runs, a feat he only accomplished once in 2020.
His matchup against the Twins looks good based on records, but Minnesota is around league average on offense at home against right-handed pitching. Minnesota possesses at top 10 BB/K ratio but have suffered from a lack of power hitting, BABIP, and a bottom 10 Line Drive percentage (LD%).
You cannot hit for power if you cannot square up the ball. Cole’s Home Run-to-Flyball (HR/FB) rate is down to 9.4 percent this season and is in the midst of his second-best K-BB% season of his career.
Cole is the top rated pitcher on DraftKings according to the Bales Model and is a top five option on FanDuel. The Yankees are also the largest favorite according to the FantasyLabs Vegas Model.
Lance Lynn has been Chicago’s most consistent pitcher this season (sorry Carlos Rodon) and gets Game 2 of their series against the Toronto Blue Jays. His hot start to 2021 has cooled some, but he has still posted three consecutive 40-point fantasy outings on FanDuel. There are two concerns with Lynn — the Blue Jays hitters and potential lingering tightness he felt after his last start.
The 34-year old has regression coming if you believe his expected stats. His 1.23 ERA is 1.41 runs lower than his Expected ERA (xERA) and 2.85 runs below his Expected Fielder Independent Pitching (xFIP). The Blue Jays have a top 10 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) on the road against righties and is unsurprisingly top 10 in average, slugging, and OPS. Lynn is one of my fades despite ranking behind only Cole on DraftKings.
Austin Gomber now has more starts with zero walks than three or more. After the way he started this season, this is nothing short of awesome. He also has pitched at least six innings and has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched in three of his past four starts.
The Miami Marlins have been in the top half of the league in offense, nickel-and-diming their way to runs (see last night’s game). Miami has the third lowest HR/FB at home against left-handed pitching. The offense can also be had at the plate, striking out 27.8% against lefties at home.
I am shocked to see him priced at $9,500, but his $6,000 salary on DraftKings is bad pricing. He has a 99% Bargain Rating at DraftKings.
Values
Shane McClanahan is the top rated pitcher on FanDuel and leads the position in Pro Trends on both sites. The Washington Nationals have the lowest projected team total and Nats-Rays is tied for the lowest projected game total. McClanahan is averaging 30-plus FanDuel points in three home starts this season.
Casey Mize has exceeded projections in six straight outings and seven of nine in 2021. He gets the toothless Mariners offense in Detroit. The Mariners have some pop in their lineup, but it took a hit with Kyle Lewis’s injury. One of Mize’s issues has been home runs, particularly the first time through a lineup.
He has allowed five in 24 2/3 innings pitched the first go-round. He has allowed five the remaining 40 innings pitched and his slugging percentage against drops 80 points from .430 to approximately .350.
Jean Carlos Mejia pitched three innings in his first start of 2021 after working out of the bullpen. He was limited to 50 pitches but struck out two and only allowed two baserunners. He gets the Cardinals in St. Louis, where the Redbirds have an 87 wRC+ against righties. For under $6,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings, there are worse ways to get fantasy points and a surprise win.
Fastballs
Tony Gonsolin will make his first start of the season for the Los Angeles Dodgers in Pittsburgh. It is safe to expect a shorter outing in his first appearance and is a fade for me, especially at $9,100 on DraftKings. He does rate as the second rated pitcher on FanDuel if you want to use him as leverage.
Griffin Canning has positive regression in his future, but I believe it does not come against the Royals. Kansas City has the best LD% on the road against right handers and Canning is suffering from a .309 BABIP, 10.7 Barrel percentage, and 43.8 Hard Hit percentage.
Notable Stack
The offense with the fourth-highest Team Value Rating on FanDuel tops projections:
- Dominic Smith (L)
- Jonathan Villar (S)
- Francisco Lindor (S)
- Pete Alonso (R)
Total Salary: $13,300
Villar and Lindor are top 10 rated hitters on FanDuel and DraftKings against Matt Harvey and the Baltimore Orioles. Only three players have higher fantasy projections than Alonso on both platforms. The Mets are projected to score 5.1 runs.
Other Hitters
Danny Santana has replaced Enrique Hernandez as my favorite Red Sox hitter to fade. Santana is once again the top rated hitter on both sites despite sitting out the past two games. The switch-hitter has two singles and one walk in June and is hitting a robust .125 in 13 games overall. Hard pass.
Is Robby Dobnak the cure for what ails D.J. LeMahieu? He has hits in five of seven June games (seven total), but only has one RBI to show for his recent successes. His RBI last night was his first since May 19.
Dansby Swanson does not have a multi-hit game since May 21, but since then he has a hit in all but two games. He is also a .435 career hitter against Phillies starter Zach Eflin. His 1.415 OPS against Eflin is his fourth best against any pitcher.
Justin Turner is a top five third base option on both sites. He has a career slash line of .484/.528/.710 against Pirates starter Tyler Anderson.
Sticky weather could factor into three games – Atlanta-Philadelphia, Los Angeles-Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee-Cincinnati. All three have less than 50 percent chance of rain, but high humidity and cloud coverage is not ideal baseball conditions.
Pictured above: Austin Gomber #26 of the Colorado Rockies
Photo credit: Abbie Parr/Getty Images
