Wednesday’s eight-game main slate is low on pitching depth and high on offense. Lock is at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Only two pitchers are priced above $9,000 on FanDuel:
- Alek Manoah (R) $10,000, TOR vs MIA
- Walker Buehler (R) $9,700, LAD vs STL
I did not expect to see Alek Manoah get this much DFS love after one start, but here we are. Manoah is priced as the SP7 and $1,800 cheaper on DraftKings. The value may be on DraftKings but I also understand why FanDuel wanted to price the rookie higher. He pitched well in his first career start on the road in Yankee Stadium. He has good stuff and time to improve as he gains experience. Manoah also gets the Miami Marlins in his first “home” start in Buffalo. Miami is a contact-based offense that has power issues and an elevated BABIP on the road against right-handed pitching. The Bales Model projects Manoah to have the third-worst fantasy point outing, but he is in the top-10 rated options because of a lack of trustworthy options, among other reasons.
No surprise that Walker Buehler is the top-rated pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings. He has an 83% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, saw his salary drop $300 on FanDuel and is a heavy favorite against the St. Louis Cardinals. Favored by 1.7 runs, Buehler and the Dodgers will have excellent weather as they attempt to win their series against St. Louis. Buehler leads all pitcher with nine Pro Trends on both platforms. The future of the Dodgers will command ownership. Despite a lack of wins, Buehler has eight quality starts in 10 games started, good for bonus points on FanDuel.
Values
It is great to see Framber Valdez pitching after fracturing a finger on his throwing hand. The Houston Astros have handled the Boston Red Sox in their current series. The Red Sox are below average against left-handed pitching on the road (91 Weighted Runs Created Plus) despite having a solid team batting average and OBP. The Red Sox have a .303 BABIP against southpaws and still cannot provide offense, a good omen for Valdez. He only pitched four innings in his first start of 2021, so the hope is he gets to five, collects his strikeouts, and gets offensive support. Valdez’s salary is down $1,500 on FanDuel and $400 on DraftKings. He is a top-five pitcher on both platforms.
The Tampa Bay Rays are bottom 10 in wRC+, OBP, and OPS and have one of the higher BABIPs against lefties in road games. Tampa also has the second-worst Hard Hit percentage (Hard%) and third-highest Soft Hit percentage (Soft%) in the same scenario. Jordan Montgomery is an up-and-down pitcher, alternating 50-point and single-digit FanDuel point outings over his last four starts. He also strikes out a better per inning and is in line for some positive regression from his 4.22 ERA. It would be nice to see the Yankees’ offense click for Montgomery because a no-decision would be tough to see based on his positive matchup. Montgomery has a 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Fastballs
Jon Lester and Matt Harvey are expected to start on three days rest for the Nationals and Orioles, respectively. Unless you project either pitcher to strike out nine batters in three innings of work, avoid both.
The Seattle Mariners have a 27.3 Soft% at home against southpaws, 5.5% worse than the next worse team. Batters also strike out 33.8% of the time in that scenario. The Mariners offense also will be without Kyle Lewis with a meniscus tear. Sean Manaea is in a smash spot against Seattle.
Notable Stack
The game with the highest projected total gives us the top stack on FanDuel:
- C.J. Cron (R)
- Charlie Blackmon (L)
- Ryan McMahon (L)
- Yonathan Daza (R)
Total Salary: $13,600
The key to this stack is Yonathan Daza. The assumption is Raimel Tapia would be in this stack, but adding Tapia in place of Daza would cost $800 more and score 0.4 fewer FanDuel points. Daza is six for his las 10 with one run, one RBI, one walk, and zero strikeouts. Rangers-Rockies is projected for 11 runs. All five Rockies mentioned are top-15 hitters on both platforms, with Tapia the top hitter.
Other Hitters
Willie Calhoun and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are top-10 rated hitters on FanDuel and DraftKings and make for optimal game stack options with the Rockies. Nate Lowe is also a top-10 hitter on DraftKings.
As of 12:30 p.m. ET, each game on the main slate has a projected game total of eight runs or higher.
Mark Canha scored zero fantasy points three times in May and is only $3,200 on FanDuel. Mariners starter Chris Flexen topped 20 FanDuel points once in May and it took until his final start to do so.
The top-rated hitter that is not on Colorado or Texas is Mookie Betts. He has a 90% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is the No. 6 rated player on both sites.
Cedric Mullins has done well against the Minnesota Twins this season. In five games, he has seven hits, three for extra bases, two RBI, two stolen bases, three walks and only three strikeouts. He is $2,900 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings.
Photo Credit: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
Pictured: Alek Manoah
