Monday’s main slate features seven games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. It looks like a Chamber of Commerce day weather-wise for all contests.
Pitchers
Four pitchers top FanDuel’s pricing:
- Shohei Ohtani (R) $11,000, LAA @ COL
- Germán Márquez (R) $10,200, COL vs LAA
- Luis Garcia (R) $10,000, HOU @ SEA
- Wade Miley (L) $9,600, CIN @ CHC
Shohei Ohtani has a fun matchup against Colorado in Anaheim. He will hit for himself, per usual, but will have to hope the Rockies do not figure him out. The Rockies’ offense has a miserable 61 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) at home. The Rockies are 16th in HR/FB ratio and top 10 in GB/FB ratio.
If Ohtani can continue Colorado’s offense, he should be in line for a win. Ohtani is also much better pitching at home (1.87 road ERA). He has allowed four home runs at home this season. Ohtani rates as the top pitcher on DraftKings according to the Bales Model.
Opposite Ohtani is Germán Márquez. Marquez has a 3.89 road ERA and a slash line against of .237/.301/.382. The Angels are a middle-of-the-road offense. Márquez rates higher on DraftKings than FanDuel, but I am not shying away from him against an offense still missing Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout.
The Astros and Mariners are two of seven teams with plus-.500 records against plus-.500 teams. Luis Garcia has his work cut out for him against the Mariners, who are 32-21 at home despite being one of the worst home offenses in baseball. Garcia may have a more difficult time getting a win, but he has the opportunity to rack of strikeouts; the Mariners strike out 26 percent of the time in home games against right-handed pitching. Garcia also has the second-highest projection in the Bales Model and maintains value despite being a pricier option.
Part of Wade Miley’s success in 2021 is tied to his best HR/FB and walk rates since 2012. He has to limit both in a tough matchup in Chicago against the Cubs. Only one team has a better wRC+ at home against left-handed pitching, and the Cubs’ core is on the verge of being split as the trade deadline approaches. Miley rates the lowest among the four top-tier pitchers.
Value
Michael Pineda is the top-rated pitcher on FanDuel. Pineda is a trade candidate and is pitching for a potential role on a different team. He could also be scratched if a trade is imminent. The Twins are –171 favorites at home against the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have the highest strikeout rate in road games against righties.
Fastballs
Spencer Howard has not pitched more than four innings in an outing in 2021.
Nick Pivetta has a slash line of .362/.422/.667 against Blue Jays hitters.
Dallas Keuchel has a .549 OPS against Kansas City Royals hitters and has allowed one home run in 100 at-bats.
Notable Stack
We head back to the Twin Cities for the top stack on FanDuel:
- Miguel Sanó (R)
- Jorge Polanco (S)
- Josh Donaldson (R)
- Max Kepler (L)
Total Salary: $12,500
Polanco, Donaldson, and Kepler are top-10 hitters on both platforms. The trio also leads the position in Pro Trends. The Twins are projected to score 5.7 runs against the Tigers.
Other Hitters
Joey Votto has 12 hits (three homers) and a 7:13 K/BB ratio against Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks.
Salvador Perez has four hits in 27 at-bats against Dallas Keuchel. Save your salary on DraftKings for another position.
Jean Segura has an 84% Bargain Rating on DraftKings against Joe Ross and the Nationals. He is hitting .500 against Ross in his career, but all eight hits have been singles.
Xander Bogaerts has a 94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. His run production is down but he has reached base in all but three games since the All-Star break. At $3,500 it is difficult to pass on one of the best players in the game.
Photo Credit: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
