Death. Taxes. A monster, midweek Major League Baseball main slate.
It appears FanDuel is not including Mets-Nationals in their main slate offering as of yet because of Tuesday’s suspended game. If it were to get added, check out the Bales Model for the latest ratings, or hit me up on Twitter @_jeff_hicks_. Because of this, Wednesday’s article will focus on FanDuel’s 10-game offering.
Pitchers
A strong showing at the pitcher position, including the top-priced options:
- Corbin Burnes (R) — $11,000, MIL @ CHC
- Kevin Gausman (R) — $10,300, SF vs ARI
- Adam Wainwright (R) — $9,600, STL @ PIT
- Alek Manoah (R) — $9,400, TOR @ LAA
- Frankie Montas (R) — $9,100, OAK @ CLE
Corbin Burnes against the husk of the Chicago Cubs offense? Mark me down as interested. The only reason he is not sitting atop the Bales Model pitcher ratings is salary and pitching on the road. Burnes has the highest strikeout rate among probable starters. Rain has hit Chicago each of the past two days and while there is only a 12 percent chance of rain with hours to go before first pitch, monitor the weather before deploying Burnes.
Kevin Gausman is the top-rated pitcher in a home start against the Diamondbacks. He is also the only high-priced option pitching at home. Gausman has a worse ERA at home (3.34) than on the road (1.55) but is allowing a slash line of .177/.236/.300 by the bay. The Giants are –251 favorites against Arizona.
Whatever Adam Wainwright is doing to remain this good while approaching 40 needs to be sold to the public. His actual ERA is in line with his expected numbers, an amazing feat considering the team playing around him. Wainwright is hittable in road starts including allowing a .424 slugging percentage. The long-time Cardinal has faced the Pirates once this season, at home, and went six innings allowing one run with eight strikeouts. His low expected ownership gives him a 73 percent Leverage score.
Alek Manoah has scored at least 27 FanDuel points in every start since June 19. That includes two starts against Tampa Bay (91 combined fantasy points) and one against Boston (27). Manoah is a top-five option, but runs into an Angels offense that is eighth in wRC+ at home against right-handed pitching. Manoah can rack up strikeouts against the Angels but has run into multiple outings where the high strikeout numbers limits his innings pitched.
Frankie Montas has topped projections in five consecutive starts. One reason for that the increased use of his splitter. Prior to allowing four hits off it August 4, he had yielded two in five July starts. It’s the only pitch that has been used increasingly throughout the 2021 season. If Montas can limit Cleveland’s power bats (.428 home slugging versus RHP), he will be one of the better values at pitcher. He has allowed two home runs since the start of July.
Value
The Texas Rangers are one of the worst road offenses against left-handed pitching. Tyler Anderson has been a tough-luck pitcher since arriving in Seattle, but is lined up for bounce back. In each of his first two starts with the Mariners, Anderson’s ERA was higher than his FIP and xFIP. The Mariners have the second-best moneyline odds and are 33-24 at home.
Fastballs
Jake Arrieta scored 21 fantasy points in his June 25 start against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In four starts since, he has scored 19 combined.
Touki Toussaint has had one bad start since being inserted into the Atlanta rotation. His 4.42 ERA is misleading as he has two excellent starts against San Diego and Philadelphia. Facing the Reds offense is not ideal but with the outfield additions and wide open AL East, the Braves and Toussaint have a lot to play for. It is amazing to think that Toussaint is only 25 after being a focus of trades and prospect watches for years.
Notable Stack
No surprise which offense — the Los Angeles Dodgers — is projected as the best stack:
- Cody Bellinger (L)
- Max Muncy (L)
- Corey Seager (L)
- Trea Turner (R)
Total Salary: $13,500
There is good value with this offense against Kyle Gibson and the Phillies. The Dodgers have a Team Value Rating of 82 on FanDuel. Turner is the fourth-rated hitter on FanDuel and he, Muncy and Seager are in the top 10 using projections. The Dodgers are projected to score 5.4 runs, up from 5.1 when the line for this game opened.
Other Hitters
Kris Bryant and Buster Posey are fans of Merrill Kelly. Bryant has a 1.615 OPS against Kelly, while Posey is close behind with an OPS of 1.118.
Freddie Freeman is hitting .294 against Wade Miley. Four of his five hits against him have gone for extra bases.
Joey Wendle and Austin Meadows each have an OPS over 1.300 against Red Sox starter Nate Eovaldi.
Dylan Bundy has limited Corey Dickerson, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. to two or fewer hits against him in a combined 45 at-bats. Vlad Jr. Has the highest batting average at .200 this season.
