Friday serves up a 13-game main slate with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
There are some very intriguing options at pitcher tonight, so let’s break it down.
The favorite on the Bales Model for DraftKings is Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw has earned a decision in all of his starts this year, sitting at 5-3. His three losses have been clunkers in his book.
A stat that is pretty impressive to me is that Kershaw has allowed only three home runs on the season — and all of them were in the same game. He has not been as strong with his strikeout potential this year but has still been near-elite at run prevention.
Tonight, he faces the Miami Marlins — a bottom-10 offense in terms of K% and runs per game. The Marlins have an implied run total of 2.8, which is the lowest on the slate, and Kershaw hits for eight ProTrends.
The favorite over on FanDuel (and second-best option on DraftKings) is Joe Musgrove. Musgrove has launched onto MLB fans’ radars this season following his no-hitter on April 9.
Musgrove has serious strikeout upside with two double-digit strikeout performances on the season. The issue with Musgrove can be length. If we strip out his no-hitter, he has averaged 5.0 innings per start this season.
I like him tonight for where his price point is at, as it has come down since the beginning of the year.
Max Scherzer pops a lot more on DraftKings than on FanDuel.
It looks like teams know how to try to beat Scherzer this year, and that is via the long ball. He has allowed eight so far this season, with four coming in his last three starts.
That just feels like the case because otherwise, it is quite hard to score off of him.
Scherzer is way above a strikeout per inning and has 23 strikeouts in his last two starts. It feels like he knows his own offense is not going to score a lot, so he feels the pressure to throw as many zeroes on the board as possible.
In his last start against the New York Yankees, he gave up two hits, and one left the yard. He was quoted after the game as being mad for hanging the pitch to Kyle Higashioka — the only run he gave up — and contributing to the Nationals losing.
This is all about price point, and it may be hard to work Scherzer into your lineup. For what it’s worth, the Arizona Diamondbacks are top-10 at avoiding strikeouts and runs per game.
I probably would not use Zack Greinke tonight.
Yes, his opponent, the Texas Rangers, strike out a ton and just generally do not score a lot, but Greinke has lasted exactly four innings in each of his last three starts.
He has 35 strikeouts in 44 2/3 innings this year, so it’s pretty significantly below one per inning.
He is a better play on FanDuel with his relative price. I’d rather have him “show it to me” and come back to him in a start or two.
The pay-down option of the night is David Peterson. He rates out well on both sites, with a slightly better rating on FanDuel.
Peterson and the New York Mets are underdogs tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays and Cillian Murphy lookalike Tyler Glasnow.
This just feels like a really low-scoring game to me (Vegas agrees), and that makes Peterson a great play at his low price.
The Rays exploded for nine runs Thursday night, but that felt like a bit of an aberration. They are the second-most likely team to strike out, and Peterson has 32 strikeouts in 26 innings this season.
Of course, rostering him comes with some risk, as he has had three good/great starts and three blowups. There’s a reason his ERA sits at 5.54.
He very well may not get the win, but I think he hits for value with a decent start.
Hitters
Notable Stack
Shockingly, the top stack of the night is not playing at Coors Field:
- 1. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Alex Bregman (R)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Yordan Alvarez (L)
This group of Houston Astros is projected for 49.3 FanDuel points on $15,300 salary. This comes down to the Bales Model fading Wes Benjamin and the Rangers’ bullpen. The Astros have the highest implied run total of the slate at 5.5. They are the third-highest scoring offense in the MLB. The Rockies’ stack was extremely close to this one — just to not rule out Coors.
Other Hitters
It feels like the Yankees could put up some crooked numbers tonight facing Dean Kremer. Even without Gleyber Torres due to COVID-19, the Yankees adore hitting at Camden Yards. To say Kremer is a below-average starting pitcher in the league right now would be putting it nicely. D.J. LeMahieu should be able to get on base at least twice and is one of the top hitters to roster on the Bales Model.
Another sneaky team to stack would be the Toronto Blue Jays. They have been an excellent offense all season and get to see Vince Velazquez tonight. Marcus Semien and Bo Bichette rate out strongly on the Bales Model. Semien is carrying a 12-game hitting streak into this one, with multiple hits in three of his last four games.
Of course, the Coors Field hitters will push toward the top. The Rockies get to face Wade Miley coming off of his no-hitter performance (he has actually pinch-hit since then). On DraftKings, the entire Rockies team hits for at least five Pro Trends, which is just funny to see. Raimel Tapia has worked his way into more of a household name. Connor Joe has been intriguing since his call-up, as he’s gone 6-for-15 (.400) with eight walks.
The Lineup Optimizer features a lot of Tommy Pham, who has struggled so far this season. It feels like we are still waiting for the San Diego Padres’ offense to realize the season has started. Pham is still awaiting his first home run of the season but is hitting at a better clip in May than April (.222 vs. .179). His price has adjusted down, so he would help fit in Coors bats or Kershaw while still receiving near top-of-the-lineup plate appearances.
Photo Credit: Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images.
Pictured: Clayton Kershaw.
