The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features two games starting at 5:07 pm ET. We will be using Bales Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Pitchers
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today are:
- Brandon Woodruff (R)
- Kevin Gausman (R)
- Max Fried (L)
- Julio Urías (L)
The highest-priced pitcher on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff was extremely effective in the Brewers’ rotation. In 179 1/3 innings, he has a 2.56 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 211 strikeouts. His 10.1 K/9 ranks second on the slate today as Woodruff will be pitching against the Atlanta Braves in Game 2.
In Friday’s game, the only Braves run came off a pinch-hit homer run by Joc Pederson. Woodruff will hope to keep Braves batters off the base paths again today, unlike his July 31st outing where Woodruff allowed eight hits across only 5 1/3 innings. The Braves are projected for the lowest implied runs total on the slate (3.4 runs).
Another pitcher hoping to replicate what was done by a teammate in Game 1 is Kevin Gausman. Gausman has been electric throughout his 2021 campaign. In 192 innings, he struck out 227, had a 2.81 ERA and posted a 14-6 record. The only concern is that Gausman struggled against the Dodgers this year. In 14 innings, he allowed three home runs and eight walks while striking out 16.
Since the start of August, Max Fried has looked like a Cy Young candidate. In 11 outings, Fried had 11 quality starts while continuing to lower his walk rate and picking up seven wins. Although the Brewers picked up the win in Friday’s game, the Brewers are a swing-happy team that strikes out often. Fried is the second-highest rated pitcher in Bales Model as he looks to continue his tremendous form.
It might bes omewhat surprising that a pitcher with a league-high 20 regular season wins is the lowest-rated pitcher on Bales Model, but the Giants have consistently collected hits off Julio Urías. Over 29 1/3 innings against the Giants this season, Urías allowed 31 hits and 12 runs. The Giants’ success presents an opportunity to fade the Dodgers lefty. Being on the mound in a pitcher’s ballpark is always helpful, however there is a projected 11-mph wind blowing out to center field which will favor batters. Urías and the visiting Dodgers have a tough task today, even though oddsmakers back the team from Los Angeles (-112).
Hitters
Notable Stack
Today’s top projected points stack comes to you from the -112 Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Mookie Betts (R)
- Corey Seager (L)
- Trea Turner (R)
- Justin Turner (R)
The Dodgers are projected for the highest implied runs total on the slate today (3.9 runs). On DraftKings, this stack will cost you $20.2K and is projected for a combined 31.1 fantasy points. Although the Dodgers lost Game 1, their stacked lineup is due to bounce back tonight. The regular season series was won by the Giants, 10-9, but the Dodgers outscored the Giants 80-78. If you can’t tell already, this is expected to be an extremely tight series and we fully expect the Dodgers to even it up at a game a piece today.
Other Hitters
The highest-rated batter on Bales Model for DraftKings is Kolten Wong from the Milwaukee Brewers. Wong was hitless in Game 1 but is projected to leadoff for the Brewers who have an implied runs total of 3.7 today. Wong has been a pivotal part of the Brewers’ offense this year as he had a .269 average and 14 home runs. The 14 home runs is a career high for the veteran who does have quite a bit of postseason experience.
Value
Lastly, here is a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups today that are projected for a high fantasy points/salary:
- Matt Beaty
- Eddie Rosario
- Austin Slater
- Manny Pina
- Darin Ruf
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Photo Credit: Getty Images
Pictured: Brandon Woodruff
