The only thing better than holiday leftovers is a solid MLB slate on a Monday. Today’s main slate features nine games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
A trio of pitchers sit atop FanDuel pricing:
- Brandon Woodruff (R) $11,400, MIL @ NYM
- Joe Musgrove (R) $9,600, SD vs WSH
- Max Fried (L) $9,100, ATL @ PIT
Brandon Woodruff leads all pitchers in projected fantasy on FanDuel and DraftKings. The Brewers ace has collected a win and quality start in five of his last seven starts, dipping below 36 FanDuel points once over that span.
Woodruff gets the Mets in New York after they took 2-of-3 from the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. The Mets are league average against right-handed pitchers at home and are slowly improving as the offense gets healthy. Woodruff will have to continue his trajectory of improved control because the Mets rank top-10 in walk rate.
He can also collect his counting stats with New York, which sits top-10 in strikeout rate as well. Woodruff’s $1,000 savings on DraftKings aids in making him a top-two option there and top four on FanDuel.
Joe Musgrove is the top-rated pitcher, according to the Bales Model. Only Woodruff is projected for more fantasy points. Musgrove is priced as the fourth pitcher on DraftKings and leads the position in Pro Trends.
The Nationals travel to San Diego and have been one of the better road offenses in baseball. A .302 BABIP explains in part why their top-10 hard hit rate and home run-to-flyball has led to a 96 wRC+ in road games against righties. Musgrove and the Padres are –214, 1.6-run favorites. Only the Tampa Bay Rays are projected to win by as many runs.
Despite ending a three-game streak of quality starts and at least six innings pitched, Max Fried won his third game in his last four starts.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the higher flyball rates against lefties at home but also have a top-10 soft hit percentage. The offense has produced in spurts and have some players who can be headaches. Fried is not as likely to accumulate strikeouts, but his projected ownership (especially on DraftKings) makes him a target.
Value
Tylor Megill gets the Brewers opposite Woodruff. Milwaukee’s offensive struggles are well documented, and like most road teams, it struggles against right-handed pitching this season. Milwaukee is top-10 in hard hit and HR/FB rates but is also third in groundball-to-flyball ratio. Ten pitchers project to have fewer fantasy points than Megill, but he is priced as the eighth-cheapest option on FanDuel.
Bailey Ober is a dart throw against the White Sox. Chicago’s injuries are catching up to the offense; only two Opening Day starters — Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu — played the majority of their last series against the Tigers. The White Sox also have one of the worst HR/FB rates on the road, as well as one of the highest GB/FB rates.
Fastballs
Rich Hill pops as a top-five option on both sites, but the Indians are a good team against left-handed pitchers, including road games. Cleveland has the third-lowest strikeout rate on the road against southpaws.
The Phillies have the third worst wRC+ on the road against righties. Zach Davies has three wins (five total) at home and has a lower OBP and slugging percentage at home.
Similarly, Detroit has the third worst wRC+ on the road against lefties. Kolby Allard will draw ownership because he is pitching against mediocre team but should be lower owned on FanDuel as one of the higher-priced pitchers.
Allard and Megill are as low as I would go on DraftKings. Allard has pitched six innings in three consecutive starts and has a 12:2 K/BB ratio and two quality starts over that time.
Notable Stack
The offense with the second-highest projected run total is Monday’s notable stack on FanDuel:
- Freddie Freeman (L)
- Ozzie Albies (S)
- Austin Riley (R)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
Total Salary: $14,700
The Braves have seen the largest positive run total movement since lines were made available. Acuna is the only hitter from this stack who is rated as a top-10 hitter on either platform.
Other Hitters
The Chicago Cubs have a Team Value Rating of 99 on FanDuel. They did set the record for longest losing streak after throwing a no-hitter, but it’s not like the offense hasn’t been productive.
The Cubs have alternated between good and bad months, which means July should be productive if you like driving down #NarrativeStreet. The Cubs have the highest projected run total, with Willson Contreras as the top-rated hitter on both sites.
Nelson Cruz is hitting .545 with one home run, five RBIs, and three walks in 14 plate appearances against Dylan Cease.
Andrew Benintendi has his best hard hit percentage at home against right-handers and is also slugging .400. Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez has allowed seven home runs over his past four starts.
Nate Lowe has started July with three two-hit games.
Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer have an OPS over 1.040 against Jon Lester. Conversely, Wil Myers owns a .597 OPS against the veteran lefty.
Photo Credit: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images.
Pictured: Brandon Woodruff.
