We have a ton of daytime baseball dominating Thursday’s main slate. It features 10 games and locks at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Some familiar names are priced at the top of the slate. Here are the high-priced pitchers on FanDuel:
- Shane Bieber (R) $11,500, CLE vs KC
- Trevor Bauer (R) $11,000, LAD @ OAK
- Blake Snell (L) $9,800, SD vs SF
- Aaron Nola (R) $9,100, PHI vs NYM
- Kenta Maeda (R) $9,000, MIN @ DET
Shane Bieber did not need to log a win on Opening Day to flirt with 50 FanDuel points. He could do the same today against Kansas City but the hope with rostering him is his offense supports his Cy Young-worthy pitching. Bieber is the pitcher most likely to top the position in strikeouts and has an 18.0 K/9 after one start.
Trevor Bauer does not want to be the first pitcher to allow the Oakland Athletics to notch a win in 2021. Oakland has scored more than three runs once to start their season and had to get to Houston’s bullpen to do so. Bauer is a horse (not literally) and could cruise to a quality start. He projects to have a slightly better Projected Plus/Minus than Bieber among the elite pitching options.
Aaron Nola pops as the top pitcher priced higher on the Bales Model. His median projection is the third best on FanDuel and DraftKings, but he is priced below that on both sites, and is expected to pitch deep. Nola was masterful against Atlanta on Opening Day. The Phillies’ ace leads pitchers with eight Pro Trends and the team is favored to win by 0.7 runs.
Blake Snell and Kenta Maeda have pesky matchups where both opposing offenses are not powerhouses, but they do enough to cause trouble and to hang around. Maeda and the Twins are favored by 1.2 runs according to our Vegas Model, so he would be my target if choosing between him and Snell.
Values
Jack Flaherty was flat in his first start but is a favorite of the Bales Model. His is the top play on FanDuel and second behind Hyun-jin Ryu on DraftKings. The Cardinals are small favorites against Miami and the game has a low projected game total (seven runs). It is also good to see Flaherty stand out on FanDuel with a 75% Bargain Rating.
Dallas Keuchel is priced as a top 15 pitcher on FanDuel but is a top five play. The White Sox offense is clicking ahead of their home opener and face a tired Mariners bullpen due to ineffective pitching and an injury to James Paxton early in their game last night.
Tampa Bay has a -3.7 Offensive WAR and 88 team Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) to start 2021. The offense is also not hitting the ball for power and rank 20th in slugging percentage. Nate Eovaldi can get hot and strike out batters by the bunches. He is also tied at the top of Bargain Rating.
Fastballs
The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field at Wrigley this afternoon. It is projected to be around 13 mph as well and the temperature should be a comfortable 70 degrees. Factor in a little more trouble for Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff and Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks.
Jack Flaherty could command a lot of ownership, making his opponent, Pablo Lopez, a pivot candidate. Lopez is one of the better pitchers in baseball that does not get the hype and is coming into his own in his age 25 season. He dazzled against Tampa Bay in his first start and saves you $1,000 on DraftKings. Outside of Opening Day’s throttling of the Cincinnati Reds, the Cardinals offense has not been too inspiring.
I mentioned Ryu as a Bales Model favorite, but his matchup is not a cake walk. The Texas Rangers have scored seven or more runs in three of five games to start 2021, including seven last night against Toronto. It is also difficult to expect Rangers starter Kyle Gibson to only last one-third of an inning again.
Notable Stack
There are a few offenses that project well on the main slate, but it’s Canada’s team that tops the list on FanDuel.
- Vlad Guerrero Jr. (R)
- Marcus Semien (R)
- Cavan Biggio (L)
- Bo Bichette (R)
Total Salary: $20,200
The Blue Jays have the highest projected team total at five runs and are -186 moneyline favorites. Semien, Biggio, and Bichette are top 10 hitters on both sites.
Other Hitters
Byron Buxton has home runs in three of four games this season and should see increased ownership against lefty Matthew Boyd and the Tigers. His salary has not changed on DraftKings despite his role and production; Buxton has a Bargain Rating of 86% on DraftKings.
The top hitters according to Projected Plus/Minus are Mitch Garver (FanDuel) and Andrew McCutchen (DraftKings).
It is A.J. Pollock day! The Dodgers outfielder enjoys left-handed pitching. He is a career .286 hitter against southpaws and finished 2020 with a .345 average and 201 wRC+ against them. Pollock averages a home run every 19.9 at-bats against lefties compared to one every 33.3 at-bats against right handers.
Yermin Mercedes is one of the better stories to start 2021 and is priced to play on FanDuel at $2,800. He has a five-game hitting streak and should continue to hit in the meat of the White Sox batting order. His price on DraftKings has jumped $2,100, a testament to his hot start.
