Baseball did us a solid to start the season. There is at least one day game each day through April 27.
Today’s main slate features seven games and starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Only one pitcher is priced high today on FanDuel, and he is the elite option.
Jacob deGrom (R) $11,000, NYM @ PHI
Do you like high strikeout totals? How about high projected ownership? If that is not enough, how about a pitcher whose opponent is projected to score 3.1 runs, 1.4 for less than his team? Fine, the cherry on top is the Mets are -204 favorites against the Phillies.
The Mets are playing their first game of the season and there is an unquantifiable factor of sitting the extra four days before playing a game. How do the Mets play behind deGrom and how does he adjust to four days of extra rest? He is the top pitcher on tonight’s slate for a reason but does not carry the leverage one would expect as DFS players decide to pay down at the position.
Enjoy “Opening Day” deGrom.
Values
Carlos Rodon is tasked with getting the White Sox back on track after losing three of four to the Angels to start the season. The southpaw has struggled with injuries and command issues and was non-tendered by Chicago before clawing his way into the starting rotation ahead of this season. The good thing with Rodon is the injuries, including Tommy John surgery, have not zapped his velocity. He uses his fastball and slider more than 81% of the time and needs them to top the Seattle Mariners. If both pitches are on, he could rack up strikeouts as the Mariners have started the season by striking out 26% of the time. He is rated as the second best pitcher according to the Bales Model and is the top value among starting options.
Dustin May has a bright future on a loaded Dodgers team, but his upside is capped by his inability to pitch deeper into games. This is also something a lot of teams are monitoring in 2021 after 2020’s shortened season. May logged six innings in three of 12 starts last season. Like so many other starters on the slate, May is priced to account for volatility but is backed by the best projected offense in baseball.
Adrian Morejon is tied with deGrom on FanDuel with seven ProTrends, tops on the slate. Home runs are an issue in limited major league work, but Morejon is pitching in San Diego against the vanilla San Francisco Giants offense.
Fastballs
Frankie Montas will make his delayed season debut after recovering from a ripped cuticle. Pitchers recovering from even minor injuries to their throwing hand is always a concern and since it is early in the season, I expect Montas to be on a pitch count. He is a fade against the Dodgers in what would normally be a pitcher’s dream with a cool night expected in Oakland.
I am avoiding Brett Anderson and Trevor Williams as the wind blows out at Wrigley Field. The Cubs failed to capitalize on a similar situation on a warm Sunday, but baseball is funny and so they could crush the soft-tossing Anderson. The Brewers took it on the chin against the Twins to open the season. Trevor Williams will be facing a trio of Brewers who have slugging percentages over .500 against him — Keston Hiura, Orlando Arcia, and Kolten Wong.
The “best weather” for pitchers is expected to be in Boston. Wind is expected to be blowing in from left field toward the first base line. The projected starters are Michael Wacha for Tampa and Nick Pivetta for Boston.
Notable Stack
The season is five days old, and I am celebrating seeing a team other than the Dodgers top the Stack Tool.
- Jake Cronenworth (L)
- Manny Machado (R)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
- Tommy Pham (R)
- Total Salary: $18,500
All four in this quad are projected to have double-digit ownership against Anthony DeSclafani and the Giants. Pham is the most intriguing of the four as he has had some bad luck to start the season. He is hitting .231 but has a Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 120 and a hard hit percentage of 63.6. He has been locked in at the plate despite little success.
Other Hitters
The top hitting option according to the Bales Model is Yoshi Tsutsugo. Hard pass. He has as many hits in 2021 as you and me and has reached base twice on walks. I mentioned the weather situation in Boston, another reason to fade the former Japanese star.
Jared Walsh has been lights-out for the Angels. There are two issues to factor with him – he has as many home runs as strikeouts in nine at-bats, and he is a reverse splits hitter. That means as a left-handed batter, he hits better against left-handed pitching. He faces a right-hander tonight if he is in the lineup. Walsh is a top-10 play on FanDuel and top 15 on DraftKings.
Austin Meadows is an outfielder who I want in lineups despite the weather in Boston. I targeted him in season-long as a bounceback candidate and he has rewarded me early with two home runs. He is arguably Tampa’s best hitter and his price tag on FanDuel is only up $100. It is up $800 on DraftKings.
The top players based on Projected Plus/Minus are Darin Ruf (FanDuel) and Cronenworth (DraftKings). The top targets based on Leverage are Bryce Harper (best on both sites), Andrew McCutchen (DraftKings), and Yordan Alvarez (DraftKings). The best values using Bargain Rating are Christian Vazquez (FanDuel), Justin Turner (FanDuel), and Evan White (DraftKings).
Photo Credit: Mark Brown/Getty Images
Pictured: Jacob deGrom
