Today we are looking at Saturday’s all-day slate, which features 14 games and starts at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
These are the high-priced pitchers on FanDuel:
- Zach Plesac (R) $10,200, CLE @ DET
- Lance Lynn (R) $9,800, CHI @ LAA
- Zack Wheeler (R) $9,400, PHI vs ATL
- Corbin Burnes (R) $9,200, MIL vs MIN
- Tanner Houck (R) $9,000, BOS vs BAL
Congrats to Zach Plesac on being the top priced pitcher on a slate after a strong 2020 season. He finished the season with only four wins but logged six quality starts in eight outings. Only Lance Lynn was more consistent than Plesac among pitchers on today’s slate. The weather in Detroit will be cool with the wind blowing in from right field, so it’s an improvement from Thursday’s snowy affair and advantageous for Plesac.
Lynn was the White Sox biggest addition in the offseason and is tasked with slowing down the Los Angeles Angels offense. Through two games, the Angels have scored 12 runs against Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, and the “vaunted” White Sox bullpen. For what it is worth, Lynn won two of his three starts against Los Angeles with Texas last season, logging a 2.84 ERA and 17/5 K/BB ratio in 19 innings pitched. He is also paired with his first manager as a starter, Tony LaRussa, so if you like driving down #NarrativeStreet, he is in play.
Zack Wheeler will look to improve on an impressive first campaign with Philadelphia in which he scored at least 25 FanDuel points in nine of 11 starts. That is great especially for how good the N.L. East was last season. If the Phillies expect to make the playoffs, Wheeler will have to be the 2020 version of himself and then some. He gets the Braves after a day off for both teams.
Corbin Burnes is the top pitcher according to the Bales Model. Despite a limited pitch selection, Burnes is a strikeout force, finishing with a 13.27 K/9 in 2020. Burnes is second on the slate with seven Pro Trends, tied with Tanner Houck for most. Houck is also the only starter with a higher Consistency Percentage than Burnes. I dig Burnes against the Twins in a big way.
I never expected to see Houck as a top five pricing option this early in the season, but here we are. Houck finished 2020 with 21 strikeouts in 17 innings pitched while allowing one earned one — impressive but small sample. Houck managed to do all of this while walking nine batters, meaning regression could put a damper on his spot start. The Bales Model is running and hiding from Houck today, and I am too.
As great as some of the top pitchers are, there is value across the slate that I would rather roster over all but maybe two of the options above.
Value
Elieser Hernandez looks to be the next in what has been an amazing start to the season by Miami Marlins starting pitchers. The Rays-Marlins contest is tied for the lowest projected run total (7.5). The Rays have also pitched well to start 2021 which makes Hernandez a candidate for a No Decision, but at $6,800 and with a higher Projected Plus/Minus than every high-priced pitcher, I am interested.
Walker Buehler is severely underpriced at $8,000. That is tied for 12th among pitchers on the slate, but Buehler has the third highest projected FanDuel score. Buehler has a 96% Bargain Rating as well. Outside of a potential innings limit (that’s so Dodgers), Buehler is near the top of my pitcher pool.
The Cincinnati Reds pitched like it was still 2020 against St. Louis on Opening Day. Tyler Mahle has a chance to make fantasy players forget about rostering Luis Castillo and has a good chance to get a win with Adam Wainwright as the opposing starter. Mahle struck almost four more batters per nine innings than Wainwright and could get a boost from today’s home plate umpire Tony Randazzo. He is one of the best umpires for pitchers, according to the Bales Model.
Logan Webb is a wild card cheap option against Seattle. He projects well and is facing a mediocre offense. His low strikeout projection limits his upside, but at least the Giants are favored.
Fastballs
Joe Musgrove must be happy that his is no longer a Pittsburgh Pirate. He will make his Padres debut against Arizona on Saturday. San Diego is projected to score 1.5 more runs than Arizona and Musgrove leads the slate with eight Pro Trends. All that is to say he is the second best option, according to the Bales Model.
Rich Hill is in a dead spot of pricing and should perform well against Miami. I also believe he tops his 4.73 strikeout projection. Hill allowed the fifth-fewest home runs per nine among qualified starters on the slate.
One pitcher is making his MLB debut, and another is making his return to the majors. Kohei Arihara signed with Texas after a strong career in Japan, while Seattle’s Chris Flexen returns to the big show after a season in Korea.
Notable Stack
The Dodgers continue to dominate the Stack Tool at FantasyLabs, but you already knew that. Below is a pivot stack from the early games that projects well:
- Rafael Devers (L)
- Xander Bogaerts (R)
- J.D. Martinez (R)
- Alex Verdugo (L)
Total Salary: $13,800
This option saves you $4,400 in salary on FanDuel while projected to score 10 fewer points. The Red Sox face Matt Harvey and the Baltimore Orioles. Harvey finished 2020 with an 11.57 ERA and allowed six earned runs over 10 innings this spring.
Other Hitters
Cleveland leadoff hitters continue to pop in the Bales Model. Jordan Luplow failed to produce on Opening Day, so now it is Ben Gamel’s turn. He is tops among hitters with a 5.1 Points Per Salary projection and is only $2,100.
Willson Contreras is the top bargain today against lefty Tyler Anderson and the Pirates. Contreras is a career .275 hitter and has a career 127 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against southpaws. He is hitting leadoff today for the Cubs.
Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Wil Myers all have Bargain Ratings over 90% against Arizona.
Two players sit atop Pro Trends with five – Myers and Jose Abreu.
Targeting Rockies in DFS has been beneficial and should be on your shortlist today. The Dodgers bullpen has been 75% overworked, according to the Bales Model.
Tommy Pham was one of my top recommendations on Opening Day and he was roughly five feet away from a two-homer game. He should continue to hit somewhere among the top three batters in San Diego’s order. Trust the process!
