Less than two weeks into the season and we have our first no-hitter. Congrats to San Diego’s Joe Musgrove for throwing the first no-no in team history for the city where he grew up, and congrats to anyone who rostered him in DFS.
Tonight’s main slate features six games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
A limited slate means limited high-priced pitching options. Here is who you are paying up for on FanDuel:
- Julio Urias (L) $10,000, LAD vs WSH
- Zach Eflin (R) $9,600, PHI @ ATL
- Steven Matz (L) $9,200, TOR vs LAA
Julio Urias is facing a Nationals team that has had success against lefties early in in 2021. Washington is hitting .328 and has seven walks in 68 plate appearances against southpaws and averages one run every six at-bats. An overwhelming majority of Urias’ balls allowed in play have been medium contact, and that is what the Nationals have done to lefties so far. Urias has the second worst Projected Plus/Minus among all projected starters and is only projected for 4.45 strikeouts using the FantasyLabs K Predictor. His best quality is pitching for one of the best offenses in baseball.
Zach Eflin dominated the Atlanta Braves as part of a Phillies series sweep to start their season and gets a chance to get another win against them. Atlanta started out the year cold but have won three straight and have scored five or more runs in three of their last four games. I think Eflin can have another quality start (and get bonus points) as he continues to see an elevated Strikeout Per 9 Innings, but Atlanta is sending Ian Anderson to the bump, making this a pitcher’s duel that could end in a no-decision.
The Blue Jays bats have disappeared, and their pitching staff is showing why Toronto needed to do more in the offseason. Steven Matz was a bright spot in his Blue Jays debut, but the Los Angeles Angels have been excellent against lefties; L.A. is averaging one run every four at-bats despite having only one home run. They are getting on base and stringing hits along that lead to runs. Matz has not been a consistent, quality pitcher since 2016 and one start five years later does not inspire hope.
Values
I would take Ian Anderson over all three of the pitchers above. He has the best projected fantasy score on both sites according to the Bales Model despite being priced outside the top two. Atlanta is the moneyline favorites against Philadelphia and the game total is the lowest on the slate. Anderson has an 83% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Chris Paddack is the best bang for your buck on FanDuel at $6,900 and the top pitching option according to the Bales Model. We are aware of what the Padres did to the Texas Rangers last night. Paddack is not throwing a no-hitter, but he could get right after a mediocre outing to open his season. Anderson is the only starter with a higher projection than Paddack, and the Padres have the second-highest projected team total on the slate. Paddack also has the most Pro Trends on FanDuel among starters with four. There is risk of Paddack not making it through five innings. He throws a lot of pitches to be effective and has a history of giving up the long ball.
Fastballs
I like the positive regression that has come for the Cincinnati Reds after a historically bad 2020 season. Their bats have come alive, and Jeff Hoffman was the beneficiary of that in a 12-1 Reds win in his first start. The Arizona Diamondbacks are hitting .197 and have a Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 73 against right-handed pitching. Another way to look at that is Arizona is 23% below average against righties this season. Hoffman is a top five play on both sites.
Notable Stack
One of the hottest offenses to start 2021 tops our Stack tool on FanDuel:
- David Fletcher (R)
- Anthony Rendon (R)
- Mike Trout (R)
- Shohei Ohtani (L)
Total Salary: $13,800
This stack gives me the best player in baseball, the hottest hitter, and arguably the best third baseman while allowing me to pay more for a starting pitcher and #ProfessionalHitter Juan Soto. Angels-Blue Jays has a 10.5-run projected game total. My username is jeffrotull44 if you want to follow the lineup I will use with this stack, and I will try to post it on Twitter @_jeff_hicks_.
Other Hitters
The top hitter in our models on FanDuel and DraftKings is Trent Grisham. He returned from a hamstring injury and collected two hits and a run for the Padres last night. He is a bargain at $2,500 on FanDuel and is a lock atop the Padres lineup that will produce even without Fernando Tatis Jr.
Manny Machado has not had the start to 2021 that fantasy players would like to see. He is $3,400 on FanDuel, a $500 price drop from Opening Day.
I would pair Marcus Semien with the Angels stack to make sure both sides of the game are represented. He is one of three Blue Jays with a positive Offensive WAR, has two stolen bases, and has even been unlucky (.208 BABIP) despite three games with at least 19 fantasy points (depending on which site you use).
Cedric Mullens has double-digit fantasy points in two of four starts for Baltimore. One of them came against Boston’s starting pitcher today, Garrett Richards.
Cavan Biggio has four hits in eight games and has yet to log multiple in a single game. The two homers is nice, but he has been a negative in DFS so far.
Jonathan India allowed the Reds to move Eugenio Suarez to shortstop, and he has rewarded the team handsomely. Last night was his first hitless game of the short season and he has RBI’s in five of seven contests. It would be nice to see India log a few walks as he continues to adjust to major league pitching.
