The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Pablo Lopez ($9,800) Minnesota Twins (-154) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems have Lopez at over 40% ownership on this small slate. Which makes sense, as he leads the slate in nearly every major pitching category.
Last season, he had a slate-leading 3.00 xERA and 29% strikeout rate — which was actually slightly unlucky, given his 15% swinging strike rate. His ERA was a bit worse than his xERA as well (at 3.58), so he’s due for a better 2024. He got off to a hot start this year, allowing just one run while striking out seven over seven innings pitched.
Now he gets a solid matchup with the Guardians, who Vegas has implied for just 3.5 runs. That’s the lowest on the slate, and the Twins -154 moneyline is one of the best marks as well.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Josiah Gray ($6,400) Washington Nationals (+110) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
There are a few pitchers in the $6,000 range that project reasonably well (relative to their salaries) on Thursday’s slate. Gray leads them all in Pts/Sal projection, though, in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems.
He’s a bit of a scary play, though. In 2023, he finished the season with a 3.91 ERA across 30 starts but with considerably worse leading indicators. His xERA, xFIP, and SIERA all ended up above 5.00. With that said, Gray is still young and improving, so better days are ahead.
He’s likely to be a boom-or-bust option throughout much of this season. In his first start of 2023 he struck out six Reds hitters in four innings — but also allowed seven runs. He gets a moderately better on-paper matchup and a much more pitcher-friendly ballpark this time around, though.
On a larger slate, I wouldn’t give Gray a second look (especially in cash games), but we have limited options on Thursday. He’s a reasonable salary saver in all contest types, but it could be a bit of a roller coaster.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Tanner Bibee ($9,200) Cleveland Guardians (+128) at Minnesota Twins
We have Bibee — the underdog in the Twins-Guardians matchup projected ahead of Lopez for the best median and ceiling projection on the slate.
Bibee is coming off an excellent rookie season in which he finished with a sub-3.00 ERA and a 24% strikeout rate. Like Gray, he got a bit lucky, but his underlying metrics were still solid (xERA and FIP in the mid-threes). Given his youth and inexperience, it’s also reasonable to assume he’ll be even better this season.
Particularly in the strikeout department. He leads the slate in K prediction today. Thanks to his underdog status, he’s coming in at fairly low ownership for a four-game slate, which further boosts his value in GPPs. I’m considering multi-entering lineups based around Bibee using our new MLB SimLabs tool to quickly build multiple rosters.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
While Josiah Gray is showing up as a potential value, so are the Pirates. The decision here depends on where you fall on the Josiah Gray regression discussion. One reading is that he’s a young arm who should improve enough to account for his good fortunes in 2023. The other side is that he got lucky and will fall back to earth this season.
This is certainly possible, given both his ERA indicators last season and his poor performance in his first start of 2024. The Pirates are also a surprisingly productive offense to start the season, with at least six runs scored in five of their six games played so far.
Of course, potential weather issues add another wrinkle to the discussion. A late start and/or delay at some point is probably beneficial to the bats, as it would either disrupt the starter’s warm-up or force Washington to turn to their bullpen early, depending on the timing.
I’ll have some Gray today (particularly in cash games), but I tend to lean towards the Pittsburgh side of the discussion. They’re tied for the slate lead in implied total and a reasonably affordable stack.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Willson Contreras C ($4,000) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins (Ryan Weathers
The Cardinals are tied with the Pirates for the highest implied total on the slate, with only their status as the home team keeping them from being the slate’s best team to stack. They’re taking on left Ryan Weathers of the Marlins, who had a 6.55 ERA last season and picked up right where he left off in 2024, allowing three runs in four innings in his season debut.
Cardinals stacks are firmly in play here, but I turned to PlateIQ in search of one-off plays:
Contreras is the obvious option, with by far the best splits against lefties on the team. He’ll be a priority at a very weak catcher position in my lineups.
Josh Naylor 1B ($4,500) Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins (Pablo Lopez)
Given the high ownership on Lopez, tournament lineups that fade him should probably include some Guardians hitters. The Guardians projected lineup is packed with left handed and switch hitters today, and Lopez allowed a wOBA more than 60 points higher against lefties last season.
Naylor is one of those, and he has my favorite combination of value and upside on the team. He hit 17 home runs and stole ten bases in 121 games last season, all while hitting .308. While Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,800) is the best overall option, the savings on Naylor make him my favorite price-considered play.
