The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Sunday features an 11-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jack Flaherty ($8,900) Detroit Tigers (-190) vs. Oakland A’s
The Tigers signed Flaherty to a one-year “prove it” deal this offseason, hoping he could regain some of his dominant form. From 2018-2021, Flaherty performed at an ace level, but a 2022 injury limited his workload that season and was clearly still impacting his ability last year.
Early returns are promising, with Flaherty allowing just one run while striking out seven in six innings last start. While I’d bet he finishes the season with worse numbers than a 30% strikeout rate and 1.50 ERA, that’s still a good sign. Especially considering Sunday’s matchup.
He and the Tigers are hosting the Oakland A’s, who come into the day ranked 25th in wRC as a team while striking out at the third-highest rate in the league. Even if Flaherty isn’t as good as he was earlier in his career, he just might look like it against the A’s.
Flaherty leads THE BAT projections in median and ceiling and is a very close second in the FantasyLabs models.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Cristopher Sanchez ($7,600) Philadelphia Phillies (-160) at Washington Nationals
Sanchez is the cheapest pitcher on the slate who’s opponent has a Vegas total of under four runs Sunday. The next-cheapest pitcher who fits that criteria is Flaherty for an extra $1,300, so we’re getting a pretty significant discount considering the very similar betting data.
Sanchez recorded a ridiculous 40% strikeout rate in his 2023 debut, but his career number in the low 20s suggests that was an outlier. Even so, given his price tag and betting-market data, he can pay off his salary without putting up huge strikeout numbers, which is what I’m anticipating against the Nationals.
Washington is a poor offense overall, but with a roughly average strikeout rate. That makes Sanchez a safe option for cash games, and a reasonable GPP consideration if your lineup brings upside elsewhere.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Chris Sale ($9,500) Atlanta Braves (-212) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
One pitcher not lacking upside is the Braves’ Chris Sale. He had a bounce-back year in 2023, finishing with a 29.4% strikeout rate. While his ERA was elevated at 4.30, all of his leading indicators were below four, suggesting mostly bad luck.
This season is off to a similar start, with seven punchouts through 5.1 innings in his first start of the season, in which he also allowed two runs against the Phillies. He has another somewhat difficult matchup Sunday against the D’Backs, who profiled before the season as a strong lineup and have lived up to that billing so far.
That makes Sale too risky for cash games, as Arizona could chase him out in a hurry. However, that will also limit his ownership considerably, making him a solid GPP option. It’s tough, but not impossible, to fit both Sale and Flaherty in GPP lineups.
Sale leads the FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling over Flaherty by a narrow margin.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
From a game-theory perspective, I love the idea of Tigers stacks Sunday. There’s a few reasons for that.
First is their excellent five-run implied total. While not the highest on the slate, it trails the Braves by only 0.2 runs. A stack consisting of the top-five hitters from Atlanta would cost almost $10,000 more on DraftKings, severely limiting your options at pitching.
Like the Braves stack, a Tigers stack also allows for some pitcher-hitter correlation in your lineups. A big day by the Tigers bats boosts the chances of a four-point win bonus for Flaherty. They also leave enough salary on the table to easily fit the day’s top two pitchers — Flaherty and Sale.
Finally, you can even maneuver an Atlanta bat or two into lineups with a full Detroit stack, giving exposure to both of the top implied offenses on the day while also correlating with your pitchers. It’s a great way to build Sunday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Marcell Ozuna OF ($4,600) Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona D’Backs (Ryne Nelson)
Balancing the salaries and projections of Braves hitters is tricky Sunday, as their top-four hitters all come in at $5,500 or more on DraftKings. However, using PlateIQ, I was able to find one player who seems to be a decent value relative to his numbers:
That’s Ozuna, who has comparable (if not better) numbers than some of his more expensive brethren higher up the order. While his value is diminished a bit based on his spot in the lineup, he’s a good mix of value and upside Sunday.
Francisco Alvarez C ($3,500) New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
Alvarez is currently projecting to hit cleanup for the Mets, who have a solid 4.3-run implied total as they travel to Cincinnati. Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly places to play in the majors with a Park Factor of 83, so I’ll be trying to get some exposure to this game in general.
Which makes Alvarez, at his thin position and moderate price tag, an excellent option. There’s only a handful of catchers hitting in the top half of their respective lineups Sunday, and Alvarez is the cheapest.
He also has solid pop, hitting 25 home runs as a rookie in 2023. That’s an especially interesting detail considering where he’s playing Sunday.
JP Crawford SS ($4,000) Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers (Colin Rea)
Crawford checks a lot of boxes Sunday. He’s underpriced for his leadoff role in an offense implied for 4.5 runs on the road, thanks to his cold start to 2024.
He also has excellent platoon splits. The left-handed Crawford has a career OPS of .747 against righties, putting him on the better side of his splits by nearly .100 in terms of OPS. Rea is considerably worse against lefties, allowing a .351 wOBA and .251 ISO since the start of 2023, compared to just .285 and .151 respectively against righties.
