Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Max Scherzer, WSH
A large number of aces being available today means the minor differences inevitably matter, which is where Scherzer’s 11.23 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) come in handy. That’s admittedly not as high as, say, Drew Pomeranz’s 11.71 average, but Scherzer has still averaged 2.9 more DraftKings points than any pitcher in this slate over the last month. He’s also been gifted a White Sox offense projected with .273 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB). His 59 percent fly-ball rate allowed in his last two starts is worrisome, but that matters less when factoring in his 87-MPH exit velocity allowed in that span, too.
Drew Pomeranz, SD
It takes playing in an All Day or Early slate to roster Pomeranz, but that’s seemingly worth it given his aforementioned SO/9. His 11 DraftKings Pro Trends are also two more than Madison Bumgarner’s, Kenta Maeda’s, or Scherzer’s. Of course, that has a lot to do with Atlanta’s league-low Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Isolated Power (ISO) against left-handed pitching. It also explains why the Braves are currently tied for the lowest implied total of the day.
Noah Syndergaard, NYM
Pay no mind to Syndergaard’s 20 percent Dud rate this month, seeing as the sole reason for that was his ejection. Even if taking that performance (in which he failed to meet salary-based expectations by 12.39 points) into account, he’s produced a +6.68 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last five starts. He also has the second-highest Park Factor Rating among pitchers tonight. The Pirates offense is projected with a relatively low .226 SO/AB, but Syndergaard has still confidently received the highest percentage of moneyline bets among pitchers.
Yu Darvish, TEX
Darvish likely isn’t seen as one of the premiere aces tonight, which is all the more reason to chase his Upside in tournaments. Not only has his pitch limit officially been lifted for this evening, but the Astros’ .279 SO/AB rate is bottom-four. Since returning from injury, he’s also limited opponents to a bottom-seven contact rate, matching Syndergaard’s average of 70.7 percent in that time. If not wanting to pay $11,000 at DraftKings for Darvish when you could simply pay $600 or $700 more for either Bumgarner or Pomeranz, note that the former is still priced under $10,000 at FanDuel.
Pitchers to Exploit
Jered Weaver, LAA
For the second consecutive night, the Yankees are slated with the highest DraftKings Team Value Rating. Reminder: They forced David Huff’s departure in only 3.2 innings when being crowned with that achievement last night. It doesn’t help that Weaver has also allowed 1.56 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) over the last year, which trails only Alfredo Simon (1.78) and Chase Anderson (1.76) for the most allowed among pitchers tonight.
Alfredo Simon, CIN
Speaking of Simon, only Carlos Carrasco and Jesse Hahn have managed to produce fewer DraftKings points in the last month. Still, Simon’s 48 percent Dud rate there this season remains 11 percent lower than any other pitcher. Even in his best efforts at Coors Field last time out, he walked three and permitted four runs prior to finishing with an +8.87 DK Plus/Minus. But, if factoring that in, note that he’s still failed to meet salary-based expectations by -5.28 points over his last nine starts.
C
Jonathan Lucroy, MIL
More notable than Lucroy’s .373 wOBA (although that’s not too shabby, either) is that Jesse Hahn has averaged a -6.64 DK Plus/Minus in his last six starts. Lucroy has also averaged 10 DraftKings points in the past month, a top-five mark among catchers. His salary at DraftKings has skyrocketed $1,400 overnight due in part to his +4.59 Plus/Minus recently, but he can still be rostered for cheap at FanDuel where he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
1B
Matt Adams, STL
Only Ryan Zimmerman has produced an exit velocity higher than Adams’ in the last 15 days. Adams, however, has averaged a batted-ball distance three feet farther in that span, simultaneously recording a hard-hit rate 11 percentage points higher than his yearly average. His 9.3 DraftKings points in the last month are tied with Mike Napoli for 10th-best at first base.
Adam Lind, SEA
Lind has admittedly averaged a batted-ball distance 15 feet shorter than his yearly average recently, but his .096 ISO Differential tonight is top-10 among first basemen. Carlos Carrasco also allowed a 95-MPH exit velocity in his first start following injury, which is the highest allowed by any pitcher in this slate. His 57 percent hard-hit rate allowed in that start was additionally nine percent higher than anyone else at his position.
2B
Jurickson Profar, TEX
There’s an outside chance Profar rests today since Jeff Banister mentioned starting Mitch Moreland, but it’s more likely Prince Fielder returns to the bench. And if that is the case, note Profar’s whopping .313 ISO Differential against right-handed pitching. His .719 slugging percentage is also the third-highest among tonight’s player pool, behind only Jarrett Parker’s (.895) and Robbie Grossman’s (.739).
Derek Dietrich, MIA
Dietrich’s .419 slugging percentage isn’t as prominent as most others at his position, but his batted-ball distance in the past 15 days ranks top-five; that’s likely due in part to the fact he’s hit the ball 20 feet farther than his yearly average in that span. His .100 wOBA Differential is also top-five among second and third basemen (where he qualifies at on DraftKings).
3B
Alex Rodriguez, NYY
Despite a -.081 ISO Differential tonight, Rodriguez has averaged a hard-hit rate seven percentage points higher recently. He’s also averaged .065 home runs per at-bat (HR/AB) this season, second only to Nolan Arenado (.074). He, much like everyone in this matchup, should also benefit from 14 MPH winds blowing out towards center field.
SS
Aledmys Diaz, STL
Although he’s averaged a poor 187-foot batted-ball distance lately, Diaz is still slugging .586 versus right-handed pitching. His .089 ISO Differential is also top-seven among shortstops tonight. Alfredo Simon’s 1.75 WHIP is fortuitously (for the Cardinals, anyway) the highest among pitchers, which is notable since Diaz’s .403 wOBA trails only Manny Machado’s at his position.
OF
Kike Hernandez, LAD
Now that he’s back to being deployed strictly against lefties, Hernandez, who has a .693 slugging percent against said handedness, is in as good a spot as any. His .263 ISO Differential is also top-two among outfielders. It’s one thing to have positive splits, but note that Hernandez has also averaged a 236-foot batted-ball distance in his last nine starts, as well.
Nomar Mazara, TEX
Mazara’s 10 DraftKings Pro Trends in this slate are second-best to Chris Young’s for the highest at their respective position. But Mazara, who has a .168 ISO Differential tonight, is in a much better spot given Doug Fister’s 1.27 HR/9 in the past year. Despite a poor 88-MPH exit velocity of late, Mazara has also exceeded salary-based expectations by +2.03 points in his last 10 games.
Carlos Beltran, NYY
Since Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Beltran are all closely priced, the latter’s 10 DK Pro Trends are considered a tiebreaker if choosing only one. Beltran has also produced a hard-hit rate 15 percent higher than either in as many days. If you want all three, a Yankees stack remains viable since Jered Weaver has a bottom-two rating in our Bales Model tonight.
Robbie Grossman, MIN
Opponents have averaged a batted-ball distance 15 feet farther recently against Chen than his yearly average. Despite that, Grossman, who has a .348 ISO versus southpaws, is still priced below $3,000. DraftKings’ refusal to raise his salary has also helped him achieve a 62 percent Consistency in the past month.
Weather Watch
Thunderstorms and rain could delay the start of Cubs-Phillies, but it’s only the beginning that remains questionable. The skies should clear immediately after.
Good luck!
