Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Kyle Hendricks, CHC
Hendricks’ seven Pro Trends aren’t the highest in this slate, but Philadelphia is still implied to score 0.5 fewer runs than any other offense. That’s probably due to Hendricks’ 173-foot batted-ball distance and 85-MPH exit velocity allowed recently (both slate-lows, by the way). Some will say that Greinke has a better matchup (we’ll get there), but Hendricks’ 8.43 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) are only 0.01 shy of mirroring the former’s average of 8.44. At the least, Hendricks is considered more of a safe option seeing as Vegas has taken in 79 percent of moneyline bets on him.
Zack Greinke, ARI
Of course, the argument for Greinke is that his ceiling tonight is much higher than Hendricks’. And that might be true since the Rays are projected with .264 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB). Greinke has also averaged 2.1 more DraftKings points than Hendricks over their last five games. But Greinke has notably recorded a 40 percent Dud rate in that span, making him more of a boom-or-bust option (or, tournament play). Still, his seven percent line-drive rate allowed lately is a terrific peripheral to have.
Julio Urias, LAD
As Jack Twist ever-so-appropriately said: “I wish I knew how to quit you.” And that rings true for Urias, who has obviously failed to meet salary-based expectations in both of his first two starts. But all signs today point up.
First, his salary has risen $1,900 despite recording only 3.85 DraftKings points last time out. Colorado’s implied total has also sunk 0.2 runs already. And if that weren’t fishy enough, his seven Pro Trends are coincidentally as many as Hendricks and Greinke. It’s probably worth throwing a dart Urias’ way given the Rockies’ 24 percent strikeout rate against lefties, as well as the fact that their Team Value Rating tonight is 14 points lower than the next closest team.
Pitchers to Exploit
Mat Latos, CWS
Latos has failed to meet salary-based expectations by -10.0 DraftKings points over his last five starts. The batted-ball distance he’s allowed recently is also the farthest among pitchers tonight. His salary at DraftKings has sunk $1,100 in the past month, but don’t consider that an opportunity to roster him for cheap. Rather, note his 66 percent Dud rate in that span.
Aaron Blair, ATL
I’ll evaluate further, but let’s first take a look at how Blair has performed recently:
A -9.58 Plus/Minus over his last seven games is bad, but it’s similarly terrible to his -1.7 DraftKings points per game in the past month. He’s also received only four percent of moneyline bets Tuesday, by far the lowest of any pitcher tonight. The Padres are known for being one of the worst offenses against righties, but even their projected .265 SO/AB shouldn’t feel the effects of Blair’s lowly 4.86 SO/9.
Matt Boyd, DET
Although Boyd has limited opponents to a batted-ball distance 21 feet shorter than his yearly average lately, four of Toronto’s first five hitters are slugging at least .460 against left-handed pitching (the lone exception being Jose Bautista). That’s obviously bad news for Boyd, whose 2.40 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) rate trails only Julio Urias’ tonight. Boyd’s 92-MPH exit velocity allowed in the last 15 days is additionally tied with Pat Dean’s for bottom-three in this slate.
C
Evan Gattis, HOU
Gattis has exceeded salary-based expectations by +8.96 DraftKings points over his last five starts. His hard-hit rate in that span is also 12 percentage points higher than his yearly average. His .019 ISO Differential might not stand out among the pack, but at least Cole Hamels has allowed opponents to hit the ball 26 feet farther than average recently.
Salvador Perez, KC
Perez has improved across the board since returning from injury, most notably averaging a hard-hit rate 21 percentage points higher than his yearly average. He’s also hit the ball 21 feet farther in that span. Also note that Ubaldo Jimenez has averaged -0.5 DraftKings points in the last month, exceeding expectations in only one of his last nine starts.
1B
Eric Hosmer, KC
Hosmer has averaged a 199-foot batted-ball distance recently, but his 9.3 DraftKings PPG over the last month is still a top-10 mark at first base. If concerned about said distance or the fact that he’s the most expensive skill-position player at DraftKings, he still warrants being rostered at FanDuel where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Chris Davis, BAL
Davis’ .199 ISO Differential is the highest among first basemen tonight. Further, he has a .351 ISO, which is behind only David Ortiz’s (.381) at first base. What Ortiz can’t claim, however, is that he’ll also be facing Yordano Ventura, who’s met expectations in only 20 percent of his last five performances. That’s likely the reason why Baltimore’s implied total has already jumped 0.5 runs, showing reverse line movement early Tuesday morning.
2B
Robinson Cano, SEA
Cano’s salary has plummeted $1,300 due in part to his -5.17 Plus/Minus in his last three games. Though the results haven’t been there, he’s still averaged a batted-ball distance 13 feet farther than his yearly average. His 92-MPH exit velocity is also tied for top-four at his position. Take the discount while you can, especially since he’s still slugging .604 against right-handed pitching.
3B
Hernan Perez, MIL
Perez has probably produced the quietest 61 percent Consistency of any player in the league over the past month. His 9.0 DraftKings PPG in that span isn’t in the top-10 at third base, but is still more than enough given his lowly $2,800 salary. Just note his +2.99 Plus/Minus in his last 10 starts. His .126 ISO Differential is also top-five at his position.
Josh Donaldson, TOR
If willing to pay up at third base, Donaldson’s .406 wOBA versus left-handed pitching is tied with Manny Machado’s for top-three at their position. More importantly, Donaldson’s .287 ISO against said handedness is the highest among third basemen in this slate.
SS
Manny Machado, BAL
Whether you roster him at third base or shortstop, Machado’s 13 DraftKings Pro Trends are far and away the highest at his position. At shortstop, his 253-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days is also the highest; however, among third basemen, Tommy La Stella and Evan Longoria have hit the ball farther. Having the highest hard-hit percentage at his position warrants paying $5,200 at DraftKings for Machado, but his 95 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel is acceptable (read: fire emoji) as well.
Jonathan Villar, MIL
Corey Seager has exceeded salary-based expectations by 7.56 points in his last 10 games. (Recording multiple home runs in not one, but two separate outings will do that.) However, even his 11.4 DraftKings points over the last month aren’t as high as Villar’s, who’s recorded the most among shortstops in that span. Villar has also recorded a 46 percent hard-hit rate over that time frame, which trails only Manny Machado’s at their respective position.
OF
Michael Saunders, TOR
Saunders has a .596 slugging percentage against lefties, which is top-10 among outfielders tonight. He’s also averaged a batted-ball distance 15 feet farther than his yearly average in as many days. If looking for further proof that he’s an immense value tonight, simply note that he’s produced a .316 ISO against said handedness, which trails only Giancarlo Stanton’s (.412), Franklin Gutierrez’s (.348), Robbie Grossman’s (.348), and Adam Duvall’s (.348) tonight.
Adam Duvall, CIN
As I just mentioned, Duvall’s ISO tonight is tied for top-two at his position. And the appropriate steps have been taken by DraftKings to ensure he’s one of only nine outfielders priced at or above $5,000. At FanDuel, however, his 98 percent Bargain Rating hasn’t caught up to his recent play. Teammate Jay Bruce (who could’ve just as easily been suggested in this spot) has averaged a batted-ball distance six feet farther than Duvall’s lately, but the latter’s .604 slugging percentage is still .053 higher.
Marcell Ozuna, MIA
Giancarlo Stanton has recorded a .706 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching, but it’s Ozuna whose recent batted-ball distance is 39 feet farther. He’s also produced 7.0 more DraftKings points than Stanton over the last month. Stanton is admittedly the steal of the two since his salary at FanDuel has dipped below $3,000, but even so, Ozone’s .122 wOBA Differential is given slightly more consideration in the slate.
Stephen Piscotty, STL
Piscotty has averaged a hard-hit rate 13 percentage points lower than his yearly average recently, but he’s still exceeded expectations by +1.03 points in his last 10 games. Further, he has a .594 slugging percentage against southpaws, which is top-10 at his position. It’s only a plus that the Cardinals are currently implied to score 0.3 more runs than any other offense.
Weather Watch
Good luck!
