Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Jon Lester, CHC
Lester’s 11 Pro Trends are four more than anyone else at his position. He has also received the highest percentage of moneyline bets tonight. Being implied to allow the fewest runs would ordinarily be enough information for anyone to roster him, but the Phillies have also struck out in 24.1 percent of their-bats against left-handers this season. Their .105 Isolated Power (ISO) against said handedness really isn’t a concern, but note Lester’s slate-low 0.61 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) allowed anyhow.
Mike Bolsinger, LAD
Bolsinger carries about as much Upside as a $4,900 pitcher could possibly offer. Sure, the Rockies’ projected .328 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is worrisome, but Bolsinger’s +7.43 Plus/Minus in the last two weeks is proof of his potential. Per our advanced stats, his 16-percent line-drive rate allowed in that span is also tied for the third-lowest tonight.
Plus/Minus, Upside, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Pitchers to Exploit
Mike Wright, BAL
It’s bad enough (for Wright, anyways) that the Royals’ projected .191 SO/AB are the lowest tonight. It’s even worse that he has allowed 1.36 more HR/9 than any other pitcher in this slate. Also, his opponents have recently averaged a hard-hit rate 18 percentage points higher than their yearly averages. [Editor’s Note: In Texas, we would say that he’s due for “a good ol’-fashion shellackin’.”]
Adam Morgan, PHI
No pitcher in tonight’s slate has recorded fewer DraftKings points than Morgan over the last month. Just note his horrid -10.41 Plus/Minus in his last four starts alone. He has also allowed 1.60 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in the past year, which doesn’t bode well for him, as the Cubs have produced a .347 wOBA versus left-handed pitching this season.
James Paxton, SEA
Paxton produced seven strikeouts in only 3.2 innings pitched Wednesday night, but that was against the Padres, who notably have the third-worst strikeout rate vs. LHP. Not only are the Indians projected with a .237 SO/AB tonight, but their .320 wOBA against said handedness is top-four. Three of Cleveland’s first four hitters are also slugging at least .425 versus southpaws.
C
David Ross, CHC
Over his last four starts, Ross has a 280-foot batted-ball distance, which is 29 feet farther than that of any other catcher. His exit velocity of 98 miles per hour in that span is also the highest. With a reasonable salary under $3,000 at both DraftKings and FanDuel, Ross is certainly worth rostering, given his 66-percent hard-hit rate.
Salvador Perez, KC
Coincidentally, only Ross has averaged an exit velocity higher than Perez’s in the last 15 days. Perez, however, remains a much stronger cash option, given his 55-percent Consistency in the past month. Perez’s .131 wOBA Differential is also top-three at his position.
1B
Steve Pearce, TB
With Robbie Ray’s allowing the highest recent exit velocity among pitchers tonight, keep in mind Pearce’s .256 ISO versus lefties. His .513 slugging percentage is also top-seven among first basemen. Despite averaging a -0.91 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, Pearce (with 8.6 DraftKings points in the last month) has still been a top-10 player at first and second base, where he has dual eligibility.
Mike Napoli, CLE
Napoli has quietly produced the fourth-most DraftKings points among starting first basemen (in this slate) over the past month. He’s also slugging .580 versus southpaws, trailing only Dae-Ho Lee (.667) and Tommy Joseph (.643) tonight. Neither batter, however, has the benefit of facing Paxton, who has allowed 2.36 HR/9 in the last year.
2B
Jurickson Profar, TEX
In his nine starts since being called up, Profar has exceeded salary-based expectations in 77 percent of said performances. His average of 11 DraftKings points within the last month trails only Ian Kinsler’s among starting second basemen. He’s also the only player at his position with double-digit Pro Trends.
3B
Evan Longoria, TB
He is sure to have an unusually high ownership because of his recent play — but his recent play has been immaculate:
Additionally, Longoria’s 256-foot recent batted-ball distance trails only Jung-ho Kang’s at third base, and of the the two Longoria is the better value, since his .581 slugging percentage is also accompanied by a 95-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. At the same time, you shouldn’t be deterred from rostering him at DraftKings.
Jake Lamb, ARI
Lamb has averaged more DraftKings points than the likes of Manny Machado, Kang, and even Longoria in the past month. He also has a .092 wOBA Differential, which is ranked top-five tonight. Although he has a batted-ball distance of only 206 feet in the last 15 days, Lamb still has a top-six hard-hit percentage at his position in that span.
SS
Wilmer Flores, NYM
Flores is eligible as only a shortstop at FanDuel, but that’s where he holds the most value anyway. Just note his 97-percent Bargain Rating there, where he costs only $500 above minimum. That, despite the fact that he’s slugging .553 versus left-handed pitching. His .170 ISO Differential is also the highest at his position.
OF
Mikie Mahtook, TB
His .638 slugging percentage against lefties is much better than the results (or lack thereof) that he has produced lately. His .423 wOBA is also third-highest among outfielders, behind only Carlos Gonzalez’s and Mike Trout’s. And if that weren’t enough, his 12 Pro Trends lead his position. Per our free Trends tool, leadoff hitters historically have a +0.60 Plus/Minus, and Mahtook has a good chance of continuing to bat at the top of the order while Brandon Guyer is out.
Jose Bautista, TOR
Despite having a .549 slugging percentage vs. RHP, Bautista has a 96-percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. He has averaged a sad 176-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days, but his .112 ISO Differential is still top-seven tonight. His 43-percent Consistency on the year remains respectable, as well.
Carlos Beltran, NYY
Beltran’s recent exit velocity is subpar, but he has still averaged a 41-percent hard-hit rate in that span. His .535 slugging percentage is also top-10 among outfielders. Consider him a value at DraftKings, where he has an 84-percent Bargain Rating tonight.
Weather Watch
Mets-Pirates shouldn’t experience thunderstorms until a few hours into play, if at all. That means that Steven Matz and Jon Niese are as viable as anyone else tonight.
Good luck!
