Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Noah Syndergaard, NYM
Per our advanced statistics, Syndergaard has allowed a 159-foot batted-ball distance in the past 15 days. But that includes his recent short-lived stint in New York’s bullpen. Take out that lone inning, and his 164-foot batted-ball distance in that span is ranked top-three tonight. Only Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver, and Tom Koehler in the slate have a higher Park Factor, but Syndergaard outpaces the group with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings.
And despite being ejected recently — ultimately failing to meet expectations by 12.39 points — he has still produced a good Plus/Minus over his last 10 performances:
Plus/Minus, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Drew Pomeranz, SD
Take a glance at Pomeranz’s peripherals and you might think that he also had been given a bullpen session or two recently. But, no, his 151-foot recent batted-ball distance allowed is just that d*mn good. He has also allowed a slate-low exit velocity of 83 miles per hour over that timeframe. The Rockies’ .191 Isolated Power (ISO) against left-handed pitching is worrisome, but they’re also striking out in 23.3 percent of their at-bats against said handedness. Considering that Pomeranz is averaging 11.74 strikeouts per nine innings this season, there’s a greater chance that he matches his nine-percent Upside than that he records his first Dud in well over a month.
Pitchers to Exploit
Brandon Finnegan, CIN
Finnegan’s 1.49 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) would typically be enough to warrant exposure against him, but his 36 Park Factor is also the second worst tonight (ahead of only Gio Gonzalez’s). But it doesn’t stop there: Finnegan has received only 17 percent of moneyline bets in Vegas. Given the Nationals’ league-high ISO versus left-handed pitching, it should come as no surprise that they’re implied to score a whopping 4.8 runs.
Ricky Nolasco, MIN
Pay no attention to Nolasco’s 18-percent Upside, which he achieved when he was still priced as a high-end reliever. Now implied to score 15.01 points, Nolasco has 9.1 DraftKings points in the last month, placing him in the bottom three at his position over that time. The Rays also have a projected .320 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), which doesn’t bode well for Nolasco’s 1.48 HR/9 allowed over the last year.
Chris Rusin, COL
Rusin has averaged only 3.0 DraftKings points over the last month, far and away the lowest total among pitchers tonight. Half of his performances in that span have also qualified as Duds — that, despite never being priced over $4,600. The Padres’ projected .276 strikeouts per at-bat are above average, but they’re quietly (or, not so quietly, depending on whether you watched their destruction of Wade Miley just last night) slugging .418 against lefties. Rusin’s 1.64 WHIP is also 0.16 higher than that of any other pitcher in the slate.
C
Stephen Vogt, OAK
Doug Fister has allowed 1.33 HR/9 in the last year. That bodes well for Vogt, whose wOBA and ISO Differentials are both ranked top-10 among catchers. He also has a respectable 224-foot batted-ball distance over his last eight starts. The A’s are receiving 88 percent of moneyline bets despite being implied to score 1.2 runs fewer than Houston. The money in Vegas is expecting Oakland to produce, and as the No. 3 hitter Vogt is positioned to capitalize.
James McCann, DET
McCann has struggled mightily recently, producing a -0.92 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. Over the last month, he has been a bottom-eight DraftKings catcher, with only 3.6 points. Still, results can’t be too far away, given his .484 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. He has also averaged a 94-MPH recent exit velocity (second-highest of his position).
1B
David Ortiz, BOS
Ortiz is now slugging .692 versus right-handed pitching and has recorded the most DraftKings points among first basemen over the last month. What’s more astonishing is that he has met or exceeded salary-based expectations with 65-percent Consistency over that span. As for tonight, note that he’s the only player at his position with double-digit Pro Trends.
2B
Chase Utley, LAD
Jose Altuve has a higher recent exit velocity than Utley (97 to 94 MPH), but the latter also has a 43-percent fly-ball rate. Per our Trends tool, such a combination of exit velocity and fly-ball rate has historically given hitters a +1.09 Plus/Minus. Utley has a .135 wOBA Differential versus right-handed pitching, which trails only Rob Refsnyder’s mark (.260) for the highest at second base.
Sean Rodriguez, PIT
With Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, and Jordy Mercer all questionable for tonight, I’m figuring that Rodriguez will find himself in Pittsburgh’s lineup one way or another. Note that he has a top-five recent batted-ball distance among second basemen. You can also opt to roster him as an outfielder, given that he has dual eligibility on DraftKings and is listed exclusively there on FanDuel (where he’s much cheaper). Additionally, as an outfielder he would be tied with other notable hitters (such as Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and J.D. Martinez) with his 94-MPH exit velocity.
3B
Alex Rodriguez, NYY
Rodriguez has experienced a -$800 Salary Change at DraftKings overnight, simply because he has negative differentials versus right-handed pitching. What’s likely not accounted for in his salary, though, is that he has hit the ball 21 percentage points harder over the last 15 days. Despite having a .398 slugging percentage against said handedness, A-Rod is tied with Josh Donaldson for second at the position with .064 home runs per at-bat.
SS
Danny Espinosa, WSH
Espinosa has negative differentials across the board against left-handed pitching. Even so, it might not be enough to halt his 45-percent recent hard-hit rate. Also, over the past 15 days he is hitting the ball 42 feet farther and is averaging a +6.24 Plus/Minus in the last seven games.
OF
Colby Rasmus, HOU
Over his last nine starts, Rasmus’ batted-ball distance has trailed his yearly average by 34 feet, but oddly 14 percentage points more of his hits have qualified as hard hits in that span. In fact, his 50-percent hard-hit rate over that time is top-six among outfielders. It doesn’t hurt that Jesse Hahn is the lowest-Rated pitcher in our Bales Model, as well.
Jayson Werth, WSH
Werth’s .663 slugging percentage is the highest among outfielders tonight. His .218 ISO Differential vs. LHP is conveniently third-highest, behind only Michael Conforto and Corey Dickerson’s marks. Despite having a -1.83 Plus/Minus in the last 10 games, Werth has historically produced a +0.91 Plus/Minus against lefties.
Michael Conforto, NYM
Conforto’s .282 ISO Differential is the highest tonight, and only Hyun-Soo Kim has produced a higher wOBA Differential among starting outfielders. Of the two players, Conforto though probably has the better matchup, since Tom Koehler has mustered only a 37-percent Consistency this year, with Adam Wainwright (18 percent) and Francisco Liriano (35 percent) being the only pitchers in the slate who have been more consistently bad.
Jose Bautista, TOR
Bautista’s salary went from $5,000 to $4,100 after only three poor performances. His -0.116 ISO Differential isn’t great, but he has still exceeded salary-based expectations in 57 percent of his performances this month. I’m also admittedly giving a nod to the BvP crowd, given Bautista’s .345 career average and six home runs versus David Price.
Weather Watch
Mariners-Rangers could be interrupted by thunderstorms in the area, but the weather is more likely to delay first pitch rather than interupt play. Yankees-Orioles, on the other hand, is likely to be postponed altogether. Monitor the situation up until lineup lock.
Good luck!
