Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Max Scherzer, WSH
In the last month alone, Scherzer has averaged 4.3 more DraftKings points than any available pitcher tonight. His 11.09 strikeouts per nine innings this season are also 0.31 more than anyone else’s in this slate. Pivoting to Felix Hernandez against the Padres is tantalizing for obvious reasons, but note that Philadelphia’s projected .248 strikeouts per at-bat are only a few tenths short of San Diego’s, and the Phillies actually have a lower projected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). Scherzer’s 98-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel gives him an edge.
Matt Shoemaker, LAA
Per our advanced stats, Shoemaker has notably limited opponents to a batted-ball distance 24 feet shorter in his last two starts. Both of those performances admittedly came against offenses (Baltimore and Houston) that are among the six worst in terms of strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, but the Tigers are similar company. Just note their projected .292 SO/AB this evening. It also bodes well that only Scherzer (26.9), Pat Dean (22.6), and Cole Hamels (22.2) have produced more DraftKings points than Shoemaker (22) has in the last month.
Tyler Chatwood, COL
Chatwood has produced many phenomenal peripherals recently, maybe none as impressive as his 170-foot batted-ball distance allowed. Also, note that he has limited opponents to an 18-percent fly-ball rate in that span. Chatwood has hemorrhaged a -2.88 Plus/Minus at home this season, but in today’s slate he trails only Jacob deGrom, Jon Lester, and Scherzer with his eight Pro Trends. Cincinnati’s implied total also sunk 0.2 runs only one hour after opening.
Plus/Minus, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Pitchers to Exploit
John Lamb, CIN
Only Adam Morgan and Sean Manaea have averaged fewer DraftKings points than Lamb has over the last month. It’s bad enough that he has allowed 1.63 home runs per nine innings in the past year, but the Rockies have also taken advantage of lefties at home. For instance, their +0.01 Plus/Minus versus left-handed pitching on the road rises to +1.39 at Coors Field. Unfortunately for Lamb, Colorado’s projected .319 wOBA is also top-four tonight.
Miguel Gonzalez, CWS
Gonzalez’s 1.69 HR/9 tonight are the most allowed in this slate. What’s worse is that the Mets have recorded a .192 Isolated Power (ISO) against right-handed pitching, second only to the Cardinals (.203) this season. Gonzalez has an outside chance of exploiting New York’s rather high strikeout rate against said handedness, but his 7.04 SO/9 suggest otherwise. Note that his 42-percent Dud rate this season remains the highest among qualified starters.
Adam Morgan, PHI
Opponents have hit the ball 10 percentage points harder against Morgan in the last 15 days. That alone suggests that we should be cautious, but Washington has also produced a .206 ISO versus left-handed pitching this season. And as if that weren’t bad enough, Morgan’s 222-foot batted-ball distance allowed over the last year is the highest in this slate. There’s a reason Morgan has averaged only 3.9 DraftKings points in May.
C
Blake Swihart, BOS
$2,700 is all too cheap for someone averaging a top-two exit velocity at his position. Swihart has also hit the ball 21 percentage points harder in the last 15 days. He has started in only eight games over the last month, but his 50-percent Consistency in those outings equals Buster Posey’s in that span.
Carlos Perez, LAA
Perez is really in the perfect spot, since his 63-percent fly-ball rate costs only $2,400 at DraftKings. Also, note his .079 and .097 wOBA and ISO Differentials tonight, which should produce results against Michael Fulmer’s 1.35 HR/9.
1B
David Ortiz, BOS
Ortiz’s 11 Pro Trends are far and away the most among hitters in tonight’s player pool. Mike Wright has also allowed 1.54 HR/9 in the last year, which is seemingly the worst peripheral to have when facing Ortiz and his .688 slugging percentage. He’s tied with Ryan Zimmerman for the most expensive player at DraftKings tonight, but Ortiz’s 63-percent Consistency this month arguably makes him worth the expenditure.
Ryan Zimmerman, WSH
As previously mentioned, Zimmerman is tied with Ortiz for the highest salary among hitters tonight. Even so, his whopping .671 slugging percentage against southpaws makes him a terrific pivot. Not only is he likely to have a lower ownership than Ortiz, but Zimmerman’s .175 ISO Differential is .064 higher than the latter’s.
2B
Jurickson Profar, TEX
Profar is strictly eligible as a second basemen at FanDuel, but that’s where he has an 86-percent Bargain Rating anyway. Furthermore, his .600 ISO since being called-up trails only Rob Refsnyder’s at the position. Profar’s .200 ISO Differential is also the highest among starting second basemen and shortstops (in the event you prefer to roster him there at DraftKings).
Jose Altuve, HOU
Altuve’s .582 slugging percentage against lefties trails only Profar’s among starting second basemen. Steve Pearce has averaged a batted-ball distance four feet farther than Altuve’s in the last 15 days, but their exit velocities in that span have been the same, and Altuve has actually produced 0.3 more DraftKings points than Pearce in the last month.
3B
Matt Carpenter, STL
Carpenter’s 97-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel is too good to be true, but don’t let that deter you from rostering him at DraftKings. His 247-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days is still second only to Jung-ho Kang’s mark at third base. Although Carpenter has produced an exit velocity slightly slower than Kang’s in that span, note that the former’s line-drive rate remains 16 percentage points higher.
Danny Valencia, OAK
Valencia’s 198-foot batted-ball distance of late is admittedly poor, but his .550 slugging percentage trails only Manny Machado’s among starting third basemen. Valencia has also matched Carpenter’s average DraftKings points over the past month. Given Valencia’s .264 ISO versus left-handed pitching, his 94-percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings makes him an undervalued commodity.
SS
Trevor Story, COL
Despite having a -1.18 Plus/Minus in his last 10 games, Story still has the highest ISO (.319) among starting shortstops. His batted-ball distance in that span is also six feet farther than anyone else’s at his position. Story’s hard-hit rate has dropped by 12 percentage points in the last 15 days, but his .070 HR/AB still make him an immaculate option in the right spot (which tonight appears to be).
OF
Marcell Ozuna, MIA
Ozuna has quietly averaged 11 DraftKings points this month, which is tied for fifth highest among outfielders. His 66-percent Consistency in that span is top-six. His 238-foot batted-ball distance is tied with Adam Duvall’s for top-10 at their position. Tonight, Ozuna trails only Giancarlo Stanton (questionable) and Jayson Werth with his .663 slugging percentage against southpaws.
Ryan Raburn, COL
It’s worrisome that Raburn’s hard-hit rate has dropped by 52 percentage points in his last eight starts, but he’s still slugging .569 versus left-handed pitching. His .414 wOBA against said handedness is also top-seven among outfielders. Despite a -0.67 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, take solace in the fact that Raburn has historically exceeded salary-based expectations by +0.15 points against left-handers.
Hyun-Soo Kim, BAL
Kim’s .410 wOBA Differential is .092 greater than anyone else’s in tonight’s player pool. He is also tied with Adam Duvall and Giancarlo Stanton for the most Pro Trends (nine) at their position. Kim’s 95-MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days makes him worthy of exposure. His 90-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel is just gravy.
Weather Watch
Thunderstorms could delay Dodgers-Cubs early on, but it would be for only a short amount of time. Still, it’s worth monitoring if you’re leaning toward Jon Lester tonight. All other games threatened by inclement weather today are being played in domes that could opt to close their roofs.
Good luck!
