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MLB DFS 5/9/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it. (Check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Jose Fernandez, MIA

On a day filled with aces, Fernandez’s 11.64 strikeouts per nine innings still lead the pack. Now facing a Brewers offense striking out at a top-four rate versus right-handed pitching, Fernandez has a good chance to finish atop his position in today’s slate. Per our advanced data, His exit velocity allowed over the last two weeks has been a minuscule 84 miles per hour. There are two higher-priced options available (Stephen Strasburg and Jon Lester), but Fernandez has the best spot of the three. If Miami opts to keep their roof open, he’ll also be the beneficiary of double-digit winds blowing in toward home plate.

Felix Hernandez, SEA

Hernandez was rocked by Oakland in his last outing, but pay no mind: He has historically produced a Plus/Minus of -5.08 when opposing the A’s on the road. Nothing should keep him from absolutely dominating the Rays, who have a slate-high strikeout rate (26.6 percent) against right-handed pitching. Given his aforementioned recent performance, Hernandez makes for an immaculate tournament play, as most DFS players will likely wish to avoid him.

Jon Lester, CHC

The Padres woes against righties have been duly noted, but even their performance versus southpaws hasn’t been anything to brag about. Although they’ve shown more power against said handedness — .013 Isolate Power (ISO) Differential — the Padres’ strikeout percentage trails Atlanta’s by only 0.4 percentage points. Lester has the Upside to surpass any pitcher tonight. That’s something that even Vegas agrees with, as Lester has a slate-high -248 moneyline.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jake Peavy, SF

The Blue Jays have a moneyline of only -125, but it has received 90 percent of bets so far. That’s how little confidence even those in Vegas have in Peavy. And rightfully so. He has met Plus/Minus expectations only once this season:

 

 

 

Peavy has allowed at least seven hits in five of six performances. Toronto should be able to exploit his slate-high 94 MPH exit velocity allowed.

Miguel Gonzalez, CWS

In replacing John Danks in the pitching rotation, Gonzalez was immediately asked to pitch against Toronto. You can guess how that went. Additionally, Gonzalez hadn’t shown any improvements in the minors to begin with. He still allowed 1.59 HR/9 in four minor league starts this year, benefitting immensely from an egregiously lucky 95.2 left-on-base percentage. Now opposing the Rangers in Texas, Gonzalez warrants an opposing stack from top to bottom, with his 1.70 home runs per nine innings over the past 12 months.

Archie Bradley, ARI

Diamondbacks-Rockies will be the hottest commodity in both cash games and tournaments, but Bradley remains more fragile than Tyler Chatwood. Not only has he allowed 1.86 HR/9 in the last year, but his WHIP remains 0.78 higher than anyone else’s tonight. Even his reduced $4,300 salary at DraftKings (or 92 percent Bargain Rating) can’t save him.

C

Russell Martin, TOR

If choosing to stack against Peavy, you should note Martin’s 259-foot batted-ball distance over the last two weeks. Although he has negative differentials vs. RHP, he remains only $300 above minimum at FanDuel. The value alone makes him worth rostering in any format.

1B

Justin Bour, MIA

Hopefully Bour’s recent return from injury facilitates a low lineup percentage among first basemen. After all, his batted-ball distance in his last six performances trails position-leader Brandon Belt’s by a single foot. Bour’s exit velocity in that span remains the highest. With a .177 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) Differential, he should have no trouble finding success against Wily Peralta, who has a bottom-three rating in our Bales Model.

Jose Abreu, CWS

Still priced just under $4,000 at FanDuel, Abreu is a steal due to his .088/.119 wOBA and ISO Differentials. His .523 slugging percentage makes him a top option in cash games due to Colby Lewis’ bottom-three line-drive percentage, hard-hit percentage, and batted-ball distance allowed.

Mitch Moreland, TEX

I would actually lean toward Moreland over Abreu at DraftKings. At FanDuel, where he qualifies as an outfielder, they are both great options. Over the last two weeks, Moreland’s batted-ball distance and exit velocity are higher than Abreu’s. His .527 wOBA is also in the top 10 among first basemen.

2B

Daniel Murphy, WAS

Murphy has hit the ball farther than any other second baseman over the last two weeks, averaging a batted-ball distance of 260 feet. Anibal Sanchez has produced a batted-ball distance differential allowed of -20 feet, but he also has a bottom-three HR/9. Stacking Murphy (likely fifth in Washington’s order) will be a contrarian way to gain exposure to No. 4 hitter Bryce Harper.

Derek Dietrich, MIA

Dietrich hasn’t been taken seriously since his spot at the top of Miami’s lineup, but he has a top-five batted-ball distance at his position. With the second-highest slugging percentage at second base, he can be rostered with confidence (against Wily Peralta, no less) no matter the format.

3B

David Wright, NYM

Nolan Arenado is probably superior in cash games, but Wright’s batted-ball distance in the last two weeks surpasses that of any other third baseman by 13 feet. With positive Differentials vs. LHP, Wright has a .545 slugging percentage trailing only that of Arenado, Manny Machado, and Josh Donaldson.

SS

Trevor Story, COL

I’ve said before that you have to pick Story’s spots, and tonight is once again that spot. Although he has negative Differentials vs. RHP, Story has a slate-high .602 slugging percentage among shortstops. Also note that Archie Bradley has allowed 0.87 more HR/9 to right-handed batters over the last year.

OF

Nomar Mazara, TEX

Mitch Moreland might be the strongest tournament option for Texas, but Mazara is a great play in cash games. Expected to remain the No. 2 hitter for now, Mazara has top-10 wOBA and ISO Differentials among outfielders. He’s the piece I would refuse to fade in targeting Miguel Gonzalez.

Charlie Blackmon, COL

Blackmon has played only four games at home this season, but he has historically produced a Plus/Minus of +2.73 when leading off at Coors Field. He’ll definitely be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, but his batted-ball distance remains 29 feet more than Carlos Gonzalez’s.

Bryce Harper, WAS

Harper’s batted-ball distance is basically average over his last 11 starts, but he has experienced a -$500 Salary Change in that span. Now only $4,800 at DraftKings, he (much like Daniel Murphy) is in a spot to exploit Anibal Sanchez’s 1.78 HR/9. Despite the depressed salary, Harper has the second-highest slugging percentage (.684) among outfielders.

Weather Watch

It’s supposed to rain throughout the day in Chicago, which means Padres-Cubs, if cancelled, will likely be decided earlier. There’s a small window that might allow it to be played, but thunderstorms are expected to begin immediately thereafter. Orioles-Twins should also be monitored, as there appears to be only a three-hour timeframe in which the game can be played. Finally, Pirates-Reds has a slight chance of being delayed. Not that you were going to roster Dan Straily or Jon Niese, but both should be avoided, as potential showers would actually fall mid-game rather than before or after.

Good luck!

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No related posts.

Let’s get to it. (Check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Jose Fernandez, MIA

On a day filled with aces, Fernandez’s 11.64 strikeouts per nine innings still lead the pack. Now facing a Brewers offense striking out at a top-four rate versus right-handed pitching, Fernandez has a good chance to finish atop his position in today’s slate. Per our advanced data, His exit velocity allowed over the last two weeks has been a minuscule 84 miles per hour. There are two higher-priced options available (Stephen Strasburg and Jon Lester), but Fernandez has the best spot of the three. If Miami opts to keep their roof open, he’ll also be the beneficiary of double-digit winds blowing in toward home plate.

Felix Hernandez, SEA

Hernandez was rocked by Oakland in his last outing, but pay no mind: He has historically produced a Plus/Minus of -5.08 when opposing the A’s on the road. Nothing should keep him from absolutely dominating the Rays, who have a slate-high strikeout rate (26.6 percent) against right-handed pitching. Given his aforementioned recent performance, Hernandez makes for an immaculate tournament play, as most DFS players will likely wish to avoid him.

Jon Lester, CHC

The Padres woes against righties have been duly noted, but even their performance versus southpaws hasn’t been anything to brag about. Although they’ve shown more power against said handedness — .013 Isolate Power (ISO) Differential — the Padres’ strikeout percentage trails Atlanta’s by only 0.4 percentage points. Lester has the Upside to surpass any pitcher tonight. That’s something that even Vegas agrees with, as Lester has a slate-high -248 moneyline.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jake Peavy, SF

The Blue Jays have a moneyline of only -125, but it has received 90 percent of bets so far. That’s how little confidence even those in Vegas have in Peavy. And rightfully so. He has met Plus/Minus expectations only once this season:

 

 

 

Peavy has allowed at least seven hits in five of six performances. Toronto should be able to exploit his slate-high 94 MPH exit velocity allowed.

Miguel Gonzalez, CWS

In replacing John Danks in the pitching rotation, Gonzalez was immediately asked to pitch against Toronto. You can guess how that went. Additionally, Gonzalez hadn’t shown any improvements in the minors to begin with. He still allowed 1.59 HR/9 in four minor league starts this year, benefitting immensely from an egregiously lucky 95.2 left-on-base percentage. Now opposing the Rangers in Texas, Gonzalez warrants an opposing stack from top to bottom, with his 1.70 home runs per nine innings over the past 12 months.

Archie Bradley, ARI

Diamondbacks-Rockies will be the hottest commodity in both cash games and tournaments, but Bradley remains more fragile than Tyler Chatwood. Not only has he allowed 1.86 HR/9 in the last year, but his WHIP remains 0.78 higher than anyone else’s tonight. Even his reduced $4,300 salary at DraftKings (or 92 percent Bargain Rating) can’t save him.

C

Russell Martin, TOR

If choosing to stack against Peavy, you should note Martin’s 259-foot batted-ball distance over the last two weeks. Although he has negative differentials vs. RHP, he remains only $300 above minimum at FanDuel. The value alone makes him worth rostering in any format.

1B

Justin Bour, MIA

Hopefully Bour’s recent return from injury facilitates a low lineup percentage among first basemen. After all, his batted-ball distance in his last six performances trails position-leader Brandon Belt’s by a single foot. Bour’s exit velocity in that span remains the highest. With a .177 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) Differential, he should have no trouble finding success against Wily Peralta, who has a bottom-three rating in our Bales Model.

Jose Abreu, CWS

Still priced just under $4,000 at FanDuel, Abreu is a steal due to his .088/.119 wOBA and ISO Differentials. His .523 slugging percentage makes him a top option in cash games due to Colby Lewis’ bottom-three line-drive percentage, hard-hit percentage, and batted-ball distance allowed.

Mitch Moreland, TEX

I would actually lean toward Moreland over Abreu at DraftKings. At FanDuel, where he qualifies as an outfielder, they are both great options. Over the last two weeks, Moreland’s batted-ball distance and exit velocity are higher than Abreu’s. His .527 wOBA is also in the top 10 among first basemen.

2B

Daniel Murphy, WAS

Murphy has hit the ball farther than any other second baseman over the last two weeks, averaging a batted-ball distance of 260 feet. Anibal Sanchez has produced a batted-ball distance differential allowed of -20 feet, but he also has a bottom-three HR/9. Stacking Murphy (likely fifth in Washington’s order) will be a contrarian way to gain exposure to No. 4 hitter Bryce Harper.

Derek Dietrich, MIA

Dietrich hasn’t been taken seriously since his spot at the top of Miami’s lineup, but he has a top-five batted-ball distance at his position. With the second-highest slugging percentage at second base, he can be rostered with confidence (against Wily Peralta, no less) no matter the format.

3B

David Wright, NYM

Nolan Arenado is probably superior in cash games, but Wright’s batted-ball distance in the last two weeks surpasses that of any other third baseman by 13 feet. With positive Differentials vs. LHP, Wright has a .545 slugging percentage trailing only that of Arenado, Manny Machado, and Josh Donaldson.

SS

Trevor Story, COL

I’ve said before that you have to pick Story’s spots, and tonight is once again that spot. Although he has negative Differentials vs. RHP, Story has a slate-high .602 slugging percentage among shortstops. Also note that Archie Bradley has allowed 0.87 more HR/9 to right-handed batters over the last year.

OF

Nomar Mazara, TEX

Mitch Moreland might be the strongest tournament option for Texas, but Mazara is a great play in cash games. Expected to remain the No. 2 hitter for now, Mazara has top-10 wOBA and ISO Differentials among outfielders. He’s the piece I would refuse to fade in targeting Miguel Gonzalez.

Charlie Blackmon, COL

Blackmon has played only four games at home this season, but he has historically produced a Plus/Minus of +2.73 when leading off at Coors Field. He’ll definitely be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, but his batted-ball distance remains 29 feet more than Carlos Gonzalez’s.

Bryce Harper, WAS

Harper’s batted-ball distance is basically average over his last 11 starts, but he has experienced a -$500 Salary Change in that span. Now only $4,800 at DraftKings, he (much like Daniel Murphy) is in a spot to exploit Anibal Sanchez’s 1.78 HR/9. Despite the depressed salary, Harper has the second-highest slugging percentage (.684) among outfielders.

Weather Watch

It’s supposed to rain throughout the day in Chicago, which means Padres-Cubs, if cancelled, will likely be decided earlier. There’s a small window that might allow it to be played, but thunderstorms are expected to begin immediately thereafter. Orioles-Twins should also be monitored, as there appears to be only a three-hour timeframe in which the game can be played. Finally, Pirates-Reds has a slight chance of being delayed. Not that you were going to roster Dan Straily or Jon Niese, but both should be avoided, as potential showers would actually fall mid-game rather than before or after.

Good luck!

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No related posts.