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MLB DFS 5/8/16 Slate Breakdown

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Pitchers

Jake Arrieta, CHC

There isn’t anything to say about Arrieta that you don’t already know. And on a slate with no other pitchers priced beyond $11k, he’ll easily (and should) be owned in nearly all cash lineups. His SO/9 rate might “only” be third-highest, but Tyler Duffey remains the only pitcher that’s even sniffed Arrieta’s batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days (161/182 feet). Roster him with confidence.

Jose Quintana, CWS

Quintana has massive strikeout potential each and every time he takes the mound, but he benefits even more against the Twins tonight: they’re one of only two teams with a projected SO/AB greater than .300. He’s also allowed only .603 HR/9 over the last year. Although he has the second-highest salary among pitchers tonight, Quintana’s peripherals at least initially seem to validate it.

Aaron Nola, PHI

Nola’s exit velocity in his last two starts (86 mph) has actually been a mirror-image of Arrieta’s in that span. Assuming the roof at Marlins Park stays open, he’ll also reap the rewards of strong inward winds. His $1,600 savings at FanDuel (or, 93% Bargain Rating) is simply the cherry on what’s expected to be a cake outing.

Pitchers to Exploit

Matt Harvey, NYM

No, I’m not targeting Harvey solely because of his Plus/Minus this season:


 

After all, a light probably goes off anytime you see a right-handed pitcher scheduled to face the Padres. And rightfully so, I might add — only the Rays and Astros have whiffed more against said handedness. But Harvey’s troubles — though somewhat unlucky, as shown by his .351 BABIP — might even be something a few extra strikeouts can’t solve. His speed differential, for example, has clocked in -1.6 mph slower over the last two weeks, which is a likely cause for his +27 batted-ball distance differential allowed. And besides, who in the world is going to stack the Padres? Take the chance on lesser ownership (in tournaments, anyways).

Michael Foltynewicz, ATL

Who?

But seriously, Folty (for my fingers’ sake, let’s just keep it short) has an extrapolated HR/9 over the last year due solely to his 7.36 average in 3.2 innings. That’s a terrible rate even in such a short period, but it’s clearly not sustainable. His career 3:1 K/BB ratio, however, isn’t going anywhere. The Diamondbacks should easily be able to exploit his 95 mph exit velocity allowed this season.

Ross Stripling, LAD

Despite pitching against subpar offenses over his last three games — Braves, Marlins, Padres — Stripling has failed to produce more than 7.5 DraftKings points in any outing. In fact, opening night against the Giants is still the only time he’s allowed fewer than two runs. Now facing the highest-projected wOBA among any lineup tonight, Stripling’s slate-high hard-hit percentage is sure to feel the wrath of Toronto.

C

Jarrod Saltalamacchia/James McCann, DET

Whomever Detroit decides to start behind the plate is gifted a terrific spot. Not only is Martin Perez implied to allow the most runs today, but his 5.28 SO/9 is bottom three among pitchers. Saltalamacchia is preferable due to his .314 ISO, but McCann’s .512 slugging percentage isn’t anything to scoff at. Both also have positive wOBA and ISO differentials vs. RHP.

1B

Justin Smoak, TOR

Smoak’s batted-ball distance qualifies as the highest among first basemen over his last eight starts. Edwin Encarnacion might be the safer of the two (if there is such a thing in baseball), but FanDuel’s refusal to raise Smoak’s salary (still $2,400) makes him arguably the most valuable player in this slate.

2B

Brandon Phillips, CIN

Home runs are fun, but Phillips’ insane stretch against Milwaukee isn’t the only reason he’s suggested. He also has a whopping 99% Bargain Rating at FanDuel. And I haven’t even mentioned his top-two batted-ball distance at second base just yet. Either way, he remains an amazing value despite (assumedly) carrying high ownership.

3B

Brandon Drury, ARI

The NL Rookie of the Year is still $2,600 at DraftKings, which is all the more reason to continue rostering him. With a top-10 hard-hit percentage at his position, he’s considered a pivotal piece in any Diamondbacks stack even if batting in the bottom third of their lineup.

Nick Castellanos, DET

Castellanos’ batted-ball distance in the last two weeks is actually only six feet shorter than Nolan Arenado’s. Although projected to bat sixth for Detroit, he’s a confident way to gain unique exposure towards a not-so-unique stack. His .613 slugging vs. LHP is also the highest among third basemen.

SS

Brad Miller, TB

Corey Seager may have a higher slugging percentage than Miller (.508/.416), but their batted-ball distances over the last 15 days are actually the same. For $1,500 less at FanDuel, Miller remains an entirely-too-cheap staple in both cash and tournaments.

OF

Michael Conforto, NYM

It’s been awhile since Conforto’s made an appearance here. Even so, he’s welcomed back with open arms against Andrew Cashner, whose batted-ball distance allowed is only one foot shorter than Stripling’s. Even though the entirety of the Mets’ first five hitters (Curtis Granderson, David Wright, Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda) are all considered elite options, Conforto’s the one I refuse to pass on given his .274 ISO differential. Though not mentioned as of late, note his batted-ball distance trails Giancarlo Stanton by only two feet.

Adam Jones, BAL

Jones’ salary ($2,300) has reached an all-time low, now including a 99% Bargain Rating at FanDuel. His batted-ball distance admittedly isn’t above-average, but it’s still certainly worth more than implied. Given Kendall Graveman’s 1.23 HR/9, Jones (projected to bat third) is even cash viable tonight.

Hunter Pence, SF

Jon Gray stifled the Giants just yesterday, but Eddie Butler isn’t considered near the player he is. That leaves Pence in a spectacular spot given his wOBA differential of .089. Pence (and all batters, for that matter) should also benefit from the 9 mph winds blowing out to center field.

Weather Watch

Thunderstorms might delay first pitch of Brewers-Reds, but there’s an immediate window to play the entire game before the next wave hits. Everyone else is in the clear.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

Let’s do this. (Check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Jake Arrieta, CHC

There isn’t anything to say about Arrieta that you don’t already know. And on a slate with no other pitchers priced beyond $11k, he’ll easily (and should) be owned in nearly all cash lineups. His SO/9 rate might “only” be third-highest, but Tyler Duffey remains the only pitcher that’s even sniffed Arrieta’s batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days (161/182 feet). Roster him with confidence.

Jose Quintana, CWS

Quintana has massive strikeout potential each and every time he takes the mound, but he benefits even more against the Twins tonight: they’re one of only two teams with a projected SO/AB greater than .300. He’s also allowed only .603 HR/9 over the last year. Although he has the second-highest salary among pitchers tonight, Quintana’s peripherals at least initially seem to validate it.

Aaron Nola, PHI

Nola’s exit velocity in his last two starts (86 mph) has actually been a mirror-image of Arrieta’s in that span. Assuming the roof at Marlins Park stays open, he’ll also reap the rewards of strong inward winds. His $1,600 savings at FanDuel (or, 93% Bargain Rating) is simply the cherry on what’s expected to be a cake outing.

Pitchers to Exploit

Matt Harvey, NYM

No, I’m not targeting Harvey solely because of his Plus/Minus this season:


 

After all, a light probably goes off anytime you see a right-handed pitcher scheduled to face the Padres. And rightfully so, I might add — only the Rays and Astros have whiffed more against said handedness. But Harvey’s troubles — though somewhat unlucky, as shown by his .351 BABIP — might even be something a few extra strikeouts can’t solve. His speed differential, for example, has clocked in -1.6 mph slower over the last two weeks, which is a likely cause for his +27 batted-ball distance differential allowed. And besides, who in the world is going to stack the Padres? Take the chance on lesser ownership (in tournaments, anyways).

Michael Foltynewicz, ATL

Who?

But seriously, Folty (for my fingers’ sake, let’s just keep it short) has an extrapolated HR/9 over the last year due solely to his 7.36 average in 3.2 innings. That’s a terrible rate even in such a short period, but it’s clearly not sustainable. His career 3:1 K/BB ratio, however, isn’t going anywhere. The Diamondbacks should easily be able to exploit his 95 mph exit velocity allowed this season.

Ross Stripling, LAD

Despite pitching against subpar offenses over his last three games — Braves, Marlins, Padres — Stripling has failed to produce more than 7.5 DraftKings points in any outing. In fact, opening night against the Giants is still the only time he’s allowed fewer than two runs. Now facing the highest-projected wOBA among any lineup tonight, Stripling’s slate-high hard-hit percentage is sure to feel the wrath of Toronto.

C

Jarrod Saltalamacchia/James McCann, DET

Whomever Detroit decides to start behind the plate is gifted a terrific spot. Not only is Martin Perez implied to allow the most runs today, but his 5.28 SO/9 is bottom three among pitchers. Saltalamacchia is preferable due to his .314 ISO, but McCann’s .512 slugging percentage isn’t anything to scoff at. Both also have positive wOBA and ISO differentials vs. RHP.

1B

Justin Smoak, TOR

Smoak’s batted-ball distance qualifies as the highest among first basemen over his last eight starts. Edwin Encarnacion might be the safer of the two (if there is such a thing in baseball), but FanDuel’s refusal to raise Smoak’s salary (still $2,400) makes him arguably the most valuable player in this slate.

2B

Brandon Phillips, CIN

Home runs are fun, but Phillips’ insane stretch against Milwaukee isn’t the only reason he’s suggested. He also has a whopping 99% Bargain Rating at FanDuel. And I haven’t even mentioned his top-two batted-ball distance at second base just yet. Either way, he remains an amazing value despite (assumedly) carrying high ownership.

3B

Brandon Drury, ARI

The NL Rookie of the Year is still $2,600 at DraftKings, which is all the more reason to continue rostering him. With a top-10 hard-hit percentage at his position, he’s considered a pivotal piece in any Diamondbacks stack even if batting in the bottom third of their lineup.

Nick Castellanos, DET

Castellanos’ batted-ball distance in the last two weeks is actually only six feet shorter than Nolan Arenado’s. Although projected to bat sixth for Detroit, he’s a confident way to gain unique exposure towards a not-so-unique stack. His .613 slugging vs. LHP is also the highest among third basemen.

SS

Brad Miller, TB

Corey Seager may have a higher slugging percentage than Miller (.508/.416), but their batted-ball distances over the last 15 days are actually the same. For $1,500 less at FanDuel, Miller remains an entirely-too-cheap staple in both cash and tournaments.

OF

Michael Conforto, NYM

It’s been awhile since Conforto’s made an appearance here. Even so, he’s welcomed back with open arms against Andrew Cashner, whose batted-ball distance allowed is only one foot shorter than Stripling’s. Even though the entirety of the Mets’ first five hitters (Curtis Granderson, David Wright, Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda) are all considered elite options, Conforto’s the one I refuse to pass on given his .274 ISO differential. Though not mentioned as of late, note his batted-ball distance trails Giancarlo Stanton by only two feet.

Adam Jones, BAL

Jones’ salary ($2,300) has reached an all-time low, now including a 99% Bargain Rating at FanDuel. His batted-ball distance admittedly isn’t above-average, but it’s still certainly worth more than implied. Given Kendall Graveman’s 1.23 HR/9, Jones (projected to bat third) is even cash viable tonight.

Hunter Pence, SF

Jon Gray stifled the Giants just yesterday, but Eddie Butler isn’t considered near the player he is. That leaves Pence in a spectacular spot given his wOBA differential of .089. Pence (and all batters, for that matter) should also benefit from the 9 mph winds blowing out to center field.

Weather Watch

Thunderstorms might delay first pitch of Brewers-Reds, but there’s an immediate window to play the entire game before the next wave hits. Everyone else is in the clear.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.