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MLB DFS 5/7/16 Slate Breakdown

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Pitchers

Johnny Cueto, SF

Kershaw will always be a strong play, but in the early slate there’s an argument to be made for Cueto. If paying down in order to save salary ($3,600, mind you), you’re still hoping for a similar performance. Although Kershaw is averaging 3.93 more strikeouts per nine innings than Cueto, Colorado’s projected strikeouts per at-bat are still .025 greater than Toronto’s. Implied to allow only 0.1 runs more than Los Angeles’ ace, Cueto tonight is in a terrific spot for cash games and tournaments alike.

Chris Sale, CWS

The Twins are one of only two offenses posting an Isolated Power (ISO) below .100 versus left-handed pitching. Even on a slate with Kershaw, Sale is arguably the top cash option. Of course, you don’t have to choose between the two if playing both the early and main slates. I lean toward Sale in the all-day slate if only for his projected 2.9 runs allowed, 0.3 runs lower than Kershaw’s projection. Also, in terms of moneyine bets received, Sale actually exceeds Kershaw by seven percentage points.

Pitchers to Exploit

Mike Pelfrey, DET

Here is a list of things that excite me more than stacking against Pelfrey . . .

(Twiddling thumbs . . .)

And . . . scene. (Yes, I have friends. Why do you ask?)

But, seriously, if any Ranger doesn’t reach base via hit, he’s likely to be walked (due to Pelfrey’s 1.67 WHIP). All (repeat: all) Rangers are in play. I’m even making it a point to write a letter requesting that we be allowed to stack the Frisco Roughriders once Pelfrey faces them in the minors next month. [Editor’s Note: Texas Forever.]

David Price, BOS

Price clearly offers tremendous strikeout potential, but I’d rather target than roster him in tournaments. Note his -2.1 miles-per-hour Speed Differential over the last two weeks, which is a likely cause for his increase of 19 percentage points in hard-hit differential. His overall hard-hit percentage in that span is also highest among pitchers tonight. If still on the fence, you should at least look to avoid him in cash.

Brandon Finnegan, CIN

The Brewers are lukewarm when it comes to facing lefties, but Finnegan’s 1.52 home runs per nine innings should be exploitable. The wind at the Great American Ballpark is also blowing out to left field at 13 MPH, which bodes well particularly for their first three hitters — Domingo Santana, Jonathan Villar, and Ryan Braun — all of whom have positive Differentials (and bat right-handed) vs. LHP.

Jered Weaver, LAA

In comparison to other major league pitchers, Weaver is basically the divorced dad on the mound in your intramural softball league later tonight. In other words, his lobs of 82.2 MPH should be easily rocked. Per our Trends tool, you’ll notice that the Rays have a -5.74 Plus/Minus against pitchers who throw below 85 MPH (basically Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, and Weaver). Still, they didn’t have either Brad Miller or Corey Dickerson in any of those previous instances, so take said results with a grain of salt. I’m still all for stacking the house, especially given Weaver’s slate-high batted-ball distance allowed over his last two starts.

C

Brett Nicholas, TEX

Nicholas has quietly been slugging the ball since joining the Rangers, averaging a 259-foot batted-ball distance in six starts. I’d shy away in cash, given his combatting Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and ISO Differentials (-.155/.143), but no one in tournaments will think twice before choosing Salvador Perez for the same price at FanDuel. He will likely be rostered in a low percentage of lineups.

Victor Martinez, DET

A.J. Griffin has actually performed quite well as of late, but Martinez’s batted-ball distance in the last two weeks is highest among catchers with double-digit starts. He has averaged a hard-hit differential of 16 percentage points in that span. Given the horrible landscape for catchers in the main slate, he’s an easy choice for cash games tonight.

1B

Kendrys Morales, KC

Morales might arguably be the unluckiest player in baseball. If you have your doubts, look no further than his 241-foot batted-ball distance, which has produced only 10 hits in his 15 starts. He’s the absolute minimum at FanDuel, so forget the results and consider him a steal.

Freddie Freeman, ATL

With Shelby Miller on the mound, I’m not even opposed to stacking the Braves entirely, but his bottom-three batted-ball distance allowed can result in only so much production for Atlanta. If there’s a single Brave not to pass on, that’s definitely Freeman, who (per our Player Models) has an ISO Differential of .110.

2B

Rougned Odor, TEX

Odor leads the Rangers in homeruns and also leads off for them. Given their implied total of 4.8 runs (highest of the night), Odor is serviceable in any format, especially with his .505 slugging vs. RHP.

Derek Dietrich, MIA

He has recently been replaced as Miami’s leadoff hitter by J.T. Realmuto, but Dietrich still holds value anytime he faces a righty. Note Jeremy Hellickson’s slate-high 1.66 HR/9. Dietrich, who has wOBA and ISO Differentials of .130/.182, should have no trouble exceeding expectations.

3B

Matt Duffy, SF

Although Joe Panik returned to his rightful spot in the two-hole last night, Duffy was moved only one spot back (to third) in the Giants lineup. He costs only $2,700 at FanDuel and should receive additional opportunities in the top third of the batting order. Note that Jon Gray has the highest batted-ball distance allowed in the early slate.

Danny Valencia, OAK

Valencia was listed as the seventh hitter (rather than cleanup) in Oakland’s lineup prior to the postponement. Still, his 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel is almost offensive. Despite the bump down the lineup, Valencia has a slugging percentage vs. RHP that trails only Manny Machado’s in the main slate. Roster him with confidence (and ease).

SS

Jedd Gyorko, STL

Positive differentials are all I need to see in order to roster Gyorko for the minimum at FanDuel. Additionally, he has an edge over other shortstops, as his batted-ball distance (which is already in the top six) will receive a slight boost from the 13 MPH winds in St. Louis.

Brad Miller, TB

As mentioned earlier, Jered Weaver throws like a dad. Miller is hitting the ball solidly right now, averaging the highest hard-hit percentage among shortstops over the last 15 days. Hopefully the majority of DFS players have yet to catch on to his lowly $2,200 salary at FanDuel.

OF

Nomar Mazara, TEX

Mazara has a batted-ball Distance Differential of -10 feet in his last 12 starts, but his .558 slugging is good enough to make him a viable option on Mike Pelfrey Day. Mazara’s wOBA and ISO Differentials additionally both rank in the top four among outfielders in the early slate.

Michael Brantley, CLE

Ian Kennedy’s 1.48 HR/9 is the highest of the early slate. Although any of Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, and Yan Gomes could be rostered with confidence, Brantley at cleanup remains the most intriguing. He also has a 90 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.

Carlos Gomez, HOU

Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton get much more attention, but Gomez trails them in batted-ball distance by no more than four feet. His exit velocity is actually equal to Stanton’s. Forget about his negative wOBA Differential and load up on him (at what will likely be a low lineup percentage).

Weather Watch

Rockies-Giants might start with rain (causing a slight delay), but there’s zero concern in the game not being played (or even being delayed beyond that). Roster everyone else throughout the evening with confidence.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

Let’s do this. (Check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Johnny Cueto, SF

Kershaw will always be a strong play, but in the early slate there’s an argument to be made for Cueto. If paying down in order to save salary ($3,600, mind you), you’re still hoping for a similar performance. Although Kershaw is averaging 3.93 more strikeouts per nine innings than Cueto, Colorado’s projected strikeouts per at-bat are still .025 greater than Toronto’s. Implied to allow only 0.1 runs more than Los Angeles’ ace, Cueto tonight is in a terrific spot for cash games and tournaments alike.

Chris Sale, CWS

The Twins are one of only two offenses posting an Isolated Power (ISO) below .100 versus left-handed pitching. Even on a slate with Kershaw, Sale is arguably the top cash option. Of course, you don’t have to choose between the two if playing both the early and main slates. I lean toward Sale in the all-day slate if only for his projected 2.9 runs allowed, 0.3 runs lower than Kershaw’s projection. Also, in terms of moneyine bets received, Sale actually exceeds Kershaw by seven percentage points.

Pitchers to Exploit

Mike Pelfrey, DET

Here is a list of things that excite me more than stacking against Pelfrey . . .

(Twiddling thumbs . . .)

And . . . scene. (Yes, I have friends. Why do you ask?)

But, seriously, if any Ranger doesn’t reach base via hit, he’s likely to be walked (due to Pelfrey’s 1.67 WHIP). All (repeat: all) Rangers are in play. I’m even making it a point to write a letter requesting that we be allowed to stack the Frisco Roughriders once Pelfrey faces them in the minors next month. [Editor’s Note: Texas Forever.]

David Price, BOS

Price clearly offers tremendous strikeout potential, but I’d rather target than roster him in tournaments. Note his -2.1 miles-per-hour Speed Differential over the last two weeks, which is a likely cause for his increase of 19 percentage points in hard-hit differential. His overall hard-hit percentage in that span is also highest among pitchers tonight. If still on the fence, you should at least look to avoid him in cash.

Brandon Finnegan, CIN

The Brewers are lukewarm when it comes to facing lefties, but Finnegan’s 1.52 home runs per nine innings should be exploitable. The wind at the Great American Ballpark is also blowing out to left field at 13 MPH, which bodes well particularly for their first three hitters — Domingo Santana, Jonathan Villar, and Ryan Braun — all of whom have positive Differentials (and bat right-handed) vs. LHP.

Jered Weaver, LAA

In comparison to other major league pitchers, Weaver is basically the divorced dad on the mound in your intramural softball league later tonight. In other words, his lobs of 82.2 MPH should be easily rocked. Per our Trends tool, you’ll notice that the Rays have a -5.74 Plus/Minus against pitchers who throw below 85 MPH (basically Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, and Weaver). Still, they didn’t have either Brad Miller or Corey Dickerson in any of those previous instances, so take said results with a grain of salt. I’m still all for stacking the house, especially given Weaver’s slate-high batted-ball distance allowed over his last two starts.

C

Brett Nicholas, TEX

Nicholas has quietly been slugging the ball since joining the Rangers, averaging a 259-foot batted-ball distance in six starts. I’d shy away in cash, given his combatting Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and ISO Differentials (-.155/.143), but no one in tournaments will think twice before choosing Salvador Perez for the same price at FanDuel. He will likely be rostered in a low percentage of lineups.

Victor Martinez, DET

A.J. Griffin has actually performed quite well as of late, but Martinez’s batted-ball distance in the last two weeks is highest among catchers with double-digit starts. He has averaged a hard-hit differential of 16 percentage points in that span. Given the horrible landscape for catchers in the main slate, he’s an easy choice for cash games tonight.

1B

Kendrys Morales, KC

Morales might arguably be the unluckiest player in baseball. If you have your doubts, look no further than his 241-foot batted-ball distance, which has produced only 10 hits in his 15 starts. He’s the absolute minimum at FanDuel, so forget the results and consider him a steal.

Freddie Freeman, ATL

With Shelby Miller on the mound, I’m not even opposed to stacking the Braves entirely, but his bottom-three batted-ball distance allowed can result in only so much production for Atlanta. If there’s a single Brave not to pass on, that’s definitely Freeman, who (per our Player Models) has an ISO Differential of .110.

2B

Rougned Odor, TEX

Odor leads the Rangers in homeruns and also leads off for them. Given their implied total of 4.8 runs (highest of the night), Odor is serviceable in any format, especially with his .505 slugging vs. RHP.

Derek Dietrich, MIA

He has recently been replaced as Miami’s leadoff hitter by J.T. Realmuto, but Dietrich still holds value anytime he faces a righty. Note Jeremy Hellickson’s slate-high 1.66 HR/9. Dietrich, who has wOBA and ISO Differentials of .130/.182, should have no trouble exceeding expectations.

3B

Matt Duffy, SF

Although Joe Panik returned to his rightful spot in the two-hole last night, Duffy was moved only one spot back (to third) in the Giants lineup. He costs only $2,700 at FanDuel and should receive additional opportunities in the top third of the batting order. Note that Jon Gray has the highest batted-ball distance allowed in the early slate.

Danny Valencia, OAK

Valencia was listed as the seventh hitter (rather than cleanup) in Oakland’s lineup prior to the postponement. Still, his 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel is almost offensive. Despite the bump down the lineup, Valencia has a slugging percentage vs. RHP that trails only Manny Machado’s in the main slate. Roster him with confidence (and ease).

SS

Jedd Gyorko, STL

Positive differentials are all I need to see in order to roster Gyorko for the minimum at FanDuel. Additionally, he has an edge over other shortstops, as his batted-ball distance (which is already in the top six) will receive a slight boost from the 13 MPH winds in St. Louis.

Brad Miller, TB

As mentioned earlier, Jered Weaver throws like a dad. Miller is hitting the ball solidly right now, averaging the highest hard-hit percentage among shortstops over the last 15 days. Hopefully the majority of DFS players have yet to catch on to his lowly $2,200 salary at FanDuel.

OF

Nomar Mazara, TEX

Mazara has a batted-ball Distance Differential of -10 feet in his last 12 starts, but his .558 slugging is good enough to make him a viable option on Mike Pelfrey Day. Mazara’s wOBA and ISO Differentials additionally both rank in the top four among outfielders in the early slate.

Michael Brantley, CLE

Ian Kennedy’s 1.48 HR/9 is the highest of the early slate. Although any of Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, and Yan Gomes could be rostered with confidence, Brantley at cleanup remains the most intriguing. He also has a 90 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.

Carlos Gomez, HOU

Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton get much more attention, but Gomez trails them in batted-ball distance by no more than four feet. His exit velocity is actually equal to Stanton’s. Forget about his negative wOBA Differential and load up on him (at what will likely be a low lineup percentage).

Weather Watch

Rockies-Giants might start with rain (causing a slight delay), but there’s zero concern in the game not being played (or even being delayed beyond that). Roster everyone else throughout the evening with confidence.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.