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MLB DFS 5/6/16 Slate Breakdown

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Pitchers

Noah Syndergaard, NYM

“Thor” is no Jacob deGrom. He’s not currently struggling with any velocity issues — in fact, his average speed of 97.2 mph over the last two weeks is a mirror-image of his average over the past year — and he’s still seemingly un-hittable (his batted-ball distance differential allowed is somehow -16 feet). But more importantly, he won’t let you down against the Padres. With 11 Pro Trends tonight, his 10.5 SO/9 rate is sure to deliver any retribution if still feeling the effects from rostering deGrom last night. San Diego, after all, still has a terrible .277 wOBA versus right-handed pitching this season.

Vincent Velasquez, PHI

Velasquez’s 10.45 SO/9 would stand out in any other slate, but there are six aces with a higher average tonight. Even so, he’s an immaculate option as his batted-ball distance allowed is ranked bottom three. While Miami has produced a top-10 slugging percentage vs. LHP, their ISO against RHP remains in the bottom third of the league.

Taijuan Walker, SEA

The Astros have flaunted their power vs. RHP this season (as shown by their top-three ISO), but they’re still whiffing at a rate of 26.5 percent. That makes Walker, at the least, a tournament play with massive upside. His exit velocity and batted-ball distance allowed are also both bottom two among pitchers tonight. With a hard-hit differential of -17 percent, he’s considered both a confident and rather valuable option tonight.

Pitchers to Exploit

Michael Pineda, NYY

Facing Boston and their highest ISO vs. RHP in the league, there is no escape for Pineda tonight. Even those in Vegas are running as, despite having a -107 moneyline, the Yankees have received only 19 percent of bets. With a bottom-three batted-ball distance allowed over the last two weeks, his slate-high 1.61 HR/9 rate is certain to catch up to him.

Mat Latos, CWS

Latos has produced a dazzling 1.84 ERA this season, but his 4.98 xFIP suggests the walls come crashing down sooner than not. Between Miguel Sano, Trevor Plouffe, and Byung-Ho Park, that could even happen today. It’s still a terrific tournament spot for Minnesota as they’re quietly implied to score the fourth-most runs tonight (and are likely to have little-to-no exposure).

Cory Rasmus, LAA

No team has struck out more against right-handed pitching than the Rays, but Rasmus’ batted-ball distance allowed also qualifies as the highest tonight. If something has to give (and it does), I’m fine in betting on Brad Miller and Corey Dickerson, whose spectacular splits should see to it that Rasmus isn’t welcomed in his first start of the year. Steven Souza’s 42 percent line-drive percentage is also a viable option if batting high in their order.

C

Stephen Vogt, OAK

Vogt’s exit velocity (87 mph) hasn’t exactly been up to par over the last two weeks, but his salary at FanDuel ($2,700) is also lacking. He can be rostered even in cash with confidence as our models show him with an ISO differential of .107.

Carlos Ruiz, PHI

I love Ruiz for a variety of reasons, mainly because the Phillies are projected to score only 3.3 runs. That not only means his tournament exposure will be limited, but that you’re likely to have his .216 ISO differential all to yourself (well, all to ourselves).

1B

Carlos Santana, CLE

In seven games at leadoff, Santana has produced a slash line of .346/.452/.615, including five extra-base hits, six runs, and five walks. Set to oppose another right-handed pitcher, his 57 percent hard-hit percentage in his last 10 games is certainly viable in tournaments.

David Ortiz, BOS

Batting in the heart of the lineup set to oppose Pineda, Ortiz likely comes with a high ownership. Even so, his wOBA and ISO differentials of .089/.182 might arguably be the strongest cash option among first basemen tonight.

2B

Brandon Phillips, CIN

FanDuel graciously increased Phillips’ salary overnight, bumping him from $2,200 to $2,300. Low batted-ball distance be damned — until the Reds have a terrible matchup, continue rostering him with ease.

Robinson Cano, NYY

I’m assuming many will be on Cano tonight given Seattle’s performance as of late, but his top-three batted-ball distance remains all too cheap at DraftKings. With a bottom-three strikeout rate, WHIP, and HR/9, Doug Fister can only hope to pitch around him.

3B

Danny Valencia, OAK

Scheduled to be activated and start tonight, Valencia was batting cleanup for Oakland before falling to injury. If he’s immediately thrust back into that spot, note his .545 slugging percentage vs. RHP. Oh, and he costs only $2,300 at FanDuel.

Nick Castellanos, DET

Castellanos’ .590 slugging leads all third basemen tonight. Still, his .256 ISO remains a stronger tournament option than cash given Cole Hamels’ recent batted-ball distance allowed (157 feet).

SS

Brad Miller, TB

As noted earlier, Miller and Dickerson are the two most likely to exploit Rasmus given their standout splits. The former is especially in a terrific spot as the wind in Anaheim is currently blowing 5 mph out to right field. That obviously bodes well for his top-five batted-ball distance.

Corey Seager, LAD

Seager has been lost in the Dodgers’ shuffling of lineups lately, but his .508 slugging percentage remains top four among shortstops. With very little reason to fear Marcus Stroman’s 5.97 SO/9, Seager would even become cash viable if back in their two-hole tonight.

OF

Adam Duvall, CIN

This is no bit: until Cincinnati finds themselves in a tougher matchup, Duvall is arguably the strongest option in their lineup. And yet again in a terrific spot, note his .212 ISO differential vs. RHP. His $2,900 salary at FanDuel remains all too cheap (again).

Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY

While Boston is an easy stack in cash, Rick Porcello’s 1.31 HR/9 over the last year is still worth chasing (in tournaments, anyways). Most will look to his performance this season and shy away, which is exactly the reason to roster Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and even Mark Teixeira tonight.

Ryan Raburn, COL

Madison Bumgarner isn’t the best target on any night, but Raburn’s wOBA and ISO differentials of .103/.174 are still fine for tournaments. His .625 slugging percentage is also quietly top two among outfielders in this slate.

Weather Watch

Baltimore is expected to see rain non-stop until tomorrow morning, but the chances of it halting during Athletics-Orioles increase around first pitch. Thunderstorms are also occurring around Rays-Angels this morning rather than during scheduled game-time. And Red Sox-Yankees is expected to see showers only up until first pitch.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

Let’s do this.

(Check out our new Vegas Dashboard here.)

Pitchers

Noah Syndergaard, NYM

“Thor” is no Jacob deGrom. He’s not currently struggling with any velocity issues — in fact, his average speed of 97.2 mph over the last two weeks is a mirror-image of his average over the past year — and he’s still seemingly un-hittable (his batted-ball distance differential allowed is somehow -16 feet). But more importantly, he won’t let you down against the Padres. With 11 Pro Trends tonight, his 10.5 SO/9 rate is sure to deliver any retribution if still feeling the effects from rostering deGrom last night. San Diego, after all, still has a terrible .277 wOBA versus right-handed pitching this season.

Vincent Velasquez, PHI

Velasquez’s 10.45 SO/9 would stand out in any other slate, but there are six aces with a higher average tonight. Even so, he’s an immaculate option as his batted-ball distance allowed is ranked bottom three. While Miami has produced a top-10 slugging percentage vs. LHP, their ISO against RHP remains in the bottom third of the league.

Taijuan Walker, SEA

The Astros have flaunted their power vs. RHP this season (as shown by their top-three ISO), but they’re still whiffing at a rate of 26.5 percent. That makes Walker, at the least, a tournament play with massive upside. His exit velocity and batted-ball distance allowed are also both bottom two among pitchers tonight. With a hard-hit differential of -17 percent, he’s considered both a confident and rather valuable option tonight.

Pitchers to Exploit

Michael Pineda, NYY

Facing Boston and their highest ISO vs. RHP in the league, there is no escape for Pineda tonight. Even those in Vegas are running as, despite having a -107 moneyline, the Yankees have received only 19 percent of bets. With a bottom-three batted-ball distance allowed over the last two weeks, his slate-high 1.61 HR/9 rate is certain to catch up to him.

Mat Latos, CWS

Latos has produced a dazzling 1.84 ERA this season, but his 4.98 xFIP suggests the walls come crashing down sooner than not. Between Miguel Sano, Trevor Plouffe, and Byung-Ho Park, that could even happen today. It’s still a terrific tournament spot for Minnesota as they’re quietly implied to score the fourth-most runs tonight (and are likely to have little-to-no exposure).

Cory Rasmus, LAA

No team has struck out more against right-handed pitching than the Rays, but Rasmus’ batted-ball distance allowed also qualifies as the highest tonight. If something has to give (and it does), I’m fine in betting on Brad Miller and Corey Dickerson, whose spectacular splits should see to it that Rasmus isn’t welcomed in his first start of the year. Steven Souza’s 42 percent line-drive percentage is also a viable option if batting high in their order.

C

Stephen Vogt, OAK

Vogt’s exit velocity (87 mph) hasn’t exactly been up to par over the last two weeks, but his salary at FanDuel ($2,700) is also lacking. He can be rostered even in cash with confidence as our models show him with an ISO differential of .107.

Carlos Ruiz, PHI

I love Ruiz for a variety of reasons, mainly because the Phillies are projected to score only 3.3 runs. That not only means his tournament exposure will be limited, but that you’re likely to have his .216 ISO differential all to yourself (well, all to ourselves).

1B

Carlos Santana, CLE

In seven games at leadoff, Santana has produced a slash line of .346/.452/.615, including five extra-base hits, six runs, and five walks. Set to oppose another right-handed pitcher, his 57 percent hard-hit percentage in his last 10 games is certainly viable in tournaments.

David Ortiz, BOS

Batting in the heart of the lineup set to oppose Pineda, Ortiz likely comes with a high ownership. Even so, his wOBA and ISO differentials of .089/.182 might arguably be the strongest cash option among first basemen tonight.

2B

Brandon Phillips, CIN

FanDuel graciously increased Phillips’ salary overnight, bumping him from $2,200 to $2,300. Low batted-ball distance be damned — until the Reds have a terrible matchup, continue rostering him with ease.

Robinson Cano, NYY

I’m assuming many will be on Cano tonight given Seattle’s performance as of late, but his top-three batted-ball distance remains all too cheap at DraftKings. With a bottom-three strikeout rate, WHIP, and HR/9, Doug Fister can only hope to pitch around him.

3B

Danny Valencia, OAK

Scheduled to be activated and start tonight, Valencia was batting cleanup for Oakland before falling to injury. If he’s immediately thrust back into that spot, note his .545 slugging percentage vs. RHP. Oh, and he costs only $2,300 at FanDuel.

Nick Castellanos, DET

Castellanos’ .590 slugging leads all third basemen tonight. Still, his .256 ISO remains a stronger tournament option than cash given Cole Hamels’ recent batted-ball distance allowed (157 feet).

SS

Brad Miller, TB

As noted earlier, Miller and Dickerson are the two most likely to exploit Rasmus given their standout splits. The former is especially in a terrific spot as the wind in Anaheim is currently blowing 5 mph out to right field. That obviously bodes well for his top-five batted-ball distance.

Corey Seager, LAD

Seager has been lost in the Dodgers’ shuffling of lineups lately, but his .508 slugging percentage remains top four among shortstops. With very little reason to fear Marcus Stroman’s 5.97 SO/9, Seager would even become cash viable if back in their two-hole tonight.

OF

Adam Duvall, CIN

This is no bit: until Cincinnati finds themselves in a tougher matchup, Duvall is arguably the strongest option in their lineup. And yet again in a terrific spot, note his .212 ISO differential vs. RHP. His $2,900 salary at FanDuel remains all too cheap (again).

Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY

While Boston is an easy stack in cash, Rick Porcello’s 1.31 HR/9 over the last year is still worth chasing (in tournaments, anyways). Most will look to his performance this season and shy away, which is exactly the reason to roster Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and even Mark Teixeira tonight.

Ryan Raburn, COL

Madison Bumgarner isn’t the best target on any night, but Raburn’s wOBA and ISO differentials of .103/.174 are still fine for tournaments. His .625 slugging percentage is also quietly top two among outfielders in this slate.

Weather Watch

Baltimore is expected to see rain non-stop until tomorrow morning, but the chances of it halting during Athletics-Orioles increase around first pitch. Thunderstorms are also occurring around Rays-Angels this morning rather than during scheduled game-time. And Red Sox-Yankees is expected to see showers only up until first pitch.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.