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MLB DFS 5/5/16 Slate Breakdown

No day games to begin the week clearly spoiled us, as we’ve now been “gifted” another odd split. Yesterday, for instance, saw Corey Kluber (and a stackable game) plopped into the middle of the day, accessible only in the all-day or afternoon slate.

Today unfortunately features Jaime Garcia (who has the same number of Pro Trends as Jacob deGrom) scheduled to throw his first pitch nearly six hours before all other pitchers. Tigers-Indians has also been left off the main slate entirely.

It would certainly help to have those players available tonight (especially Garcia, given the pitching landscape), but such is life. Let’s (attempt to) make due with what we have.

(Ahem . . .)

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Jacob deGrom, NYM

In being priced $2,000 higher than any other pitcher, deGrom is the obvious choice in cash for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, he has 1.43 SO/9 more than any other pitcher in the slate. He’s also the only pitcher projected to allow fewer than three runs. Outpacing all other pitchers in moneyline bets by 19 percentage points, deGrom (facing the Padres, no less) is absolutely worth splurging for. Unfortunately, the weather needs to be monitored, as there’s a likely chance of rain within one hour of first pitch. If a downpour remains at a high percentage, it’s likely worth getting off of him (in cash, at least).

Adam Conley, MIA

While deGrom is the clear-cut cash option in this slate, Conley might be preferable to deGrom in tournaments. He has the second-highest SO/9, and his single-digit line-drive percentage rivals deGrom’s over the last two weeks.

Pitchers to Exploit

Chase Anderson, MIL

While there are more than enough options to stack against tonight, Anderson has the impossible task of pitching around a Reds offense that has absolutely destroyed righties as of late. It doesn’t help that his peripherals — 1.46 WHIP, 6.42 SO/9, 1.37 HR/9 — aren’t very good. With the wind blowing out to right field at eight miles per hour, even the Reds noted left-handed hitters (Joey Votto and Jay Bruce) are in play.

Erik Johnson, CWS

I admittedly don’t know much about Johnson outside of the fact that he was prone to allowing home runs in his short time spent in the majors last season. And now he’s facing a Red Sox team with the highest Weighted On-Base (wOBA) vs. right-handed pitching: This can go only downhill. Additionally, note his 2.2 HR/9 allowed to lefties last season, which shines a light particularly on David Ortiz and Travis Shaw tonight.

C

Russ Martin, TOR

Martin bats at the end of Toronto’s lineup, but he remains all too cheap at FanDuel (where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating). With a batted-ball distance of 254 feet, he’s not only an extremely valuable option among catchers but also a unique way to gain confident exposure to the Blue Jays (who are projected to score the most runs tonight).

J.T. Realmuto, MIA

It’s dumb that Miami thinks of Realmuto as a legitimate leadoff hitter, but it’s even dumber if we don’t use him while he has prime batting position. With positive wOBA and Isolated Power (ISO) Differentials tonight, he’s a strong option at the position for cash games.

1B

Chris Carter, MIL

Much like Trevor Story, Carter is volatile enough that you need to pick your spots with care. With Alfredo Simon on the mound, this certainly appears to be a good spot. Per batted-ball distance allowed and HR/9, Simon is a bottom-three pitcher in the slate. The Brewers as a whole are a mess (which is why Simon didn’t make it into the “Exploit” section), but Carter should flourish no matter what.

Justin Smoak, TOR

Smoak has a negative wOBA Differential against lefties, but he still warrants strong tournament consideration if he bats ahead of Troy Tulowitzki again. His salary, after all, remains an absurd $2,500 at FanDuel, which is all too cheap for someone with the highest batted-ball distance (266 feet) at his position.

2B

Robinson Cano, SEA

While Nelson Cruz’s peripherals stood out the most among the Mariners yesterday, Cano appears to be their best play tonight. Both his ISO and batted-ball distance rank in the top three among second basemen.

Tommy La Stella, CHC

You know who has batted the ball further than Cano over the last two weeks? You guessed it. Expected to bat in the top third of Chicago’s lineup today, La Stella is a good cash option (if he actually bats where he’s expected). Note his standout wOBA and ISO Differentials of .142/.169.

3B

Todd Frazier, CWS

Josh Donaldson is such an obvious play that I’m not even going to mention him. After him, the next best option seems to be Frazier, whose 59 percent fly-ball percentage is 14 percentage points higher than Donaldson’s. He’s also $700 cheaper than the latter. Frazier is likely to be overlooked in tournaments despite his positive splits vs. left-handed pitchers.

Brandon Drury, ARI

If Drury continues batting second against lefties, he will remain a viable option, given his top-five slugging percentage at third base. Adam Conley is a tough matchup on the mound tonight, but Drury’s 47 percent hard-hit percentage over the last 15 days should instill confidence.

SS

Zack Cozart, CIN

If you want to exploit Anderson, then Cozart (at the top of Cincinnati’s lineup) is a terrific way to do so. He has negative differentials vs. RHP, but the additional opportunities at leadoff should compensate for any struggles he may have.

OF

Michael Saunders, TOR

Saunders’ actually experienced a Salary Change of -$200 overnight. He has struck out at least three times in two of his last three games, but he is still a good play in cash tonight. Atop Toronto’s lineup, he has otherworldly .100/.345 wOBA and ISO Differentials vs. LHP.

Adam Duvall, CIN

It feels like the 70th consecutive night in which I’ve written up Duvall, but he continues to get better. His batted-ball distance of 257 feet trails only that of Ryan Raburn (who likely won’t play) and Matt Kemp. Additionally, note that he remains underpriced at FanDuel, where he has a 70 percent Bargain Rating.

Michael Conforto/Yoenis Céspedes

If you’re rostering one, then you might as well pay for the other. San Diego isn’t exactly an ideal park to stack hitters, but both Conforto and Céspedes have slugging percentages around .580 and batted-ball distances of 250 feet. If I had to choose only one, I would lean toward Conforto (as his wOBA and ISO Differentials vs. RHP are a dazzling .178/.283), but both players are viable.

Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

Much like Donaldson, Stanton is guaranteed to have the highest ownership at his position. Even so, he’s a lock for cash games, as Robbie Ray’s batted-ball distance allowed is 27 feet further than that of any other pitcher tonight. Now slugging .911 vs. LHP, Stanton might even be preferable to Donaldson (if rostering deGrom or other expensive players limits you to only one).

Weather Watch

Brewers-Reds is expecting a shower around 5 PM ET, but it’s just that: A shower. A slight delay is the worst-case scenario. Mets-Padres, on the other hand, isn’t supposed to see rain until after first pitch (which is an absolute detriment to deGrom tonight). Just stay informed of the situation until lock. If the forecast doesn’t change, then you probably will need to pivot away from deGrom (unfortunately).

Good luck!

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No related posts.

No day games to begin the week clearly spoiled us, as we’ve now been “gifted” another odd split. Yesterday, for instance, saw Corey Kluber (and a stackable game) plopped into the middle of the day, accessible only in the all-day or afternoon slate.

Today unfortunately features Jaime Garcia (who has the same number of Pro Trends as Jacob deGrom) scheduled to throw his first pitch nearly six hours before all other pitchers. Tigers-Indians has also been left off the main slate entirely.

It would certainly help to have those players available tonight (especially Garcia, given the pitching landscape), but such is life. Let’s (attempt to) make due with what we have.

(Ahem . . .)

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Jacob deGrom, NYM

In being priced $2,000 higher than any other pitcher, deGrom is the obvious choice in cash for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, he has 1.43 SO/9 more than any other pitcher in the slate. He’s also the only pitcher projected to allow fewer than three runs. Outpacing all other pitchers in moneyline bets by 19 percentage points, deGrom (facing the Padres, no less) is absolutely worth splurging for. Unfortunately, the weather needs to be monitored, as there’s a likely chance of rain within one hour of first pitch. If a downpour remains at a high percentage, it’s likely worth getting off of him (in cash, at least).

Adam Conley, MIA

While deGrom is the clear-cut cash option in this slate, Conley might be preferable to deGrom in tournaments. He has the second-highest SO/9, and his single-digit line-drive percentage rivals deGrom’s over the last two weeks.

Pitchers to Exploit

Chase Anderson, MIL

While there are more than enough options to stack against tonight, Anderson has the impossible task of pitching around a Reds offense that has absolutely destroyed righties as of late. It doesn’t help that his peripherals — 1.46 WHIP, 6.42 SO/9, 1.37 HR/9 — aren’t very good. With the wind blowing out to right field at eight miles per hour, even the Reds noted left-handed hitters (Joey Votto and Jay Bruce) are in play.

Erik Johnson, CWS

I admittedly don’t know much about Johnson outside of the fact that he was prone to allowing home runs in his short time spent in the majors last season. And now he’s facing a Red Sox team with the highest Weighted On-Base (wOBA) vs. right-handed pitching: This can go only downhill. Additionally, note his 2.2 HR/9 allowed to lefties last season, which shines a light particularly on David Ortiz and Travis Shaw tonight.

C

Russ Martin, TOR

Martin bats at the end of Toronto’s lineup, but he remains all too cheap at FanDuel (where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating). With a batted-ball distance of 254 feet, he’s not only an extremely valuable option among catchers but also a unique way to gain confident exposure to the Blue Jays (who are projected to score the most runs tonight).

J.T. Realmuto, MIA

It’s dumb that Miami thinks of Realmuto as a legitimate leadoff hitter, but it’s even dumber if we don’t use him while he has prime batting position. With positive wOBA and Isolated Power (ISO) Differentials tonight, he’s a strong option at the position for cash games.

1B

Chris Carter, MIL

Much like Trevor Story, Carter is volatile enough that you need to pick your spots with care. With Alfredo Simon on the mound, this certainly appears to be a good spot. Per batted-ball distance allowed and HR/9, Simon is a bottom-three pitcher in the slate. The Brewers as a whole are a mess (which is why Simon didn’t make it into the “Exploit” section), but Carter should flourish no matter what.

Justin Smoak, TOR

Smoak has a negative wOBA Differential against lefties, but he still warrants strong tournament consideration if he bats ahead of Troy Tulowitzki again. His salary, after all, remains an absurd $2,500 at FanDuel, which is all too cheap for someone with the highest batted-ball distance (266 feet) at his position.

2B

Robinson Cano, SEA

While Nelson Cruz’s peripherals stood out the most among the Mariners yesterday, Cano appears to be their best play tonight. Both his ISO and batted-ball distance rank in the top three among second basemen.

Tommy La Stella, CHC

You know who has batted the ball further than Cano over the last two weeks? You guessed it. Expected to bat in the top third of Chicago’s lineup today, La Stella is a good cash option (if he actually bats where he’s expected). Note his standout wOBA and ISO Differentials of .142/.169.

3B

Todd Frazier, CWS

Josh Donaldson is such an obvious play that I’m not even going to mention him. After him, the next best option seems to be Frazier, whose 59 percent fly-ball percentage is 14 percentage points higher than Donaldson’s. He’s also $700 cheaper than the latter. Frazier is likely to be overlooked in tournaments despite his positive splits vs. left-handed pitchers.

Brandon Drury, ARI

If Drury continues batting second against lefties, he will remain a viable option, given his top-five slugging percentage at third base. Adam Conley is a tough matchup on the mound tonight, but Drury’s 47 percent hard-hit percentage over the last 15 days should instill confidence.

SS

Zack Cozart, CIN

If you want to exploit Anderson, then Cozart (at the top of Cincinnati’s lineup) is a terrific way to do so. He has negative differentials vs. RHP, but the additional opportunities at leadoff should compensate for any struggles he may have.

OF

Michael Saunders, TOR

Saunders’ actually experienced a Salary Change of -$200 overnight. He has struck out at least three times in two of his last three games, but he is still a good play in cash tonight. Atop Toronto’s lineup, he has otherworldly .100/.345 wOBA and ISO Differentials vs. LHP.

Adam Duvall, CIN

It feels like the 70th consecutive night in which I’ve written up Duvall, but he continues to get better. His batted-ball distance of 257 feet trails only that of Ryan Raburn (who likely won’t play) and Matt Kemp. Additionally, note that he remains underpriced at FanDuel, where he has a 70 percent Bargain Rating.

Michael Conforto/Yoenis Céspedes

If you’re rostering one, then you might as well pay for the other. San Diego isn’t exactly an ideal park to stack hitters, but both Conforto and Céspedes have slugging percentages around .580 and batted-ball distances of 250 feet. If I had to choose only one, I would lean toward Conforto (as his wOBA and ISO Differentials vs. RHP are a dazzling .178/.283), but both players are viable.

Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

Much like Donaldson, Stanton is guaranteed to have the highest ownership at his position. Even so, he’s a lock for cash games, as Robbie Ray’s batted-ball distance allowed is 27 feet further than that of any other pitcher tonight. Now slugging .911 vs. LHP, Stanton might even be preferable to Donaldson (if rostering deGrom or other expensive players limits you to only one).

Weather Watch

Brewers-Reds is expecting a shower around 5 PM ET, but it’s just that: A shower. A slight delay is the worst-case scenario. Mets-Padres, on the other hand, isn’t supposed to see rain until after first pitch (which is an absolute detriment to deGrom tonight). Just stay informed of the situation until lock. If the forecast doesn’t change, then you probably will need to pivot away from deGrom (unfortunately).

Good luck!

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No related posts.