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MLB DFS 5/4/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s do this. (Also, check out our Vegas page.)

Pitchers

Steven Matz, ATL

The Braves’ struggles against left-handed pitching are documented. They have, after all, the lowest team Isolated Power (ISO) and Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) versus said handedness in the majors. They have a bottom-two strikeout percentage vs. LHP, “outdone” by only the Phillies in that statistic. Although Matz is an elite option regardless of the slate you play today, his 10 Pro Trends — four more than any other pitcher has in the early slate — make him the top play in the first seven games of the day.

Drew Smyly, TB 

Smyly is known for his strikeout prowess, but the Dodgers strike out only 18.2 percent of their at-bats against lefties. Even so, his 10.43 SO/9 trails only Jose Fernandez’s mark in the main slate, and both pitchers are projected to allow only 3.3 runs. As the only pitcher today with a single-digit line-drive percentage, Smyly is intriguing, especially on FanDuel, where he is $2,200 cheaper than Fernandez and has been surpassing his Plus/Minus expectations:

 

Pitchers to Exploit

Jake Peavy, SF

In the all-day slate, I would target Anibal Sanchez above all others, as he has the highest HR/9 allowed. But, since Tigers-Indians has been omitted from the early and main slates, exploiting Peavy is the next best option. Cincinnati does have a .279 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching, but the new installments in their lineup — Zack Cozart (specifically at leadoff), Adam Duvall, and Tucker Barnhart — have all produced a top-10 batted-ball distance at their respective positions. Stacking them in a variety of ways seems like an optimal approach in tournaments.

Colby Lewis, TEX

Lewis has had quality outings in every start this season, but he is bound to regress at some point. If you have any doubts, look no further than his 5.06 xFIP, which is 1.87 higher than his ERA. He also has a bottom-five batted-ball distance allowed over the last two weeks. Toronto exposure will once again be high in cash, but it’s warranted.

Adam Morgan, PHI

Name a category and Morgan “leads” it — exit velocity allowed, fly-ball percentage, hard-hit percentage, etc. If it weren’t for Phil Hughes, he’d even lead the main slate in HR/9. With the wind blowing out to right field at 12 miles per hour, all of St. Louis’ lefty hitters — Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss, Matt Adams, and Jeremy Hazelbaker — should be in for the time of their lives.

C

Tucker Barnhart, CIN

Barnhart doesn’t have the advantage of batting atop Cincinnati’s lineup, but his top-five hard-hit percentage (in the early slate) is always an option against righties. His wOBA Differential of .086 is also nice.

Trevor Brown, SF

It’s plausible that Bruce Bochy will opt to start Buster Posey despite this being a day game, but if not I’d be content with Brown. His .571 slugging percentage over the last year actually qualifies as the highest among catchers.

Jason Castro, HOU

The main slate is plagued with an abundance of non-options at catcher. I lean toward Castro if only because he offers a unique way to gain exposure to Houston. Not only does Phil Hughes have the lowest rating in our Bales Model tonight, but, as mentioned earlier, his 1.54 HR/9 is the highest of this entire slate.

1B

Brett Wallace, SD

Batting cleanup in back-to-back performances for San Diego, Wallace is still priced at an absurd $2,100 on FanDuel. His .102 ISO Differential makes him viable in cash and tournaments alike.

Justin Bour, MIA

Bour’s batted-ball distance has quietly crept into the top three among first basemen over the last two weeks. With a top-two ISO Differential in the main slate, he’s certainly capable of exploiting Rubby De La Rosa’s 1.45 HR/9.

2B

Daniel Murphy, WSH

Murphy has a batted-ball distance that is nine feet better than any other second baseman’s in the early slate. His .492 slugging percentage is also the highest. Given Kris Medlen’s bottom-five hard-hit percentage and batted-ball distance allowed, it would not at all be shocking to see Murphy finish as the highest-scoring second basemen of the day.

Derek Dietrich, MIA

With a righty back on the mound, Dietrich has a chance to return to the top of Miami’s lineup. And if that happened, he would easily be the strongest option among second basemen today. Note his dazzling wOBA and ISO Differentials of .152/.182 vs. RHP.

3B

Kyle Seager, SEA

Unbeknownst to many, Seager’s exit velocity (94 MPH) is actually the same as Nolan Arenado’s. With positive splits (and a .502 slugging percentage) vs. LHP, Seager is in a terrific spot, as Sean Manaea’s HR/9 is .30 higher than anyone else’s in the early slate.

Tommy La Stella, CHC

With the bevy of injuries scattered throughout Chicago’s roster, La Stella is expected to continue playing, especially against righties (even if doesn’t bat near the top of the lineup). His nine Pro Trends (highest at third base) make him a strong option in cash games and tournaments. Note his standout wOBA and ISO Differentials of .142/.169.

Evan Longoria, TB

Longoria is always a terrific option against a lefty, but his 95 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel makes him downright delicious. Although his hard-hit percentage is 11 percentage points fewer than Josh Donaldson’s, Longoria should be considered the strongest option among third basemen in the main slate.

SS

Troy Tulowitzki, TOR

Only Brad Miller is somewhat close to Tulowitzki as a hitter right now, and even his batted-ball distance has been -21 feet shorter over the last two weeks. Despite owning a negative wOBA Differential vs. RHP, Tulo is so enticing that he almost makes me want to play in the all-day slate.

OF

Adam Duvall, CIN

I don’t believe in hot hands or cold streaks, but I do believe in hitters when they’re knocking the sh*t out of the ball. Hence the suggested ownership towards Duvall for the second consecutive day, as his batted-ball distance of 270 feet continues to be the highest among everyday outfielders.

Domingo Santana, MIL

If Santana continues to lead off for Milwaukee, he should continue to find his way into your lineups. It’s an especially terrific spot for him tonight, as our models show him with wOBA and ISO Differentials of .121/.103 vs. LHP. His slugging percentage against said handedness (.575) is also top-seven among outfielders.

Jose Bautista, TOR

Bautista is one of only six outfielders with a single-digit line-drive percentage tonight, but it still wouldn’t surprise me to see him have the highest lineup percentage at the position in cash games. He’s arguably the best option to exploit Lewis’ aforementioned horrid peripehrals.

Mark Trumbo, BAL

His lineup percentage will likely be high if only because of his two homeruns last night, but it’s nonetheless another immaculate spot for Trumbo. Not only is his .571 slugging percentage top-five among outfielders tonight, but his ISO Differential vs. LHP is top-two. Additionally, note C.C. Sabathia’s 1.42 HR/9.

Weather Watch

I would expect Diamondbacks-Marlins to commence with a closed roof, but a 12 MPH gust towards left field would certainly do wonders if they decided to leave the roof open. Either way, the game will be played. Yankees-Orioles is the only other game worth monitoring tonight, although all inclement weather is expected to clear by 3 PM ET.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

Let’s do this. (Also, check out our Vegas page.)

Pitchers

Steven Matz, ATL

The Braves’ struggles against left-handed pitching are documented. They have, after all, the lowest team Isolated Power (ISO) and Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) versus said handedness in the majors. They have a bottom-two strikeout percentage vs. LHP, “outdone” by only the Phillies in that statistic. Although Matz is an elite option regardless of the slate you play today, his 10 Pro Trends — four more than any other pitcher has in the early slate — make him the top play in the first seven games of the day.

Drew Smyly, TB 

Smyly is known for his strikeout prowess, but the Dodgers strike out only 18.2 percent of their at-bats against lefties. Even so, his 10.43 SO/9 trails only Jose Fernandez’s mark in the main slate, and both pitchers are projected to allow only 3.3 runs. As the only pitcher today with a single-digit line-drive percentage, Smyly is intriguing, especially on FanDuel, where he is $2,200 cheaper than Fernandez and has been surpassing his Plus/Minus expectations:

 

Pitchers to Exploit

Jake Peavy, SF

In the all-day slate, I would target Anibal Sanchez above all others, as he has the highest HR/9 allowed. But, since Tigers-Indians has been omitted from the early and main slates, exploiting Peavy is the next best option. Cincinnati does have a .279 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching, but the new installments in their lineup — Zack Cozart (specifically at leadoff), Adam Duvall, and Tucker Barnhart — have all produced a top-10 batted-ball distance at their respective positions. Stacking them in a variety of ways seems like an optimal approach in tournaments.

Colby Lewis, TEX

Lewis has had quality outings in every start this season, but he is bound to regress at some point. If you have any doubts, look no further than his 5.06 xFIP, which is 1.87 higher than his ERA. He also has a bottom-five batted-ball distance allowed over the last two weeks. Toronto exposure will once again be high in cash, but it’s warranted.

Adam Morgan, PHI

Name a category and Morgan “leads” it — exit velocity allowed, fly-ball percentage, hard-hit percentage, etc. If it weren’t for Phil Hughes, he’d even lead the main slate in HR/9. With the wind blowing out to right field at 12 miles per hour, all of St. Louis’ lefty hitters — Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss, Matt Adams, and Jeremy Hazelbaker — should be in for the time of their lives.

C

Tucker Barnhart, CIN

Barnhart doesn’t have the advantage of batting atop Cincinnati’s lineup, but his top-five hard-hit percentage (in the early slate) is always an option against righties. His wOBA Differential of .086 is also nice.

Trevor Brown, SF

It’s plausible that Bruce Bochy will opt to start Buster Posey despite this being a day game, but if not I’d be content with Brown. His .571 slugging percentage over the last year actually qualifies as the highest among catchers.

Jason Castro, HOU

The main slate is plagued with an abundance of non-options at catcher. I lean toward Castro if only because he offers a unique way to gain exposure to Houston. Not only does Phil Hughes have the lowest rating in our Bales Model tonight, but, as mentioned earlier, his 1.54 HR/9 is the highest of this entire slate.

1B

Brett Wallace, SD

Batting cleanup in back-to-back performances for San Diego, Wallace is still priced at an absurd $2,100 on FanDuel. His .102 ISO Differential makes him viable in cash and tournaments alike.

Justin Bour, MIA

Bour’s batted-ball distance has quietly crept into the top three among first basemen over the last two weeks. With a top-two ISO Differential in the main slate, he’s certainly capable of exploiting Rubby De La Rosa’s 1.45 HR/9.

2B

Daniel Murphy, WSH

Murphy has a batted-ball distance that is nine feet better than any other second baseman’s in the early slate. His .492 slugging percentage is also the highest. Given Kris Medlen’s bottom-five hard-hit percentage and batted-ball distance allowed, it would not at all be shocking to see Murphy finish as the highest-scoring second basemen of the day.

Derek Dietrich, MIA

With a righty back on the mound, Dietrich has a chance to return to the top of Miami’s lineup. And if that happened, he would easily be the strongest option among second basemen today. Note his dazzling wOBA and ISO Differentials of .152/.182 vs. RHP.

3B

Kyle Seager, SEA

Unbeknownst to many, Seager’s exit velocity (94 MPH) is actually the same as Nolan Arenado’s. With positive splits (and a .502 slugging percentage) vs. LHP, Seager is in a terrific spot, as Sean Manaea’s HR/9 is .30 higher than anyone else’s in the early slate.

Tommy La Stella, CHC

With the bevy of injuries scattered throughout Chicago’s roster, La Stella is expected to continue playing, especially against righties (even if doesn’t bat near the top of the lineup). His nine Pro Trends (highest at third base) make him a strong option in cash games and tournaments. Note his standout wOBA and ISO Differentials of .142/.169.

Evan Longoria, TB

Longoria is always a terrific option against a lefty, but his 95 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel makes him downright delicious. Although his hard-hit percentage is 11 percentage points fewer than Josh Donaldson’s, Longoria should be considered the strongest option among third basemen in the main slate.

SS

Troy Tulowitzki, TOR

Only Brad Miller is somewhat close to Tulowitzki as a hitter right now, and even his batted-ball distance has been -21 feet shorter over the last two weeks. Despite owning a negative wOBA Differential vs. RHP, Tulo is so enticing that he almost makes me want to play in the all-day slate.

OF

Adam Duvall, CIN

I don’t believe in hot hands or cold streaks, but I do believe in hitters when they’re knocking the sh*t out of the ball. Hence the suggested ownership towards Duvall for the second consecutive day, as his batted-ball distance of 270 feet continues to be the highest among everyday outfielders.

Domingo Santana, MIL

If Santana continues to lead off for Milwaukee, he should continue to find his way into your lineups. It’s an especially terrific spot for him tonight, as our models show him with wOBA and ISO Differentials of .121/.103 vs. LHP. His slugging percentage against said handedness (.575) is also top-seven among outfielders.

Jose Bautista, TOR

Bautista is one of only six outfielders with a single-digit line-drive percentage tonight, but it still wouldn’t surprise me to see him have the highest lineup percentage at the position in cash games. He’s arguably the best option to exploit Lewis’ aforementioned horrid peripehrals.

Mark Trumbo, BAL

His lineup percentage will likely be high if only because of his two homeruns last night, but it’s nonetheless another immaculate spot for Trumbo. Not only is his .571 slugging percentage top-five among outfielders tonight, but his ISO Differential vs. LHP is top-two. Additionally, note C.C. Sabathia’s 1.42 HR/9.

Weather Watch

I would expect Diamondbacks-Marlins to commence with a closed roof, but a 12 MPH gust towards left field would certainly do wonders if they decided to leave the roof open. Either way, the game will be played. Yankees-Orioles is the only other game worth monitoring tonight, although all inclement weather is expected to clear by 3 PM ET.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.