Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Nate Karns, SEA
Sure, the Padres strike out in 26.8 percent of their at-bats against right-handed pitching, but Karns’ worth goes beyond that. He has also limited opposing hitters to an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour in the last 15 days. Furthermore, no other pitcher today can claim double-digit Pro Trends. Jeff Samardzija is projected to allow 0.3 fewer runs than Karns, but the latter’s ceiling remains higher due to averaging 1.98 more strikeouts per nine innings. Even in cash games, note that Karns’ 56 percent Consistency remains six percent higher than Samardzija’s this season.
Jose Quintana, CWS
Quintana hasn’t received near the percentage of moneyline bets that Karns has, but the former is implied to allow fewer runs. The Mets have also produced a horrendous 27.2 strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching. If anything, take solace in the fact that Quintana’s floor is high due to his slate-low 0.54 home runs per nine innings allowed. His 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel additionally allows for said floor to be achieved much easier.
Jeremy Hellickson, PHI
Hellickson has only averaged 16.7 DraftKings points this month, but note his recent improvements. For instance, opposing batters have averaged a lowly 18 percent hard-hit rate against him over his last two starts. He’s also allowed a batted-ball distance 38 feet shorter in that span. Hellickson’s 1.38 HR/9 rate in the past year is worrisome, but at least opponents have recently averaged an exit velocity 3.0 MPH softer against him.
Pitchers to Exploit
Kendall Graveman, OAK
Minnesota has produced a bottom-seven strikeout rate versus right-handers this season, but their projected .300 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is top-10 today. Graveman has also allowed 1.46 HR/9 in the last year. He’s admittedly induced a top-four groundball rate recently, but Graveman’s 20 percent Consistency is tied with Carlos Martinez and Matt Harvey for the lowest of the evening. At least the latter two can claim a SO/9 greater than 6.68.
Michael Foltynewicz, ATL
San Francisco’s projected .330 wOBA is already a tough draw for “Folty,” but his whopping 2.19 HR/9 doesn’t help matters. He’s also received the lowest percentage of moneyline bets today (although facing Samardzija probably has something to do with that). Worse is that the Giants don’t even need to hit the ball in order to get to him; their top-two walk percentage against righties is really the perfect complement for Folty’s slate-high 1.76 WHIP.
Justin Nicolino, MIA
Nicolino has recently been pelted for an exit velocity 3.0 MPH harder than any other pitcher today. Not only that, but the hard-hit percentage he’s allowed in that span is also the highest by 15 percent. Don’t be fooled by his slate-high Park Factor — even pitching in Miami can’t hide the fact that he’s allowed a 236-foot batted-ball distance over the last 15 days.
Derek Holland, TEX
Holland’s 97 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings is really his only standout peripheral. For example, only Justin Nicolino and Tyler Wilson have produced a worse SO/9 this season. Holland has also recorded a Dud in 50 percent of his performances this month. His exit velocity in the last two weeks is actually tied with Justin Verlander’s, but he hasn’t had to face a projected .352 wOBA in that span, either.
C
Jonathan Lucroy, MIL
Carlos Martinez has allowed a minuscule 0.56 HR/9 in the past year, but he’s averaged only 0.1 more DraftKings points than Matt Harvey in the last month. That’s terrific for Lucroy, whose batted-ball distance today is top-10 at his position. Note that only Chris Herrmann and Lucroy have averaged double-digit DraftKings points in May.
J.T. Realmuto, MIA
Not only has Realmuto hit the ball 15 feet farther in his last 12 starts, but his hard-hit percentage in that time is two percent harder than Brian McCann’s. McCann will still probably be higher owned, but Realmuto has also produced a slugging percentage .017 higher this season. Despite a negative wOBA Differential, Realmuto is clearly in too good of a spot to have a 90 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.
1B
Mike Napoli, CLE
Napoli has quietly produced an exit velocity in the last 10 days that trails only Miguel Cabrera and Matt Adams among first basemen. His 227-foot batted-ball distance is admittedly just outside the top 10, but he’s still slugging .529 against left-handed pitching. Napoli’s .098 wOBA Differential is also top-four.
Justin Smoak, TOR
Edwin Encarnacion still has a slugging percentage that’s .089 higher than Smoak’s, but the latter has shown signs of improvement recently. Just note his batted-ball distance that’s 14 feet farther than Encarnacion’s in the last 11 days. Smoak has also hit the ball 28 percent harder than Encarnacion in that span. Miguel Cabrera, Steve Pearce, and Ryan Zimmerman have recorded a higher exit velocity in that time, but Smoak’s .229 Isolated Power (ISO) is greater than all three.
2B
Brandon Phillips, CIN
Phillip’s recent batted-ball distance is average at best, but it’s not often a cleanup hitter at Coors Field costs less than $4,000. His 70 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel makes him even more of a value. As for cash games, his 48 percent Consistency in the last month is quietly top-10 among second basemen.
Jose Altuve, HOU
Not much is known about Edwin Escobar (today makes his first start of the year), but the fact he’s left-handed already gives Altuve a leg up. Just note the second baseman’s 94 MPH exit velocity of late, which is the highest among starters. His .555 slugging percentage trails only Robinson Cano tonight. He also boasts an absurd 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.
Steve Pearce, TB
Our Player Models show Pearce with a negative ISO Differential, but his .456 slugging percentage is still top-five among second basemen in the Main Slate. Ian Kinsler has produced a batted-ball distance 20 feet farther than Pearce recently, but the former also has a -.078 wOBA Differential. At least Pearce’s splits are only slightly in the red (despite producing an equivalent Consistency to Kinsler this month).
3B
Brandon Drury, ARI
Most players might prefer to pay for Nolan Arenado this afternoon, but it’s Drury who’s quietly averaged the farther batted-ball distance recently. The latter has also hit the ball eight percent harder than Arenado in the last two weeks. Drury’s 84 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings is nearly a must-own given his 45 percent Consistency (typically unheard of for that price range) in the last month.
Jung-ho Kang, PIT
Kang’s peripherals would be considered standout in any slate, but they’re of the utmost elite with only five games tonight. For instance, his recent 271-foot batted-ball distance is 35 feet farther than any other third baseman. His 97 MPH exit velocity in that span is 1.0 MPH harder. Kang has negative differentials versus southpaws, but he’s still one of only two third basemen tonight that’s averaged double-digit DraftKings points in the last month.
SS
Jurickson Profar, TEX
Profar’s batted-ball distance since his call-up has been rather poor, but he’s still a leadoff hitter that costs only $3,000. More notably for tonight is Josh Tomlin’s 1.83 HR/9 allowed to left-handed hitters this season.
Jordy Mercer, PIT
Mercer is only slugging .391, but he has positive differentials throughout versus left-handed pitching. He’ll also likely bat leadoff for an offense projected to score the most runs in the Main Slate. Additionally, Justin Nicolino’s batted-ball distance in the last two weeks trails only Jason Hammel and Alex Wood for the farthest allowed.
OF
Adam Duvall, CIN
Duvall’s .553 slugging percentage is quietly .038 higher than Jay Bruce’s. His ISO is .036 greater. Meanwhile, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance 32 feet farther than Bruce in the last 11 days. Needless to say, the Reds outfielder to own today is clearly the one that’s averaged 10.4 DraftKings points per game in the last month (Duvall, in case you were wondering).
Giancarlo Stanton, MIA
Opponents have averaged a batted-ball distance 15 feet farther against Jeff Locke recently. Not that Stanton even needs the help: He’s slugging .867 versus left-handed pitching. His .264 ISO Differential against said handedness is also the highest among outfielders. If anything, consider Stanton a steal at FanDuel, where his salary has plummeted $1,300 in the last month.
Corey Dickerson, TB
Kennedy’s 9.53 SO/9 could trump the Rays as a whole, but note his 1.35 HR/9. That’s a terrible peripheral to have when Dickerson is slugging .593 opposite of you. Dickerson’s .229 wOBA Differential is also significant, especially since his 231-foot batted-ball distance lately is tied with Mike Trout and Stanton over the last 10 days.
Weather Watch
Not only is today a holiday, but we have essentially no weather concerns. Set your lineups and get out there.
Good luck!
