Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Carlos Rodon, CWS
Madison Bumgarner and Danny Salazar — arguably the two top options in the Early slate — have admittedly recorded 1.4 and 0.5 more strikeouts per nine innings, respectively, than Rodon. Even so, the Royals have notably produced a .288 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against left-handed pitching. Their .360 slugging percentage is also bottom-six in the Majors.
There are those at his position that have allowed a lower line-drive percentage of late, but note that opponents have still recorded a hard-hit rate nine percent softer against Rodon in the last 15 days. His exit velocity allowed in that span is also top-two today, trailing Kyle Hendricks by only 3.0 miles per hour.
Madison Bumgarner, SF
Bumgarner has historically produced a -3.20 Plus/Minus in three starts at Coors Field (which can be seen in our FREE Trends tool). But let’s say we account for that. As of now, Bumgarner has averaged 6.6 more DraftKings points than Danny Salazar in the past month. So, if we factor in his results from Denver and both their averages hold true, Bumgarner is still likely to outscore Salazar by 3.4 points (relative to their salaries, of course).
Bumgarner is also the only pitcher that’s produced an 80-percent Consistency in that span. Colorado is implied to score 4.8 runs, but note their -1.81 Plus/Minus when facing lefties at home this season.
Zack Greinke, ARI
Greinke has quietly recorded a higher Consistency rating than Noah Syndergaard (likely the most popular selection tonight) in as many games over the last month. And as it pertains to the Main slate, San Diego’s projected strikeouts per at-bat rate is .041 higher than the Dodgers’ projected mark. This is not surprising given the Padres’ 24.6-percent strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching.
Syndergaard’s batted-ball distance allowed is 41 feet shorter than Greinke’s in the last two weeks, but their respective matchups still favor the latter. “At least San Diego doesn’t have a .320 projected wOBA” is another way of putting it.
Pitchers to Exploit
Alfredo Simon, CIN
Simon is the lowest-Rated pitcher in our Bales Model today, but his issues go beyond that. He’s also allowed at least nine hits in consecutive starts, permitting a 37-percent hard-hit rate in that span. The Brewers’ .302 SO/AB rate is far and away the highest among offenses, but that is less important because Simon averages only 5.97 SO/9. Despite his improved batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days, Simon has also allowed 1.63 home runs per nine innings in the past year.
Matt Boyd, DET
Boyd allowed 2.67 HR/9 just last year, but that has yet to show in 2016. His 2.44 walks per nine innings in AAA have, however, which explains Boyd’s three walks against Cleveland in his lone start this season. That clearly doesn’t bode well against an Oakland team whose projected wOBA already sits at .280. Note that Boyd’s 224-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last year is also the highest among pitchers this afternoon.
Phil Hughes, MIN
Jered Weaver’s batted-ball distance is actually four feet farther than Hughes’ of late, but the latter takes the cake in most other categories. Hughes’ line-drive percentage is eight percent higher, all the while his hard-hit percentage is five percent more. Also, his 94-MPH exit velocity is tied for the worst among pitchers. Seattle has better differentials against left-handed pitching, but their .303 projected wOBA against Hughes is all that’s needed in this case.
C
Yan Gomes, CLE
As bad as Hughes has been, Ubaldo Jimenez has produced an equivalent Dud percentage in the last month. That clearly favors Gomes, who’s hit the ball 26 feet farther in the last 15 days. His fly-ball percentage in that span is also the highest among starting catchers.
Jonathan Lucroy, MIL
Chris Herrmann and Lucroy are the only catchers slugging at least .470 at this time. Lucroy, however, includes an obscene discount that Herrmann doesn’t have. Just note the former’s 95-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. His batted-ball distance in the last two weeks is also 40 feet farther than Herrmann’s.
Jason Castro, HOU
Opponents have tagged Jered Weaver for a batted-ball distance 17 feet farther in the last 15 days. Castro has coincidentally produced a hard-hit percentage 11 percent higher than any other catcher in that span. Our Player Models also show him with dazzling wOBA and ISO Differentials of .138 and .176.
1B
Chris Carter, MIL
Most would be impressed by Max Muncy’s 99-MPH exit velocity of late, but not Carter. After all, his exit velocity in that span sits at triple digits. He’s also averaged a batted-ball distance 31 feet farther than Miguel Cabrera. All of that is enough to warrant exposure at DraftKings, but he still includes a slate-high 11 Pro Trends at FanDuel (due to his $1,100 discount there).
Adam Lind, SEA
Assuming Lind starts, it’s really the perfect slate for his .469 slugging percentage. It helps that he’s facing Phil Hughes, but note that his 93-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel is all too low for someone averaging a top-three batted-ball distance at his position. Lind has also pelted the ball 11 percent harder in the last two weeks.
2B
Joe Panik, SF
In no way does Panik include any amount of discount at DraftKings — that’s reserved for his 98-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel — and yet he’s still the highest-Rated second baseman in our Bales Model. That goes to show what a 218-foot batted-ball distance at that position will do. His .474 slugging percentage is also top-five.
Jurickson Profar, TEX
We obviously don’t have any evidence on how Profar has performed of late, but I can guarantee that DraftKings raises his salary if he continues batting leadoff (while Rougned Odor is out). That alone is reason to roster him right now, especially since other viable options in the Main slate — Robinson Cano, Jose Altuve, and Jean Segura — cost an arm and a leg. At least with Profar, you would be rostering the leadoff hitter for a team implied to score 5.0 runs.
3B
Derek Dietrich, MIA
Aaron Blair has allowed a hard-hit percentage 19 percent harder than any other pitcher in the Early slate. His line-drive percentage in that span is also the highest by a whopping 27 percent. Dietrich’s .113 ISO Differential is impressive, but he’s also been one of the more consistent third basemen this month. Just note his 52-percent Consistency rating, which leads the likes of Manny Machado and Evan Longoria.
Brandon Drury, ARI
Drury needs be rostered if only for his 75-percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. In fact, only Jung-ho Kang, David Wright, Matt Carpenter, and Anthony Rendon have averaged a farther batted-ball distance recently, and all cost at least $600 more. Drury has a negative wOBA Differential, but it’s not often a top-four slugging percentage becomes such a value.
SS
Brandon Crawford, SF
Crawford not only has the highest ISO Differential among shortstops, but his .088 wOBA Differential is also ranked top-six. His 196-foot batted-ball distance of late is certainly subpar, but a 99-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel is still uncalled for. The fact that Brad Miller is the only shortstop with higher Upside in the last month is all the more reason to take the discount.
Danny Espinosa, WSH
Espinosa’s .139 ISO barely makes the cut in the top 10, but his recent batted-ball distance is farther than anyone else at his position. Adam Wainwright is additionally the lowest-Rated pitcher in our Bales Model in the Main slate. And don’t allow Wainwright’s impressive 0.75 HR/9 deter you: Lefties are still averaging .320 against him.
OF
Denard Span, SF
Span’s salary has increased $1,400 in the past night, but he’s arguably worth it given the Giants’ 5.5 implied runs. Just don’t expect him to hit a home run — he’s averaging only .003 per at-bat. Even so, leading off for the Giants in Coors Field ensures he’ll exceed salary-based expectation by either scoring runs or displaying why he’s averaged .179 steals per game. Span has also averaged a batted-ball distance 30 feet farther in the last 15 days.
Khris Davis, OAK
Remember that whole thing about Matt Boyd allowing 2.67 HR/9 last season? Eleven of those were permitted to right-handed batters in only 41 innings pitched. That obviously favors Davis, whose exit velocity in the last 15 days is tied for third-highest among outfielders. He’s also hit the ball eight percent harder in that span.
Adam Duvall, CIN
If it weren’t for Boyd, Chase Anderson’s 1.76 HR/9 would be the highest of the day. Unfortunately for him, Duvall’s .161 ISO Differential against righties is top-three in the Early slate. He’s also averaged a recent 235-foot batted-ball distance despite hitting the ball 10 percent softer in that time.
Nomar Mazara, TEX
Juan Nicasio’s 9.66 SO/9 rate is the second-highest in the Main slate, but he’s notably struggled against left-handed batters this season. For instance, he’s allowed 2.37 HR/9 to said handedness. Meanwhile, lefties have crushed him for .293/.155 slugging and wOBA differentials, which ultimately complements Mazara’s .560 slugging percentage.
Weather Watch
Thunderstorms could potentially interrupt Orioles-Indians this afternoon, but it wouldn’t occur until later. Danny Salazar (or Ubaldo Jimenez, if you wish) should still be able to accrue without interruption.
Good luck!
