Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Felix Hernandez, SEA
Hernandez and Max Scherzer are implied to allow a similar run total, but the Twins are projected to strike out in .023 more at-bats than St. Louis. That’s not surprising given Minnesota’s meddling 23.3-percent strikeout rate against right-handers this season. Hernandez’s batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks is also 26 feet shorter than his yearly average. He’s taking in the highest percentage of moneyline bets tonight for a reason.
Julio Urias, LAD
If you haven’t heard of Urias, his hyperbolic-like numbers in the Pacific Coast League — 44 strikeouts in 41 innings pitched — might frighten you. If you have heard of him, his 1.10 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in that span probably still frightens you. And all at the age of 19. Needless to say, the kid is referred to as a phenom for a reason. And as it pertains to a night, Urias has been gifted a Mets team that’s tied for the highest strikeout percentage against lefties. He also has a 77-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.
Pitchers to Exploit
Michael Fulmer, DET
Fulmer induced 11 strikeouts the last time out, but that was against a Rays team whiffing in 26.3 percent of their at-bats against right-handed pitching. Oakland’s projected .211 strikeouts per at-bat are the third fewest among offenses tonight. Meanwhile, Fulmer’s 1.72 home runs per nine innings allowed in the last year is the highest mark in this slate. His 262-foot batted-ball distance allowed of late is also 20 feet farther than any other pitcher.
Robbie Ray, ARI
Ray’s -165 moneyline makes him the second-highest favorite of the evening. Even so, the Padres’ .155 Isolated Power (ISO) against southpaws is quietly top-10 in the majors. Their projected .292 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), although average in relation to tonight’s slate, is respectable. Take pride in knowing that Ray has allowed 1.35 HR/9 to right-handed batters, which San Diego coincidentally features in four of their first five hitters.
C
Salvador Perez, KC
Since Miguel Gonzalez was simply pushed back a day following their postponement, Perez’s peripherals are still viable. After all, he’s one of only two starting catchers with a slugging percentage of at least .500 tonight. He’s also averaged 21 DraftKings points in his last three performances. The fact that he has hit the ball 21 feet farther in the last 15 days is only another plus.
1B
Chris Carter, MIL
Carter’s 10 Pro Trends are the most among first basemen, but that’s not all. He’s averaged a batted-ball distance 26 feet farther than Miguel Cabrera’s in the last 15 days. Carter has also produced an exit velocity 3.0 MPH faster in that span. Despite a -.059 ISO Differential, his 60-percent hard-hit rate is certainly viable across formats.
Carlos Santana, CLE
As if leading off weren’t enough, Santana’s .111 ISO Differential is top-eight among first basemen. His exit velocity in the last 15 days is tied for fifth-highest. Only Matt Cain (21.45) has a lower Rating than Mike Wright (22.55) in our Bales Player Model tonight.
2B
Derek Dietrich, MIA
Williams Perez has scored at least 24.45 DraftKings points in two of his last three starts, but both performances came against Philadelphia. He’s failed to score over 6.5 DraftKings points in his other four starts. That certainly bodes well for Dietrich, who’s ranked top-10 in just about every category that matters for hitters — wOBA, wOBA Differential, ISO, ISO Differential, and slugging percentage.
Brett Lawrie, CWS
Danny Duffy has produced a 100-percent Consistency rating in his last two starts, but he has also exceeded expectations based on a reliever’s salary ($5,100 and $5,500) in those performances. Lawrie might not receive many opportunities against him (since Duffy will once again be limited), but note the second baseman’s .083 wOBA Differential against left-handed pitching. His .216 ISO against said handedness is also top-five.
3B
Adrian Beltre, TEX
Opponents have actually averaged a recent batted-ball distance 32 feet shorter against Jon Niese, but those opponents were also the Braves (who notably have the lowest wOBA and ISO against lefties) and Rockies (away from Coors Field, of course). Needless to say, Niese hasn’t faced an opponent such as Beltre — who has a .546 slugging percentage — in at least three weeks.
SS
Trevor Story, COL
Matt Cain has notably struggled more with right-handed batters this season, allowing 1.80 HR/9 (which would qualify as the highest in this slate). That makes tonight the perfect spot for Trevor Story, whose 236-foot batted-ball distance is top-two among starting shortstops. Although negative Differentials against righties, note that Story’s .558 slugging percentage as a whole is still top-four at his position.
Carlos Correa, HOU
Our Player Models show Correa with a -.018 ISO Differential, but his actual slugging percentage remains top-10 among shortstops. His 46-percent hard-hit percentage in the last 15 days is top-five. Note that Matt Shoemaker has been rocked for a batted-ball distance of 217 feet in his last two starts.
OF
Ian Desmond, TEX
Desmond’s 202-foot batted-ball distance of late is admittedly average compared to others at his position. Of course, most others don’t have as impressive a wOBA Differential, either. Also note that Desmond has hit the ball four percent harder in the last 15 days, which makes all the more reason to nab his 86-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.
J.D. Martinez, DET
Sean Manaea has notably allowed 1.93 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season. With that in mind, Martinez’s 266-foot batted-ball distance is almost certain to come through. His 97 MPH exit velocity (and hard-hit percentage) in the last 15 days leads all starting outfielders in this slate, and has inevitably produced noticeable results (which can be seen in our FREE Trends tool):
Yasmany Tomas, ARI
Tomas’ salary has risen $200 overnight, but he still includes a 95-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. That’s clearly all too cheap given his .591 slugging percentage against southpaws. Note that his .135/.162 wOBA and ISO Differentials are both also top-eight among outfielders tonight.
Weather Watch
I doubt White Sox-Royals is looking to postpone in two consecutive days, but that’s exactly where we’re heading. Thunderstorms aren’t expected to stop anytime soon. Twins-Mariners could potentially start with a delay, but the rain should allow for the entire game to be played soon after. And also keep an eye on Giants-Rockies since thunderstorms could delay this one mid-play (which keeps all their hitters completely viable).
Good luck!
