Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Jose Fernandez, MIA
Fernandez’s 12.03 strikeouts per nine innings are 1.7 more than any other pitcher has tonight. He would typically be a great option anyway, but with only eight games he’s elite. The Rays have coincidentally struck out in 25.7 percent of their at-bats versus right-handed pitching, as well. Don’t let Fernandez’s $2,200 increased price tag at DraftKings deter you. Sure, he might have a 98-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, but at DK he still has an 80-percent Consistency in the last month despite the uptick in salary. And this evening only Gerrit Cole has as many Pro Trends (accessible via our free Ratings tool).
Kevin Gausman, BAL
Drew Smyly will likely be the second-most-popular choice (behind Fernandez), but the former has received only 19 percent of moneyline bets tonight. Gausman, much like Fernandez, has received 80 percent. Houston’s .287 projected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is also bottom-three tonight. And, as if Gausman didn’t have enough going for him, Houston’s .291 strikeouts per at-bat are bottom-two (trailing only the Brewers, because duh). Also, per our advanced stats, opponents have recorded a below-average 25-percent hard-hit rate against Gausman in his previous two starts.
Pitchers to Exploit
Jon Gray, COL
Gray is one of only three available pitchers averaging double-digit SO/9, but that’s easily his strongest trait, and Boston strikes out in only 18.9 percent of its at-bats vs. RHP. Note that our Vegas dashboard also attributes the Red Sox with the highest Team Value Rating tonight. Gray’s 213-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last year trails only Matt Wisler’s (230 feet) and Drew Smyly’s (219).
Miguel Gonzalez, CWS
The Royals recorded eight strikeouts against Gonzalez in his last outing, but his home runs per nine innings are still .028 more than the HR/9 of any other pitcher in this slate. Kansas City’s projected SO/AB are also the lowest in this slate (by a .015 margin). Despite their implied total sinking 0.2 runs just this morning, the Royals (4.7 runs) are still second only to the Red Sox (5.4) tonight.
C
Salvador Perez, KC
Perez is the only catcher with a slugging percentage of at least .500 tonight. He has also averaged 21 DraftKings points in his last three performances. That he has hit the ball 21 feet farther in the last 15 days is only a plus.
Jonathan Lucroy, MIL
The Brewers’ strikeout rate vs. RHP is well documented, but Matt Wisler’s recent line-drive percentage allowed is the highest tonight. Lucroy’s 225-foot batted-ball distance in that span is coincidentally top-six among catchers. His .366 wOBA vs. RHP is second only to Francisco Cervelli’s in this slate.
1B
David Ortiz, BOS
Chris Carter and Chris Davis have hit the ball farther in the last 15 days, but neither are slated to face Jon Gray tonight. That, of course, is significant since Ortiz’s .439 wOBA and .671 slugging percentage are the highest vs. RHP. His nine Pro Trends at first base are also the most among starters.
2B
Daniel Murphy, WSH
Devon Travis and Tony Kemp have the edge on Murphy in terms of slugging percentage, but the latter has recently hit the ball 17 and 64 feet farther than the other two. His recent exit velocity of 91 miles per hour is also at least four MPH faster than either of theirs. Note that Mike Leake has allowed 1.27 HR/9 more to left-handed (as opposed to right-handed) batters this season.
Brett Lawrie, CWS
Danny Duffy has produced a 100-percent Consistency in his last two starts, but he has also exceeded expectations based on a reliever’s salary ($5,100/$5,500) in those performances. Lawrie might not receive many opportunities against him (since Duffy will once again be limited), but note the second baseman’s .083 wOBA Differential against left-handed pitching. His .216 ISO against said handedness is also top-five.
3B
Alex Rodriguez, NYY
Rodriguez is expected to return to New York’s lineup immediately, which makes his .581 slugging percentage against lefties relevant. His .112 ISO Differential is also the highest among third basemen, which is extremely beneficial in a smaller slate (assuming that his ownership is low due to recent injury). Only Chase d’Arnaud and Josh Donaldson have produced a higher wOBA than Rodriguez.
Jung-ho Kang, PIT
Kang has negative differentials against southpaws, but his recent batted-ball distance is 30 feet farther than Matt Carpenter’s (the closest starter). Kang’s 60-percent hard-hit rate trails only Reid Brignac’s for the highest among tonight’s player pool. He also leads the slate with 11 Pro Trends.
SS
Aledmys Diaz, STL
Diaz’s peripherals are so much better than anyone else’s at his position that it’s hard not to take notice. For example, his .618 slugging percentage is .058 higher than Manny Machado’s. Diaz’s wOBA is also .011 more than Jimmy Rollins’. His batted-ball distance of late is somewhat lackluster, but his 51-percent Consistency this season is still the highest among starting shortstops.
OF
Michael Saunders, TOR
Saunders has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games. Not only that, but the additional production now puts his .617 slugging percentage in the top four among outfielders. There are several at his position hitting the ball farther recently, but Saunders’ .319 ISO vs. LHP really places him in the perfect matchup.
Marcell Ozuna, MIA
Miami is implied to score only 3.3 runs, but Ozuna’s peripherals vs. LHP stand out across the board. Just note his .157/.119 wOBA and ISO Differentials, both top-10 among outfielders. His 223-foot batted-ball distance of late is also top-10. What seems the most beneficial is his 11.3 DraftKings points per game in the last month, which trail only Jackie Bradley’s for the highest average among starters.
Paulo Orlando, KC
Like all righty batters in this game, Orlando should benefit from the eight-MPH winds blowing to left field, but only a select few players in this contest have a recent batted-ball distance similar to his (231 feet). His line-drive percentage in the last 15 days is also top-three, trailing those of only Chris Young (who won’t play against a righty) and Michael Taylor (who won’t play over Ben Revere) tonight.
Mookie Betts, BOS
In this slate, only Ezequiel Carrera and Whit Merrifield — both of whom likely won’t even play — have more Pro Trends than Betts. Our Player Models show Betts with negative differentials overall, but his raw slugging percentage vs. RHP (.511) is still better than that of most players. His 42-percent hard-hit rate over his last 11 starts is also top-seven at outfield.
Weather Watch
It wouldn’t be shocking to see White Sox-Royals postponed altogether due to thunderstorms, as it doesn’t look like it’ll let up until well after first pitch. Cardinals-Nationals is the only other game of concern, but at least there are windows for it to be played. Still, I would shy away from rostering Joe Ross or Mike Leake, if only for the bleak outlook.
Good luck!
