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MLB DFS 5/24/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)

Pitchers

David Price, BOS

Stephen Strasburg admittedly has a better matchup. The Mets offense is projected with .267 strikeouts per at-bat; Colorado, .238. But Price remains the better overall package. All his other peripherals, for instance, either mirror or, in some cases, even surpass Strasburg’s. Per our advanced stats, their exit velocities are tied for the lowest-allowed in the last 15 days, but opponents have hit Strasburg 10 percentage points harder than Price in that span. He’s also the clear cut favorite in Vegas tonight, receiving 91 percent of moneyline bets.

The Rockies’ .309 projected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is certainly respectable, but not anything that Price’s 12 Pro Trends can’t overcome. And it’s not often that an ace has a -$2,500 Salary Change in the course of one month, a change that has historically led to a slight +0.29 boost in Plus/Minus.

Justin Verlander, DET

Chris Sale has obviously been lights out as of late, averaging 3.1 more DraftKings points than other pitchers in this slate over the last month. But, as good as Sale has been, Verlander has quietly met salary-based expectations more consistently. Just note his 100 percent Consistency in his last four games. He’s also facing a Phillies team that has produced a bottom-four wOBA versus right-handed pitching (despite recent success against Mike Pelfrey). If looking for value outside of the more renowned starters tonight, you should consider Verlander’s 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.

Julio Teheran, ATL

Teheran isn’t on the same pedestal as others at his position, but he has quietly produced the same Consistency as Strasburg and Sale over the last month. And if that weren’t enough, Milwaukee’s projected strikeouts per at-bat are the highest in this slate. Given the matchup and Teheran’s average 22.6 DraftKings points this month, he is a worthy second pitcher at DK.    

Chris Tillman, BAL

Verlander and Tillman: That’s the list of pitchers who have met salary-based expectations in 100 percent of their starts over the last month. It might seem like Tillman’s matchup is all too tough, but Houston’s .285 projected SO/AB are still bottom-three. Also note the Astros’ projected .276 wOBA, which is the second-lowest tonight. Our Lineups page shows the Astros’ with the third-highest Team Value Rating, but Tillman’s exit velocity of 86 miles per hour remains enticing.

Pitchers to Exploit

Shelby Miller, ARI

Only Nate Karns has allowed a batted-ball distance farther than Miller’s in the last two weeks, but at least Karns has a knack for striking batters out. That’s something Miller (7.45 SO/AB) doesn’t quite offer. Now facing a Pirates offense with a .330 projected wOBA, Miller (and his slate-high exit velocity allowed) should be exploited. 

Kendall Graveman, OAK

Graveman has allowed a batted-ball distance of only 192 feet in the last two weeks, but Seattle is his worst nightmare. Not only is the Mariners’ projected wOBA .024 higher than that of any other offense, but Graveman’s 1.51 home runs per nine innings is bottom-two. He has also received the lowest percentage of moneyline bets tonight.

Jorge De La Rosa, COL

Boston’s initial struggles against southpaws have since evaporated, as the Red Sox’s wOBA against said handedness is now top-two in the majors. De La Rosa also tends to falter on the road, averaging a -0.48 Plus/Minus vs. a +1.27 at home. Over the last year, he has a bottom-four hard-hit percentage.

C

Matt Wieters, BAL

Wieters’ 7.9 DraftKings points this month are top-five among catchers with double-digit starts. In the last two weeks, Fister’s opponents have averaged a batted-ball distance 26 feet shorter than his yearly average, but those offenses (Boston and Cleveland) also recorded at least six hits. Fister’s 1.22 HR/9 are also bottom-six tonight.

Buster Posey, SF

Despite having a -0.050 ISO Differential vs. RHP, Posey still has a top-five recent batted-ball distance at his position. His .343 wOBA is top-six among starters. The 10 MPH winds blowing directly out to centerfield should only benefit him (and all other hitters in AT&T Park tonight).

1B

Jose Abreu, CWS

Josh Tomlin has produced a 75 percent Consistency this year, but he’s also prone to the long ball. Not only are his 1.79 HR/9 allowed in the past year the highest among tonight’s pitchers, but he has also allowed at least one home run in six of seven starts this season. Despite having an 88 MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days, Abreu has a top-10 ISO Differential.

Chris Davis, BAL

Unless Dae-Ho Lee starts (and we currently don’t have him projected to), Davis’ slugging percentage is far and away the highest at first base tonight, having a .090 differential over Edwin Encarnacion’s. Davis’.179 ISO Differential is also top-two, behind only Justin Bour’s (.205). Don’t let Davis’ $500 difference in salary at DK deter you from considering him at both sites.

2B

Daniel Murphy, WSH

Matt Harvey’s line-drive percentage allowed in his last two starts is the highest among pitchers tonight. Murphy’s line-drive rate in that span is only 13 percent, but his batted-ball distance is top-seven at his position. Washington’s implied total has also risen 0.3 runs since initially opening, which could bode will for Murphy’s top-three slugging percentage.

3B

Jung-ho Kang, PIT

Kang’s batted-ball distance in the last 15 days has been 18 feet farther than Danny Valencia’s (and, obviously, the farthest at third base). Kang’s Bargain Rating at DK isn’t all that high, but he leads all third basemen at the platform with 12 Pro Trends. He has also recently averaged a batted-ball distance 54 feet farther than his yearly average.

SS

Manny Machado, BAL

Much like everyone else who bats right-handed in this matchup, Machado is set to benefit from double-digit winds blowing out to left field. Unlike everyone else, though, he has a fly-ball rate above 50 percent. If you’d rather roster him at third base (where he’s additionally eligible at DK), note that Machado’s slugging percentage is higher than both Josh Donaldson’s and Nolan Arenado’s tonight.

Aledmys Diaz, STL

Jason Hammel has limited hitters to a below-average exit velocity recently, but Diaz’s slot at No. 2 in St. Louis’ lineup provides additional opportunities for his .663 slugging percentage to flourish. His .114 ISO Differential is also top-two tonight, behind only Brandon Crawford’s. Diaz, however, has hit the ball two MPH harder than Crawford has in the last 15 days.

OF

Chris Young, BOS

Young’s 13 Pro Trends are the highest among anyone in tonight’s player pool, and over the last week he has a top-three batted-ball distance at 259 feet. Now squaring off against left-handed Jorge De La Rosa, he should be able to put to good use his .536 slugging percentage against said handedness.

J.D. Martinez, DET

Our Player Models show Martinez with negative differentials, but he’s still slugging .523 against right-handed pitching. Furthermore, his batted-ball distance in the last 15 days trails only Miguel Sano’s. Martinez’s 97 MPH exit velocity should find success against Jeremy Hellickson’s 1.51 HR/9 allowed in the past year.

Mookie Betts, BOS

Betts’ recent batted-ball distance is below average, but he has a respectable 39 percent hard-hit rate in that span. His .534 slugging percentage is also notable, as he’ll be leading off against Miller, who has allowed 2.45 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season.

Weather Watch

There’s a chance that Angels-Rangers will be delayed by mid-game thunderstorms, but the area should be clear after that. It shouldn’t be postponed (which keeps all hitters safe). Everyone else is in the clear.

Good luck!

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No related posts.

Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)

Pitchers

David Price, BOS

Stephen Strasburg admittedly has a better matchup. The Mets offense is projected with .267 strikeouts per at-bat; Colorado, .238. But Price remains the better overall package. All his other peripherals, for instance, either mirror or, in some cases, even surpass Strasburg’s. Per our advanced stats, their exit velocities are tied for the lowest-allowed in the last 15 days, but opponents have hit Strasburg 10 percentage points harder than Price in that span. He’s also the clear cut favorite in Vegas tonight, receiving 91 percent of moneyline bets.

The Rockies’ .309 projected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is certainly respectable, but not anything that Price’s 12 Pro Trends can’t overcome. And it’s not often that an ace has a -$2,500 Salary Change in the course of one month, a change that has historically led to a slight +0.29 boost in Plus/Minus.

Justin Verlander, DET

Chris Sale has obviously been lights out as of late, averaging 3.1 more DraftKings points than other pitchers in this slate over the last month. But, as good as Sale has been, Verlander has quietly met salary-based expectations more consistently. Just note his 100 percent Consistency in his last four games. He’s also facing a Phillies team that has produced a bottom-four wOBA versus right-handed pitching (despite recent success against Mike Pelfrey). If looking for value outside of the more renowned starters tonight, you should consider Verlander’s 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.

Julio Teheran, ATL

Teheran isn’t on the same pedestal as others at his position, but he has quietly produced the same Consistency as Strasburg and Sale over the last month. And if that weren’t enough, Milwaukee’s projected strikeouts per at-bat are the highest in this slate. Given the matchup and Teheran’s average 22.6 DraftKings points this month, he is a worthy second pitcher at DK.    

Chris Tillman, BAL

Verlander and Tillman: That’s the list of pitchers who have met salary-based expectations in 100 percent of their starts over the last month. It might seem like Tillman’s matchup is all too tough, but Houston’s .285 projected SO/AB are still bottom-three. Also note the Astros’ projected .276 wOBA, which is the second-lowest tonight. Our Lineups page shows the Astros’ with the third-highest Team Value Rating, but Tillman’s exit velocity of 86 miles per hour remains enticing.

Pitchers to Exploit

Shelby Miller, ARI

Only Nate Karns has allowed a batted-ball distance farther than Miller’s in the last two weeks, but at least Karns has a knack for striking batters out. That’s something Miller (7.45 SO/AB) doesn’t quite offer. Now facing a Pirates offense with a .330 projected wOBA, Miller (and his slate-high exit velocity allowed) should be exploited. 

Kendall Graveman, OAK

Graveman has allowed a batted-ball distance of only 192 feet in the last two weeks, but Seattle is his worst nightmare. Not only is the Mariners’ projected wOBA .024 higher than that of any other offense, but Graveman’s 1.51 home runs per nine innings is bottom-two. He has also received the lowest percentage of moneyline bets tonight.

Jorge De La Rosa, COL

Boston’s initial struggles against southpaws have since evaporated, as the Red Sox’s wOBA against said handedness is now top-two in the majors. De La Rosa also tends to falter on the road, averaging a -0.48 Plus/Minus vs. a +1.27 at home. Over the last year, he has a bottom-four hard-hit percentage.

C

Matt Wieters, BAL

Wieters’ 7.9 DraftKings points this month are top-five among catchers with double-digit starts. In the last two weeks, Fister’s opponents have averaged a batted-ball distance 26 feet shorter than his yearly average, but those offenses (Boston and Cleveland) also recorded at least six hits. Fister’s 1.22 HR/9 are also bottom-six tonight.

Buster Posey, SF

Despite having a -0.050 ISO Differential vs. RHP, Posey still has a top-five recent batted-ball distance at his position. His .343 wOBA is top-six among starters. The 10 MPH winds blowing directly out to centerfield should only benefit him (and all other hitters in AT&T Park tonight).

1B

Jose Abreu, CWS

Josh Tomlin has produced a 75 percent Consistency this year, but he’s also prone to the long ball. Not only are his 1.79 HR/9 allowed in the past year the highest among tonight’s pitchers, but he has also allowed at least one home run in six of seven starts this season. Despite having an 88 MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days, Abreu has a top-10 ISO Differential.

Chris Davis, BAL

Unless Dae-Ho Lee starts (and we currently don’t have him projected to), Davis’ slugging percentage is far and away the highest at first base tonight, having a .090 differential over Edwin Encarnacion’s. Davis’.179 ISO Differential is also top-two, behind only Justin Bour’s (.205). Don’t let Davis’ $500 difference in salary at DK deter you from considering him at both sites.

2B

Daniel Murphy, WSH

Matt Harvey’s line-drive percentage allowed in his last two starts is the highest among pitchers tonight. Murphy’s line-drive rate in that span is only 13 percent, but his batted-ball distance is top-seven at his position. Washington’s implied total has also risen 0.3 runs since initially opening, which could bode will for Murphy’s top-three slugging percentage.

3B

Jung-ho Kang, PIT

Kang’s batted-ball distance in the last 15 days has been 18 feet farther than Danny Valencia’s (and, obviously, the farthest at third base). Kang’s Bargain Rating at DK isn’t all that high, but he leads all third basemen at the platform with 12 Pro Trends. He has also recently averaged a batted-ball distance 54 feet farther than his yearly average.

SS

Manny Machado, BAL

Much like everyone else who bats right-handed in this matchup, Machado is set to benefit from double-digit winds blowing out to left field. Unlike everyone else, though, he has a fly-ball rate above 50 percent. If you’d rather roster him at third base (where he’s additionally eligible at DK), note that Machado’s slugging percentage is higher than both Josh Donaldson’s and Nolan Arenado’s tonight.

Aledmys Diaz, STL

Jason Hammel has limited hitters to a below-average exit velocity recently, but Diaz’s slot at No. 2 in St. Louis’ lineup provides additional opportunities for his .663 slugging percentage to flourish. His .114 ISO Differential is also top-two tonight, behind only Brandon Crawford’s. Diaz, however, has hit the ball two MPH harder than Crawford has in the last 15 days.

OF

Chris Young, BOS

Young’s 13 Pro Trends are the highest among anyone in tonight’s player pool, and over the last week he has a top-three batted-ball distance at 259 feet. Now squaring off against left-handed Jorge De La Rosa, he should be able to put to good use his .536 slugging percentage against said handedness.

J.D. Martinez, DET

Our Player Models show Martinez with negative differentials, but he’s still slugging .523 against right-handed pitching. Furthermore, his batted-ball distance in the last 15 days trails only Miguel Sano’s. Martinez’s 97 MPH exit velocity should find success against Jeremy Hellickson’s 1.51 HR/9 allowed in the past year.

Mookie Betts, BOS

Betts’ recent batted-ball distance is below average, but he has a respectable 39 percent hard-hit rate in that span. His .534 slugging percentage is also notable, as he’ll be leading off against Miller, who has allowed 2.45 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season.

Weather Watch

There’s a chance that Angels-Rangers will be delayed by mid-game thunderstorms, but the area should be clear after that. It shouldn’t be postponed (which keeps all hitters safe). Everyone else is in the clear.

Good luck!

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No related posts.