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MLB DFS 5/20/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)

Pitchers

Aaron Nola, PHI

It’s alright if you didn’t recognize the cover image. I don’t expect you to know (or even care) about anyone in the Phillies rotation. But Nola isn’t just a “dumpster dive” or contrarian option. He’s arguably similar to Jake Arrieta, in that they both have 80 percent Consistency over their last five starts. The Braves have only an average strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, but they’re still the only team with an Isolated Power (ISO) below .100. Their implied total has also sunk 0.2 runs since initially opening.

Per our advanced stats, Nola excels with a recent exit velocity of 85 miles per hour and a 175-foot batted-ball distance allowed. Roster Nola at FanDuel, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating, and then run away laughing into the night.

Steven Matz, NYM

Matz will definitely be rostered in more lineups than Nola tonight (which makes the latter an even stronger option), but his peripherals are similar to Nola’s. Both are projected to allow only 3.1 runs, and Matz has also exceeded salary-based expectations in five consecutive performances:

 

He’s as viable of a cash option as anyone tonight, especially since he has received the highest percentage of moneyline bets in Vegas.

Gerritt Cole, PIT

Despite facing the Rockies, Cole is actually slated as the highest favorite (-205) of the evening, which isn’t entirely surprising, given that he has 12 Pro Trends. His ownership percentage is hard to gauge, but he has Upside, with 8.60 strikeouts per nine innings. That he trails only Arrieta with his 0.59 home runs allowed per nine innings is simply icing on the cake.

Pitchers to Exploit

Wily Peralta, MIL

It doesn’t help that he’s slated to face Steven Matz, but Peralta has still notably received the lowest percentage of moneyline bets tonight. The Mets, who have a top-three ISO vs. RHP, also have a top-five projected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). Whether it’s Curtis Granderson, David Wright, Michael Conforto, or Yoenis Cespedes who gets to him — and all of those guys have top-10 Ratings at their respective positions in our Bales Model — Peralta’s 1.2 HR/9 aren’t making it out of Citi Field alive.

Eddie Butler, COL

Jon Gray got destroyed last night, and he at least has (had?) dazzling splits away from Coors Field. Butler has been bad no matter where he has pitched, allowing both lefties and righties to slug at least .415 against him this season. Now facing a Pirates offense with a top-four wOBA vs. RHP, Butler is in a bad spot. Note that his 1.84 HR/9 over the last year are the highest among pitchers tonight.

Matt Wisler, ATL

Wisler isn’t projected to give up a lot of runs — the Phillies have an implied total of four — but a select few batters in Philadelphia’s lineup have substantial enough splits to take advantage of Wisler’s slate-high batted-ball distance allowed. Odubel Herrera (questionable), Ryan Howard, and even Cameron Rupp are in a terrific position to flourish tonight.

C

Jason Castro, HOU

Castro might bat in the second half of the order, so he shouldn’t be high-rostered, but Houston is still projected to score the most runs in the slate. Given his top-three exit velocity and hard-hit percentage among catchers over the last two weeks — and his double-digit Pro Trends — he is arguably the strongest cash option among catchers tonight.

1B

Ryan Zimmerman, WAS

Zimmerman’s recent batted-ball distance is only average, but he’s still in an immaculate spot tonight. After all, both his ISO and slugging percentage are the highest among first basemen. With a .194 ISO Differential, Zimmerman should send Justin Nicolino into hiding, given that he’s the lowest-Rated pitcher in our Bales Model.

Justin Bour, MIA

Bour has quietly produced a top-10 ISO vs. RHP this season. Tanner Roark has been good over the last two weeks, tying Nola in exit velocity allowed, but Bour’s 224-foot batted-ball distance is still sufficient enough to give him a chance to prosper (even if he’s the only one in Miami who does).

2B

Robinson Cano, SEA

Look all you want, but there’s legitimately no reason to fade Cano in cash games. Not only is his slugging percentage .034 higher than anyone else’s at second base, but he also has a top-three batted-ball distance as of late. Additionally, Cano is discounted on FD, with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.

3B

David Wright, NYM

Wright’s batted-ball distance in the last 15 days is only one foot shorter than Danny Valencia’s and farther than anyone else’s on the Mets. He has slightly negative Differentials vs. RHP, but his 93 percent Bargain Rating at FD mitigates his downside.

Jung-ho Kang, PIT

Now that Kang has settled in at cleanup for the Pirates, his .212 ISO is a strong option each and every night. He has also produced a top-five slugging percentage among third basemen. Kang is just one of many players for Pittsburgh who are sure to have a field day with Eddie Butler’s slate-high HR/9.

SS

Carlos Correa, HOU

You have to pick and choose your spots when paying up for Correa, and tonight is one of those spots. He’s the only shortstop with double-digit Pro Trends, and for some reason he has a 91 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. Only Corey Seager, Trevor Story, and Troy Tulowitzki have hit the ball farther over the last 15 days, and none of them has a better matchup tonight.

OF

Curtis Granderson, NYM

As mentioned earlier, the top half of the Mets lineup is in play tonight, and Granderson should be prioritized since he’s the only one who’s discounted. Note his 93 percent Bargain Rating at FD. His exit velocity in the last 15 days is also the highest among New York’s outfielders.

Nomar Mazara, TEX

For whatever reason, Mazara has experienced a -$700 Salary Change since his last outing. Out of the teams in this matchup, Houston might be implied to score the most runs tonight, but Texas is still projected with 4.2 and Mazara is slugging .529 vs. RHP. Take advantage of this inexplicable savings while you can.

Corey Dickerson, TB

The Rays notably strike out in 25.4 percent of their at-bats vs. RHP, but Dickerson’s splits are all too good to pass on. His .230/.273 wOBA and ISO Differential, for instance, are top-two among outfielders tonight. Anibal Sanchez’s 1.79 HR/9 are likely to be exploited.

Mark Trumbo, BAL

Prior to his last start against Seattle, Hector Santiago hadn’t made it out of the fifth inning without allowing at least seven hits and three runs. Baltimore is projected to post only 3.8 runs tonight, but the Orioles are still receiving a higher percentage of moneyline bets. Despite his top-six batted-ball distance in the last 15 days, Trumbo will likely not be highly owned. That makes him an even better option.

Weather Watch

Mariners-Reds is expecting light rain at some point this afternoon, but it shouldn’t threaten gameplay. Have exposure toward all other games with confidence.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)

Pitchers

Aaron Nola, PHI

It’s alright if you didn’t recognize the cover image. I don’t expect you to know (or even care) about anyone in the Phillies rotation. But Nola isn’t just a “dumpster dive” or contrarian option. He’s arguably similar to Jake Arrieta, in that they both have 80 percent Consistency over their last five starts. The Braves have only an average strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, but they’re still the only team with an Isolated Power (ISO) below .100. Their implied total has also sunk 0.2 runs since initially opening.

Per our advanced stats, Nola excels with a recent exit velocity of 85 miles per hour and a 175-foot batted-ball distance allowed. Roster Nola at FanDuel, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating, and then run away laughing into the night.

Steven Matz, NYM

Matz will definitely be rostered in more lineups than Nola tonight (which makes the latter an even stronger option), but his peripherals are similar to Nola’s. Both are projected to allow only 3.1 runs, and Matz has also exceeded salary-based expectations in five consecutive performances:

 

He’s as viable of a cash option as anyone tonight, especially since he has received the highest percentage of moneyline bets in Vegas.

Gerritt Cole, PIT

Despite facing the Rockies, Cole is actually slated as the highest favorite (-205) of the evening, which isn’t entirely surprising, given that he has 12 Pro Trends. His ownership percentage is hard to gauge, but he has Upside, with 8.60 strikeouts per nine innings. That he trails only Arrieta with his 0.59 home runs allowed per nine innings is simply icing on the cake.

Pitchers to Exploit

Wily Peralta, MIL

It doesn’t help that he’s slated to face Steven Matz, but Peralta has still notably received the lowest percentage of moneyline bets tonight. The Mets, who have a top-three ISO vs. RHP, also have a top-five projected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). Whether it’s Curtis Granderson, David Wright, Michael Conforto, or Yoenis Cespedes who gets to him — and all of those guys have top-10 Ratings at their respective positions in our Bales Model — Peralta’s 1.2 HR/9 aren’t making it out of Citi Field alive.

Eddie Butler, COL

Jon Gray got destroyed last night, and he at least has (had?) dazzling splits away from Coors Field. Butler has been bad no matter where he has pitched, allowing both lefties and righties to slug at least .415 against him this season. Now facing a Pirates offense with a top-four wOBA vs. RHP, Butler is in a bad spot. Note that his 1.84 HR/9 over the last year are the highest among pitchers tonight.

Matt Wisler, ATL

Wisler isn’t projected to give up a lot of runs — the Phillies have an implied total of four — but a select few batters in Philadelphia’s lineup have substantial enough splits to take advantage of Wisler’s slate-high batted-ball distance allowed. Odubel Herrera (questionable), Ryan Howard, and even Cameron Rupp are in a terrific position to flourish tonight.

C

Jason Castro, HOU

Castro might bat in the second half of the order, so he shouldn’t be high-rostered, but Houston is still projected to score the most runs in the slate. Given his top-three exit velocity and hard-hit percentage among catchers over the last two weeks — and his double-digit Pro Trends — he is arguably the strongest cash option among catchers tonight.

1B

Ryan Zimmerman, WAS

Zimmerman’s recent batted-ball distance is only average, but he’s still in an immaculate spot tonight. After all, both his ISO and slugging percentage are the highest among first basemen. With a .194 ISO Differential, Zimmerman should send Justin Nicolino into hiding, given that he’s the lowest-Rated pitcher in our Bales Model.

Justin Bour, MIA

Bour has quietly produced a top-10 ISO vs. RHP this season. Tanner Roark has been good over the last two weeks, tying Nola in exit velocity allowed, but Bour’s 224-foot batted-ball distance is still sufficient enough to give him a chance to prosper (even if he’s the only one in Miami who does).

2B

Robinson Cano, SEA

Look all you want, but there’s legitimately no reason to fade Cano in cash games. Not only is his slugging percentage .034 higher than anyone else’s at second base, but he also has a top-three batted-ball distance as of late. Additionally, Cano is discounted on FD, with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.

3B

David Wright, NYM

Wright’s batted-ball distance in the last 15 days is only one foot shorter than Danny Valencia’s and farther than anyone else’s on the Mets. He has slightly negative Differentials vs. RHP, but his 93 percent Bargain Rating at FD mitigates his downside.

Jung-ho Kang, PIT

Now that Kang has settled in at cleanup for the Pirates, his .212 ISO is a strong option each and every night. He has also produced a top-five slugging percentage among third basemen. Kang is just one of many players for Pittsburgh who are sure to have a field day with Eddie Butler’s slate-high HR/9.

SS

Carlos Correa, HOU

You have to pick and choose your spots when paying up for Correa, and tonight is one of those spots. He’s the only shortstop with double-digit Pro Trends, and for some reason he has a 91 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. Only Corey Seager, Trevor Story, and Troy Tulowitzki have hit the ball farther over the last 15 days, and none of them has a better matchup tonight.

OF

Curtis Granderson, NYM

As mentioned earlier, the top half of the Mets lineup is in play tonight, and Granderson should be prioritized since he’s the only one who’s discounted. Note his 93 percent Bargain Rating at FD. His exit velocity in the last 15 days is also the highest among New York’s outfielders.

Nomar Mazara, TEX

For whatever reason, Mazara has experienced a -$700 Salary Change since his last outing. Out of the teams in this matchup, Houston might be implied to score the most runs tonight, but Texas is still projected with 4.2 and Mazara is slugging .529 vs. RHP. Take advantage of this inexplicable savings while you can.

Corey Dickerson, TB

The Rays notably strike out in 25.4 percent of their at-bats vs. RHP, but Dickerson’s splits are all too good to pass on. His .230/.273 wOBA and ISO Differential, for instance, are top-two among outfielders tonight. Anibal Sanchez’s 1.79 HR/9 are likely to be exploited.

Mark Trumbo, BAL

Prior to his last start against Seattle, Hector Santiago hadn’t made it out of the fifth inning without allowing at least seven hits and three runs. Baltimore is projected to post only 3.8 runs tonight, but the Orioles are still receiving a higher percentage of moneyline bets. Despite his top-six batted-ball distance in the last 15 days, Trumbo will likely not be highly owned. That makes him an even better option.

Weather Watch

Mariners-Reds is expecting light rain at some point this afternoon, but it shouldn’t threaten gameplay. Have exposure toward all other games with confidence.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.