Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard.)
Pitchers
Francisco Liriano, PIT
Just locking Liriano into your lineups today won’t do it. It’ll take a much more unique combination to take down tournaments given the well-known security he provides. The Braves, after all, are far and away the worst offense versus left-handed pitching. Not only do they strikeout in 25.6 percent of their at-bats against said handedness, but their Isolated Power (ISO) and Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) are -0.013 and -0.016 worse than those of the second-worst team. And don’t overthink it just because the advanced stats in our Player Models show Liriano with a 37-foot Batted-Ball Distance Differential over the last two weeks: Those two starts came against the Cubs and Cardinals.
Johnny Cueto, SF
Hopefully recency bias directs more DFS players toward Drew Pomeranz than Cueto, who is the better play of the two (and not just because he’s receiving 77 percent of the moneyline bets in Vegas). The Padres are basically the Braves versus right-handed pitching, as their .277 wOBA is the lowest in the majors. They also strike out against righties at a top-four rate. Liriano remains the more consistent option, but Cueto isn’t too far behind.
Pitchers to Exploit
Chris Rusin, COL
No one can confidently predict which players Mike Matheny will actually start on any given day, but the wOBA for the current projected Cardinals lineup has a .027 differential over any other team. Rusin’s hard-hit percentage allowed in his last two starts is also bottom-three tonight. Don’t worry about his 186-foot batted-ball distance allowed in that span: The opposing offenses still accrued at least 10 hits in each of those starts.
Shelby Miller, ARI
Even a putrid Yankees offense should be able to find success against Miller, who has a 225-foot batted-ball distance allowed. The first five hitters in the Yankees lineup — Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira, and Brian McCann — all have a positive ISO Differential and at least five Pro Trends in the matchup. The Yankees are also projected to score only 0.1 runs fewer than the Cubs, who will be the more popular stack between the two teams in tournaments.
Adam Wainwright, STL
What I typically look for first in tournaments is an elite stack that you can obtain under the radar (like Toronto last night), which is what Colorado could ultimately be in this slate. Wainwright is projected to allow only 3.6 runs, but he has a slate-high line-drive percentage allowed. And it’s not as if he has suddenly turned a corner and is now dominating opponents:
Consider tonight a rare opportunity to get Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Carlos Gonzalez with minimal ownership.
C
Chris Herrmann, ARI
Herrmann doesn’t need to bat second again to be effective. His wOBA and ISO Differentials are still .064/.067 greater than those of any other catcher. He has also averaged a 257-foot batted-ball distance in the past week, which is top-three at his position. If he starts, lock him in.
Brian McCann, NYY
McCann’s batted-ball distance pales in comparison to those of others at his position, but he’s still the strongest option outside of Herrmann. His .221 ISO is top-six, and against Miller he is an integral part of any Yankees stack.
1B
Mike Napoli, CLE
Brandon Finnegan’s 1.68 home runs per nine innings in the last year are the highest among pitchers tonight, and Napoli’s .575 slugging percentage against southpaws is top-five at his position. With a 240-foot batted-ball distance, he is arguably the strongest cash play at first base.
2B
Chase Utley, LAD
Nick Tropeano has an uncanny knack to strike batters out (as shown by his 9.81 strikeouts per nine innings), but he has still been exploited by better offenses. Note his slate-high hard-hit percentage allowed in his last two starts. As long as Utley is leading off, he (and his 50 percent hard-hit percentage) should be able to exploit Tropeano tonight.
3B
Kris Bryant, CHC
Bryant screams cash. You don’t even need to know his advanced stats. That he’s batting third for a team projected to score 5.0 runs is enough. Still, Jimmy Nelson’s bottom-three hard-hit percentage allowed now has to avoid Bryant’s .487 slugging.
SS
Addison Russell, CHC
If there were ever a way to have unique exposure to the Cubs, it’s via Russell. And you wouldn’t be paying for him simply for the sake of creating a contrarian stack. He quietly has a top-six batted-ball distance among shortstops. If he receives a bump up to the No. 6 spot in the batting order for the second straight night, then that will just be a bonus.
OF
Matt Joyce, PIT
As long as Joyce continues hitting (and starting) vs. RHP, he’s a play each and every night. Note his 263-foot batted-ball distance in the past week. His .179 ISO Differential puts him in a great position to flourish against Julio Teheran, whose velocity has decreased 1.1 miles per hour in his last two starts.
Brett Gardner, NYY
Gardner isn’t leading off, but I’d still prioritize him over Jacoby Ellsbury. Not only is Gardner’s batted-ball distance in the last two weeks 15 feet farther than Ellsbury’s, but his slugging is .068 higher as well. Also, note that Garner’s line-drive percentage in that span is 11 percentage points higher.
Charlie Blackmon, COL
As mentioned earlier, Wainwright’s line-drive percentage in the last two weeks is the highest among pitchers tonight. Coincidentally, Blackmon has a top-10 line-drive percentage. With a 242-foot batted-ball distance in that span, he’s a viable option even outside of any Rockies stack.
Weather Watch
None to be concerned about today.
Good luck!
