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Pitchers

Madison Bumgarner, SF

With nearly every team deploying its ace tonight, selecting the right pitcher is more about not losing than winning. And one of the surer options remains Bumgarner, who is receiving 84 percent of moneyline bets in Vegas. More money has admittedly come in on Kyle Hendricks, but his 8.58 strikeouts per nine innings are still 1.86 fewer than Bumgarner’s. One of only two pitchers projected to allow fewer than three runs, the San Fran ace faces off against San Diego, which strikes out vs. left-handed pitchers in just over 25 percent of its at-bats.

Clayton Kershaw, LAD

If you were to bet $100 on Kershaw tonight, you would receive only $34 in return if you won (hence his -294 moneyline). Still, he has received 79 percent of the bets in Vegas. The Angels have the lowest strikeout rate against lefties in the majors, but Kershaw’s 14 Pro Trends make him a lock for cash games. After all, pitchers with double-digit Pro Trends and salaries greater than $13,000 have historically had a Plus/Minus value of +6.18.

Jaime Garcia, STL

Garcia has all the makings of an elite tournament play. Not only is he facing a Rockies offense that DFS players would rather stack than target, but he has a top-two batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks. Also note that his exit velocity allowed of 86 miles per hour in that timespan is top-three (per our advanced stats). Additionally, the Rockies have a lackluster -3.47 Plus/Minus against lefties away from Coors Field.

Juan Nicasio, PIT

Nicasio is one of only three pitchers to induce a hard-hit percentage lower than 20 percent in the last two weeks. Furthermore, the Braves have recorded the fewest hard hits against right-handed pitchers this season. Given that Atlanta’s Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and ISO are also the worst against said handedness, Nicasio’s is a valuable second pitcher on DraftKings, where he has an 81 percent Bargain Rating.

Marcus Stroman, TOR

Yes, a fifth suggestion for maybe the first time ever. But it’s warranted. Stroman’s 6.45 SO/9 are rather poor, but he’ll be helped by the Rays’ league-leading 26.4 percent strikeout rate vs. RHP. He has also induced the highest ground-ball percentage in the last two weeks. Furthermore, while the average velocity on his changeup has plummeted, it has quietly produced a swinging-strike rate that is 8.8 percentage points higher. And Tampa Bay? Well, unfortunately for the Rays, their swinging-strike rate is 1.2 percentage points higher than that of any other offense.

Pitchers to Exploit

Phil Hughes, MIN

If only Detroit hadn’t posted 10 runs on the Twins just yesterday. Now they’ll likely be even higher-owned than they initially would’ve been. Still, Hughes’ slate-worst batted-ball distance and exit velocity allowed recently shouldn’t be ignored. Find unique exposure elsewhere rather than fading the Chalk of Chalks (which I’ve heard is the working title for the sixth Game of Thrones book).

Mike Pelfrey, DET

Pelfrey’s exit velocity allowed lately is actually a respectable 89 MPH, but that doesn’t mean that he has suddenly become a major league pitcher overnight. Over the last two weeks, his velocity has trailed his yearly average by 2.5 MPH. And now facing the Twins, Pelfrey somehow has to pitch around Byung-Ho Park and Miguel Sano, both of whom have a batted-ball distance in the top seven at their respective positions. Rather than the Tigers tagging Hughes and having a mid-celebratory cigarette, expect fireworks from both sides.

Chase Anderson, MIL

If it weren’t for Hughes, Anderson’s batted-ball distance allowed would be the worst in the slate. If it weren’t for Chris Rusin, Anderson’s hard-hit percentage allowed would be the worst in the slate. No matter: He has still allowed the most runs. And if the Cubs somehow struggle to make contact then their league-high 12.8 percent walk rate vs. RHP should make up for it. After all, Anderson’s 1.46 WHIP is one of the highest tonight. However you look at it, there will be blood.

C

Yasmani Grandal, LAD

Unless Chris Herrmann starts, it’s a terrible night at catcher. At least Grandal is expected to bat in the middle of the lineup and against Jered Weaver, who is a bottom-four pitcher in the slate according to his home runs per nine innings and batted-ball distance allowed.

1B

Freddie Freeman, ATL

If you don’t roster opposing pitcher Nicasio, then you should feel free to use Freeman. His .154 ISO Differential is quietly ranked top-five among first basemen. The Braves are projected to score only 3.2 runs, but an entire stack of their team isn’t required. Getting exposure to Freeman and his exit velocity of 93 MPH is sufficient.

Miguel Cabrera DET

Despite the wind blowing toward home plate at 9 MPH, there’s zero chance that I will fade Cabrera tonight. There are those at his position hitting the ball much farther in the last 15 days, but his .394 wOBA remains top-three. He has also owned Hughes throughout his career, recording six home runs in 18 hits against him.

2B

Jean Segura, ARI

I highlighted Segura in yesterday’s Slate Breakdown, and not enough has changed from yesterday to today to make me not do it again. Note Michael Pineda’s 1.69 HR/9, which equal Hughes’ mark over the last year.

Jose Altuve, HOU

Carlos Rodon has impressively limited opponents to a single-digit line-drive percentage over his last two starts. Even so, Altuve’s .566 slugging percentage is the highest among second basemen. With a top-five batted-ball distance, he should have no trouble producing against Rodon, who has allowed 0.80 more HR/9 to right-handed (as opposed to left-handed) batters this season.

3B

Todd Frazier, CWS

Dallas Keuchel has allowed an immaculate 174-foot batted-ball distance lately, but he has also produced double-digit DraftKings points in only one of his last five starts. Frazier’s .552 slugging percentage trails only Nolan Arenado’s (among starters) tonight. His .306 ISO is the highest at the position. And he’s likely to be rostered in very few lineups.

Kris Bryant, CHC

Bryant is arguably the strongest cash option at third base tonight. He can also be used as an outfielder at DraftKings, but his value remains best at FanDuel, where he has a 70 percent Bargain Rating. Note that his 233-foot batted-ball distance ranks in the top 10 at third base, whereas it fails to make the cut among outfielders.

SS

Corey Seager, LAD

Trevor Story vs. LHP will be a popular option tonight, but note that over the last 12 days Seager trails Story in batted-ball distance by only three feet. Seager also has a slightly higher exit velocity and hard-hit percentage in that span.

OF

Miguel Sano, MIN

Sano isn’t a unique option by any means, but his batted-ball distance is in the top three among outfielders. He’ll be a popular pick for all DFS players who stack against Pelfrey, but his Plus/Minus results in the last five days alone warrant it:

 

Matt Joyce, PIT

With Starling Marte absent for the next few days, I assume that Joyce will be in Pittsburgh’s lineup. Note his dazzling .147/.162 wOBA and ISO Differentials. Aaron Blair is also notably the lowest-rated pitcher in our Bales Model tonight.

George Springer, HOU

Also benefitting from Carlos Rodon’s aforementioned blemishes is Springer, whose batted-ball distance is top-five tonight. His hard-hit percentage in the last two weeks also leads other notable options, such as Sano, Brandon Drury, and even Mike Trout. If paying for Altuve, you should consider paying for Springer as well.

Weather Watch

Marlins-Phillies shouldn’t be threatened by pouring rain until well into first pitch. Mariners-Orioles, however, is likely to see inclement weather throughout the evening. Expect it to be postponed earlier in the day rather than later.

Good luck!