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MLB DFS 5/16/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Kenta Maeda, LAD

Despite producing only 3.85 DraftKings points in his last start, Maeda is arguably the top option tonight. The Angels don’t strike out much versus right-handed pitching, but Maeda is projected to allow the fewest runs in the slate. Forget about his recent performance and instead gravitate confidently toward his -178 moneyline, which is also the highest among pitchers.

Jon Niese, PIT

Niese admittedly doesn’t do anything especially well, but he’s facing Atlanta. The Braves’ Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Isolated Power (ISO), after all, are by far the worst in the league against left-handed pitchers. In the top third of their order, they are also projected to deploy three left-handed batters, against which Niese averaged a higher strikeout percentage just last season. His 84 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings easily solidifies him as the cheaper option you want as your second pitcher there.

Pitchers to Exploit

Sean Manaea, OAK

Texas’ ISO versus left-handed pitching is borderline top-20, but Manaea’s slate-high 2.95 home runs per nine innings should make up for that. The Rangers have also struck out in only 20.4 percent of their at-bats against said handedness. As Manaea has failed to allow fewer than four runs in all three of his starts this season, he (and not Derek Holland) is the top pitcher to target in this matchup. Of course, you could also just target both of them.

Jose Berrios, MIN

Berrios’ 12.12 strikeouts per nine innings are far and away the highest among pitchers tonight, but he has yet to last long enough to showcase his strikeout prowess. After all, if it weren’t for Manaea, Berrios’ 2.55 HR/9 would easily be the highest allowed in this slate. Hope that Detroit’s horrid recent play limits the percentage of lineups in which the Tigers are rostered. That would allow Berrios’ 226-foot batted-ball distance allowed to be exploited with ease.

C

Brian McCann, NYY

McCann has better splits vs. RHP, but Robbie Ray’s hard-hit percentage is still eight percentage points higher than what any other pitcher has permitted, and he has a bottom-four batted-ball distance (per our advanced stats). Between the matchup and park, he’s arguably the only viable cash option at catcher tonight.

1B

Byung-Ho Park, MIN

Hitters have averaged a lowly exit velocity of 88 miles per hour against Jordan Zimmerman as of late, but Park’s peripherals still suggest that he can flourish. Note that his slugging percentage, ISO Differential, batted-ball distance, and exit velocity are all in the top three at first base. Stacking the middle of the Twins lineup (or at least those who bat right-handed) is a viable strategy in tournaments, given that the wind is blowing out to left field at 10 MPH.

Steve Pearce, TB

Pearce will probably be the lowest-rostered of the Rays’ top-four hitters, a fact that should come in handy if you’re stacking them. Our Player Models show him with only a slight ISO Differential, but he has a slate-high Park Factor. With a top-four ISO at first base, Pearce, if anything, is a confident contrarian option for tournaments.

2B

Jean Segura, ARI

Over the last week, Segura’s batted-ball distance has surpassed his yearly average by 28 feet. Chad Green will be making his first major league start, and it doesn’t help (him) that he’s pitching at Chase Field (or, as Mitch Block likes to call it, Coors Lite). With a top-10 ISO Differential at second base, Segura is one of many Diamondbacks who should produce today.

3B

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Donaldson is typically a strong play anytime he faces a lefty. Why? Because his slugging percentage is a whopping .101 higher than that of any other third baseman in tonight’s slate. Furthermore, his ISO is also .079 higher than anyone else’s at the position. Hopefully his matchup against Drew Smyly will keep his lineup percentage lower than it normally is.

Evan Longoria, TB

If you want to fade Donaldson, then look no further than Longoria. Not only is his 15-day batted-ball distance better than Donaldson’s by 17 feet, but Longoria’s exit velocity over that timeframe is also the best among third basemen. Although he has the lowest line-drive percentage allowed as of late, J.A. Happ has notably allowed 0.73 more HR/9 to right-handed (as opposed to left-handed) batters in the last year.

Maikel Franco, PHI

And if you want to pivot away from both Donaldson and Longoria,  then Franco is a guy to consider. His batted-ball distance trails Longoria’s by only two feet in the last 10 days, and he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. He’s probably the best option among the trio for tournaments, too, since many DFSers will likely roster opposing pitcher Adam Conley, who has a bottom-three batted-ball distance allowed in his last two starts.

SS

Corey Seager, LAD

Opposing pitcher Matt Shoemaker isn’t very good:

 

 

That’s really all the analysis that’s needed.

Jung-Ho Kang, PIT

Williams Perez isn’t in the Exploit portion of the breakdown, but he’s the lowest-rated pitcher in our Bales Model. With a plethora of confident options at third base, I’m much more inclined to mosey on over to DK and roster Kang at shortstop, since he’s strictly a third baseman at FD. Note his top-three batted-ball distance and ISO among shortstops, whereas both barely make the cut among the top 10 at third base.

OF

Justin Upton, DET

There are outfielders hitting the ball harder than Upton, but he still has top-eight wOBA and ISO Differentials. I’m not sure how many DFS players will actually stack the Tigers, but Upton is a contrarian option in a Tigers stack.

Brandon Guyer, TB

Not only has Guyer averaged a 253-foot batted-ball distance in the last week, but he has also notably shown more power vs. LHP over the last year. He’ll be a popular choice if he leads off again, but his top-seven hard-hit percentage makes him worth rostering regardless of where he bats in the order.

Ian Desmond, TEX

If Desmond hits second for the Rangers (as projected), he’ll be as strong of an option as anyone in their lineup. [Editor’s Note: Except for Rougned Odor, although Daigle is probably talking about a different type of strength.]

Desmond’s recent batted-ball distance might be subpar, but among outfielders tonight he trails only Michael Saunders, Mike Trout, Ezequiel Carrera, and Giancarlo Stanton in slugging percentage vs. LHP. Right-handed batters have also averaged a .494 slugging differential in Manaea’s three starts this season.

Weather Watch

Look at any weather report and you’ll notice that Red Sox-Royals might as well construct an ark. At least it’s likely to be cancelled earlier in the day rather than minutes before first pitch. Rays-Blue Jays is also expecting inclement conditions, but the roof in Toronto can easily be closed.

Good luck!

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No related posts.

Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Kenta Maeda, LAD

Despite producing only 3.85 DraftKings points in his last start, Maeda is arguably the top option tonight. The Angels don’t strike out much versus right-handed pitching, but Maeda is projected to allow the fewest runs in the slate. Forget about his recent performance and instead gravitate confidently toward his -178 moneyline, which is also the highest among pitchers.

Jon Niese, PIT

Niese admittedly doesn’t do anything especially well, but he’s facing Atlanta. The Braves’ Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Isolated Power (ISO), after all, are by far the worst in the league against left-handed pitchers. In the top third of their order, they are also projected to deploy three left-handed batters, against which Niese averaged a higher strikeout percentage just last season. His 84 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings easily solidifies him as the cheaper option you want as your second pitcher there.

Pitchers to Exploit

Sean Manaea, OAK

Texas’ ISO versus left-handed pitching is borderline top-20, but Manaea’s slate-high 2.95 home runs per nine innings should make up for that. The Rangers have also struck out in only 20.4 percent of their at-bats against said handedness. As Manaea has failed to allow fewer than four runs in all three of his starts this season, he (and not Derek Holland) is the top pitcher to target in this matchup. Of course, you could also just target both of them.

Jose Berrios, MIN

Berrios’ 12.12 strikeouts per nine innings are far and away the highest among pitchers tonight, but he has yet to last long enough to showcase his strikeout prowess. After all, if it weren’t for Manaea, Berrios’ 2.55 HR/9 would easily be the highest allowed in this slate. Hope that Detroit’s horrid recent play limits the percentage of lineups in which the Tigers are rostered. That would allow Berrios’ 226-foot batted-ball distance allowed to be exploited with ease.

C

Brian McCann, NYY

McCann has better splits vs. RHP, but Robbie Ray’s hard-hit percentage is still eight percentage points higher than what any other pitcher has permitted, and he has a bottom-four batted-ball distance (per our advanced stats). Between the matchup and park, he’s arguably the only viable cash option at catcher tonight.

1B

Byung-Ho Park, MIN

Hitters have averaged a lowly exit velocity of 88 miles per hour against Jordan Zimmerman as of late, but Park’s peripherals still suggest that he can flourish. Note that his slugging percentage, ISO Differential, batted-ball distance, and exit velocity are all in the top three at first base. Stacking the middle of the Twins lineup (or at least those who bat right-handed) is a viable strategy in tournaments, given that the wind is blowing out to left field at 10 MPH.

Steve Pearce, TB

Pearce will probably be the lowest-rostered of the Rays’ top-four hitters, a fact that should come in handy if you’re stacking them. Our Player Models show him with only a slight ISO Differential, but he has a slate-high Park Factor. With a top-four ISO at first base, Pearce, if anything, is a confident contrarian option for tournaments.

2B

Jean Segura, ARI

Over the last week, Segura’s batted-ball distance has surpassed his yearly average by 28 feet. Chad Green will be making his first major league start, and it doesn’t help (him) that he’s pitching at Chase Field (or, as Mitch Block likes to call it, Coors Lite). With a top-10 ISO Differential at second base, Segura is one of many Diamondbacks who should produce today.

3B

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Donaldson is typically a strong play anytime he faces a lefty. Why? Because his slugging percentage is a whopping .101 higher than that of any other third baseman in tonight’s slate. Furthermore, his ISO is also .079 higher than anyone else’s at the position. Hopefully his matchup against Drew Smyly will keep his lineup percentage lower than it normally is.

Evan Longoria, TB

If you want to fade Donaldson, then look no further than Longoria. Not only is his 15-day batted-ball distance better than Donaldson’s by 17 feet, but Longoria’s exit velocity over that timeframe is also the best among third basemen. Although he has the lowest line-drive percentage allowed as of late, J.A. Happ has notably allowed 0.73 more HR/9 to right-handed (as opposed to left-handed) batters in the last year.

Maikel Franco, PHI

And if you want to pivot away from both Donaldson and Longoria,  then Franco is a guy to consider. His batted-ball distance trails Longoria’s by only two feet in the last 10 days, and he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. He’s probably the best option among the trio for tournaments, too, since many DFSers will likely roster opposing pitcher Adam Conley, who has a bottom-three batted-ball distance allowed in his last two starts.

SS

Corey Seager, LAD

Opposing pitcher Matt Shoemaker isn’t very good:

 

 

That’s really all the analysis that’s needed.

Jung-Ho Kang, PIT

Williams Perez isn’t in the Exploit portion of the breakdown, but he’s the lowest-rated pitcher in our Bales Model. With a plethora of confident options at third base, I’m much more inclined to mosey on over to DK and roster Kang at shortstop, since he’s strictly a third baseman at FD. Note his top-three batted-ball distance and ISO among shortstops, whereas both barely make the cut among the top 10 at third base.

OF

Justin Upton, DET

There are outfielders hitting the ball harder than Upton, but he still has top-eight wOBA and ISO Differentials. I’m not sure how many DFS players will actually stack the Tigers, but Upton is a contrarian option in a Tigers stack.

Brandon Guyer, TB

Not only has Guyer averaged a 253-foot batted-ball distance in the last week, but he has also notably shown more power vs. LHP over the last year. He’ll be a popular choice if he leads off again, but his top-seven hard-hit percentage makes him worth rostering regardless of where he bats in the order.

Ian Desmond, TEX

If Desmond hits second for the Rangers (as projected), he’ll be as strong of an option as anyone in their lineup. [Editor’s Note: Except for Rougned Odor, although Daigle is probably talking about a different type of strength.]

Desmond’s recent batted-ball distance might be subpar, but among outfielders tonight he trails only Michael Saunders, Mike Trout, Ezequiel Carrera, and Giancarlo Stanton in slugging percentage vs. LHP. Right-handed batters have also averaged a .494 slugging differential in Manaea’s three starts this season.

Weather Watch

Look at any weather report and you’ll notice that Red Sox-Royals might as well construct an ark. At least it’s likely to be cancelled earlier in the day rather than minutes before first pitch. Rays-Blue Jays is also expecting inclement conditions, but the roof in Toronto can easily be closed.

Good luck!

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No related posts.