Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, LAD

While the Mets exploit right-handed pitchers, they have a bottom-five strikeout percentage against lefties. That’s only one of the reasons why Kershaw is projected to allow 0.7 runs fewer than any pitcher in the slate. Also, note that his 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings are 1.3 more than anyone else’s. He’s the obvious choice in cash games for obvious reasons.

Vincent Velasquez, PHI

Velasquez is typically a strong option anyway, but he’s now facing a Braves offense with the lowest Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against right-handed pitching. They’re also the only team with an Isolated Power (ISO) lower than .100. Although David Price and Kershaw both have higher SO/9s, Velasquez is still an elite tournament option. He’ll likely be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, but (per our advanced stats) his exit velocity allowed in the last 15 days is actually the same as Kershaw’s, so he’s probably worth rostering.

Pitchers to Exploit

Mike Pelfrey, DET

I haven’t named this one yet, but here goes nothing . . .

When Pelfrey pitches,
All Tigers cry to the sky.
That’s where the ball is.

[Editor’s Note: William Carlos Williams couldn’t have said it better.]

Adam Wainwright, STL

Wainwright is still priced as an average pitcher at DraftKings, where he has produced the expected Plus/Minus results:

 

To put it kindly: He’s not an average pitcher. (At least he has managed to exceeded salary-based expectations twice at FanDuel.) Wainwright offers little Upside despite his -15% Hard-Hit Differential in his last two starts. Having allowed at least three runs in every start this season, Wainwright has a pretty decent chance of doing the same in this game.

C

Victor Martinez, DET

Martinez is listed as a catcher at only FanDuel, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating. As a catcher (but not as a first baseman), Martinez has a top-five hard-hit percentage and is arguably the strongest option for cash games at the position.

Chris Herrmann, ARI

He might not start this game, but it bodes well for Herrmann [Editor’s Note: He-Man] that Arizona is finally going out of its way to squeeze him into the lineup. Note his slate-high wOBA and ISO Differentials of .259/.245. Johnny Cueto isn’t the best pitcher to target tonight, but his hard-hit rate allowed of 34 percent isn’t anything to avoid entirely.

1B

Ryan Howard, PHI

Howard still costs only $100 above the minimum at FanDuel. That alone makes him an option in any format. Additionally, over the last two weeks his batted-ball distance has been superior to that of any other first baseman by at least 15 feet. And his .143 wOBA Differential vs. RHP is notable.

Chris Carter, MIL

Carter’s .548 slugging percentage is top-two at his position, and he gets to face James Shields, who is allowing 1.24 home runs per nine innings. Additionally, the wind is blowing out to left field at 11 miles per hour. As a tournament pivot away from Chris Davis (who is the better cash play), Carter is a terrific option.

2B

Aaron Hill, MIL

At FanDuel, Hill is listed exclusively at third base (and has a 91 Bargain Rating), but he’s not a great FD play because the position is filled with elite options. At DraftKings, however, Hill is eligible at second base, where his batted-ball distance over the last 15 days trails only that of Hernan Perez. I’d rather pay up at DK in order to secure him over less intriguing options at the position.

3B

Manny Machado, BAL

Machado has a top-five batted-ball distance and exit velocity, and the ode-inspiring Pelfrey is on the mound. Additionally, the wind in Baltimore is currently blowing out to left field. That obviously bodes well for Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Machado, and all other right-handed batters in this matchup.

SS

Brandon Crawford, SF

It’s slightly worrisome that he faces Zach Greinke tonight, but Crawford may arguably be the most valuable player at any position. His ISO Differential is top-four among shortstops, and his batted-ball distance and exit velocity are also the highest at his position. And with a Salary Change of -$900 at FD and -$600 at DK, he’s even a viable cash option tonight.

OF

Brandon Moss, STL

Jered Weaver’s batted-ball distance allowed over the last two weeks is the highest among the slate’s pitchers. In that same timespan, Moss has had a top-three exit velocity. Now that the former is set to lob pitches to the latter, it makes sense to use Moss as the integral part of any Cardinals stack tonight.

Mike Trout, LAA

Although his .588 slugging percentage is “only” top-four tonight, Trout’s the lone Angel you should refuse to fade if you’re targeting Wainwright. Despite having a top-eight batted-ball distance among outfielders, Trout actually has a declining salary on DK. If you’re paying up at any skill position, Trout is a strong option. He easily carries the most Upside tonight.

Brett Gardner, NYY

Gardner will likely continue leading off as long as Jacoby Ellsbury is sidelined. Note Ian Kennedy’s slate-high 1.42 HR/9. Also, just last year Kennedy allowed 0.58 more HR/9 to lefties than to righties.

Weather Watch

Phillies-Braves might see thunderstorms earlier in the day, but all should be clear by first pitch. It’s actually the only game with any threat of inclement weather tonight. In other words, enjoy.

Good luck!