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MLB DFS 5/11/16 Slate Breakdown

It’s a long day with two large (and juicy) slates, so take a deep breath, maybe add another teaspoon of sugar to that cup of coffee, and dive in.

Er, I mean, let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Early

Pitchers

Madison Bumgarner, SF

Kyle Hendricks  has a much better matchup, but Bumgarner carries the most Upside if you’re looking for cash plays in the early slate. He has received only 47 percent of moneyline bets so far, but his slate-high Park Factor at least makes it tougher for Toronto to exploit him. Also, note his exit velocity allowed of only 86 miles per hour in his last two starts, which ranks third-highest in the first slate of the day. Toronto has struck out in “only” 23.6 percent of its at-bats against left-handed pitching, but compare that to some of the other prime matchups of the day — such as Chris Archer versus the Mariners and Cole Hamels against the White Sox — and Bumgarner reigns supreme.

Taijuan Walker, SEA

The Rays strikeout percentage versus right-handed pitching (27.2 percent) is 0.7 percentage points higher than that of any other team. Their projected lineup for today is averaging .021 more strikeouts per at-bat than any other offense. So it only makes sense to load up on Walker, right? That he exited his last outing early should also do wonders for his exposure in tournaments, despite the fact that he has been gifted an immaculate matchup.

Danny Salazar, CLE

I wouldn’t expect the Astros to be completely shut down as they were yesterday, but the scales lean toward Salazar in this matchup. Not only has he received the highest percentage of moneyline bets of any pitcher in Vegas today, but his line-drive percentage over his last two starts is the lowest at his position. And Houston’s strikeout rate (26.5 percent) vs. RHP only makes Salazar’s 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel all the more enticing.

Pitchers to Exploit

Robbie Ray, ARI

This can go only poorly for Ray. Per our advanced stats, he has the slate’s worst marks in batted-ball distance allowed, exit velocity allowed, and hard-hit percentage allowed. [Editor’s Note: If Ray has children, he probably allows them to do anything they want.]

Pitching at Coors Field, he is facing the team that has the league’s best slugging percentage versus lefties. It’s no wonder that Colorado is projected to score the most runs today.

Phil Hughes, MIN 

You know all those peripherals that Ray “leads” in? Hughes comes in second in most. He allows a slate-worst 1.53 home runs per nine innings. As the Orioles don’t need to be concerned with strikeouts — Hughes has averaged only 5.35 strikeouts per nine innings this season — they should be able to wreak havoc with their .196 Isolated Power (ISO) vs. RHP.

C

Yan Gomes, CLE

Doug Fister’s 1.45 HR/9 trail only Phil Hughes’ today. Gomes’ exit velocity over the last 15 days isn’t anything to write home about, but his .402 slugging percentage is top-10 among catchers in the early slate. I’d even prioritize him in cash lineups if the Astros keep their roof open, seeing as he would likely benefit from the winds blowing out to left field at 12 MPH.

1B

Mark Reynolds, COL

While most DFS players will build lineups around Carlos Gonzalez and Trevor Story (for obvious reasons), Reynolds is the one player at Coors Field who should not be forgotten. His batted-ball distance in his last nine starts leads all first basemen in the early slate. Our Player Models also show him with a Batted-Ball Distance Differential of +34 feet in that span.

Carlos Santana, CLE

I’m off of Santana if the Indians bat him at No. 5 again, which is entirely plausible with Michael Brantley’s status up in the air. Just monitor it as first pitch approaches. If he leads off, we’re all good. Note his top-five hard-hit percentage among first basemen this afternoon. His eight Pro Trends place him second to only Byung-Ho Park (nine) in the early slate.

2B

Rougned Odor, TEX

Odor is one of the easier cash plays of the day. Not only is his batted-ball distance unsurprisingly top-five at second base, but his slugging percentage trails only Tommy La Stella’s. Mat Latos has also allowed at least seven hits and four runs in back-to-back starts.

3B

Kris Bryant, CHC

Although he has a negative Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) Differential, I prefer Bryant to the rest of the options in the early slate. Most DFSers are likely to pay up for Nolan Arenado (or down for Jake Lamb), leaving Bryant under-rostered. He has a slate-high exit velocity and a hard-hit rate eight percentage points higher than that of any other third baseman over the last two weeks.

SS

Trevor Story, COL

It appears to be one of those days where he can’t be faded. As noted earlier, Ray’s batted-ball distance allowed is the highest among pitchers today. Unfortunately for Arizona, Story’s batted-ball distance is the highest among shortstops. Not that you need further evidence of his likely production, but Story has a .750 slugging percentage against southpaws.

OF

Miguel Sano, MIN

Although Tyler Wilson has allowed only 0.46 HR/9 in the past year, he’s the lowest-rated pitcher in our Bales Model today. Sano has produced a slightly negative wOBA Differential against righties, but he quietly has a top-five batted-ball distance and exit velocity among outfielders over the last two weeks. He (and most Twins, for that matter) are perfectly viable in tournaments, as Minnesota will likely be overlooked.

Nomar Mazara, TEX

If you’re rostering Odor, it’s basically mandatory to stack him with his partner in crime. Mazara’s exit velocity has been stagnant over the last two weeks, but he does have a top-five ISO Differential this afternoon.

Main

Pitchers

Max Scherzer, WAS

Over the last 20 days (or his four previous performances), Scherzer has experienced a Salary Change of -$2,900 at FanDuel. He has actually allowed a rather high 1.34 HR/9 over the last 12 months, but his 10.8 SO/9 are proof that he still has too much Upside to warrant his low price. With an exit velocity allowed that is 6 MPH lower than Noah Syndergaard’s over the last two weeks, Scherzer is the pitcher I prefer in the main slate.

John Lackey, CHC

In Game 2 of today’s doubleheader, Lackey has the strikeout potential to stifle the Padres. In fact, he has already produced 11 Ks in two separate outings this season. Given that San Diego is a bottom-four team vs. RHP in terms of wOBA, ISO, and slugging percentage, Lackey is an elite option if you choose to forego Syndergaard and Scherzer. They all share the same number of Pro Trends.

Juan Nicasio, PIT

The Reds are still a feared offense due to their series with the Brewers, which makes Nicasio an even more enticing play tonight. After all, Cincinatti’s wOBA vs. RHP sits at a paltry .296. Even with a median batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks, Nicasio in that span has a hard-hit percentage that trails only Jaime Garcia’s among pitchers tonight. With a 96 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings and 10.33 SO/9, Nicasio is certainly worth chasing if you’re looking to pay down at the position.

Pitchers to Exploit

Alfredo Simon, CIN

If you planned on stacking against Simon yesterday (and you probably were), there’s no need to change that approach tonight. He actually has a top-five batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks . . . but a lot of that has to do with facing an anemic Milwaukee offense. In his last start against Pittsburgh, for example, he was pulled after allowing four runs in only four innings. Dennis Green said it best: “He is who we thought he was,” or something like that.

Eric Surkamp, OAK

Surkamp has yet to make it beyond 5.2 innings in any of his four starts this season. His seasonal high for strikeouts is three. Most DraftKings points: 8.75. Fewest runs allowed: two. He has allowed 2.16 HR/9 over the past year. Are we done here?

C

Salvador Perez, KC

The Royals are projected to score only 3.5 runs, but I’m not buying it. If it weren’t for Eric Surkamp, after all, Pineda would easily “lead” the slate with 1.63 HR/9. I’m even up for a Royals stack tonight as long as it centers around Perez. Note his dazzling wOBA and ISO Differentials of .128/.092.

1B

Matt Adams, STL

I don’t have any clue who the hell Mike Matheny plans on starting tonight. In fact, the manatees probably haven’t even picked his lineup yet. [Editor’s Note: Classic.]

But if Adams starts, he will be an enormous value, as he’s priced only $100 above the minimum at FanDuel. Cash, tournaments, whatever. His .124 ISO Differential is all too good to pass on if he’s in the lineup.

Kendrys Morales, KC

Hosmer isn’t a terrible play (the contrary, actually), but he’ll be rostered in a much higher percentage of lineups than Morales will. That doesn’t make any sense, seeing as the latter’s batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage are all superior to Hosmer’s over the last two weeks. He’s also a whopping $1,800 cheaper at FanDuel.

2B

Derek Dietrich, MIA

Even if Dietrich doesn’t lead off (although I suspect that he will), he needs to be rostered anytime Miami has a plus matchup. That’s the case tonight against Chase Anderson, who is allowing a hard-hit rate of 50 percent in his last two starts. So basically it’s a coin flip as to whether any opposing hitter is going to turn on a ball like Benny Rodriguez whenever Anderson throws.

3B

David Freese, 3B

I suggested Freese yesterday even before he was listed as Pittsburgh’s leadoff hitter. If he stays at the top of the lineup, he’s viable in cash games. Sure, his batted-ball distance over the last two weeks is only slightly above average, but his $2,500 salary at FanDuel is all too cheap given the matchup.

SS

Jung-Ho Kang, PIT

Kang is the better “value” at FanDuel but is arguably a worse play there because he’s eligible only at third base (where Freese is a better cash option). At DraftKings, where he also has shortstop eligibility, Kang has a top-three batted-ball distance at the position. His exit velocity at shortstop is also second only to Trevor Story’s.

OF

Gregory Polanco, PIT

Freese wasn’t the only one in Pittsburgh to suddenly benefit from a rise in the lineup. Polanco was shifted to No. 3, which now makes his 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel even more absurd. Also, note his Hard-Hit Differential of +11% over the last 15 days.

Chris Young, BOS

Expected to remain in the lineup with another lefty on the mound, Young has a batted-ball distance over the last six games superior to that of any outfielder in the slate. With a .127 wOBA Differential, Young is one of the few ways to gain unique exposure to Boston (and, even more so, Surkamp).

Weather Watch

Orioles-Twins isn’t likely to see rain until well into play. Tigers-Nationals is expected to have showers all morning, but the rain should clear at least an hour prior to first pitch. Diamondbacks-Rockies could see thunderstorms at some point but should also see sunshine shortly thereafter. That makes their hitters still perfectly viable no matter the format.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

It’s a long day with two large (and juicy) slates, so take a deep breath, maybe add another teaspoon of sugar to that cup of coffee, and dive in.

Er, I mean, let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Early

Pitchers

Madison Bumgarner, SF

Kyle Hendricks  has a much better matchup, but Bumgarner carries the most Upside if you’re looking for cash plays in the early slate. He has received only 47 percent of moneyline bets so far, but his slate-high Park Factor at least makes it tougher for Toronto to exploit him. Also, note his exit velocity allowed of only 86 miles per hour in his last two starts, which ranks third-highest in the first slate of the day. Toronto has struck out in “only” 23.6 percent of its at-bats against left-handed pitching, but compare that to some of the other prime matchups of the day — such as Chris Archer versus the Mariners and Cole Hamels against the White Sox — and Bumgarner reigns supreme.

Taijuan Walker, SEA

The Rays strikeout percentage versus right-handed pitching (27.2 percent) is 0.7 percentage points higher than that of any other team. Their projected lineup for today is averaging .021 more strikeouts per at-bat than any other offense. So it only makes sense to load up on Walker, right? That he exited his last outing early should also do wonders for his exposure in tournaments, despite the fact that he has been gifted an immaculate matchup.

Danny Salazar, CLE

I wouldn’t expect the Astros to be completely shut down as they were yesterday, but the scales lean toward Salazar in this matchup. Not only has he received the highest percentage of moneyline bets of any pitcher in Vegas today, but his line-drive percentage over his last two starts is the lowest at his position. And Houston’s strikeout rate (26.5 percent) vs. RHP only makes Salazar’s 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel all the more enticing.

Pitchers to Exploit

Robbie Ray, ARI

This can go only poorly for Ray. Per our advanced stats, he has the slate’s worst marks in batted-ball distance allowed, exit velocity allowed, and hard-hit percentage allowed. [Editor’s Note: If Ray has children, he probably allows them to do anything they want.]

Pitching at Coors Field, he is facing the team that has the league’s best slugging percentage versus lefties. It’s no wonder that Colorado is projected to score the most runs today.

Phil Hughes, MIN 

You know all those peripherals that Ray “leads” in? Hughes comes in second in most. He allows a slate-worst 1.53 home runs per nine innings. As the Orioles don’t need to be concerned with strikeouts — Hughes has averaged only 5.35 strikeouts per nine innings this season — they should be able to wreak havoc with their .196 Isolated Power (ISO) vs. RHP.

C

Yan Gomes, CLE

Doug Fister’s 1.45 HR/9 trail only Phil Hughes’ today. Gomes’ exit velocity over the last 15 days isn’t anything to write home about, but his .402 slugging percentage is top-10 among catchers in the early slate. I’d even prioritize him in cash lineups if the Astros keep their roof open, seeing as he would likely benefit from the winds blowing out to left field at 12 MPH.

1B

Mark Reynolds, COL

While most DFS players will build lineups around Carlos Gonzalez and Trevor Story (for obvious reasons), Reynolds is the one player at Coors Field who should not be forgotten. His batted-ball distance in his last nine starts leads all first basemen in the early slate. Our Player Models also show him with a Batted-Ball Distance Differential of +34 feet in that span.

Carlos Santana, CLE

I’m off of Santana if the Indians bat him at No. 5 again, which is entirely plausible with Michael Brantley’s status up in the air. Just monitor it as first pitch approaches. If he leads off, we’re all good. Note his top-five hard-hit percentage among first basemen this afternoon. His eight Pro Trends place him second to only Byung-Ho Park (nine) in the early slate.

2B

Rougned Odor, TEX

Odor is one of the easier cash plays of the day. Not only is his batted-ball distance unsurprisingly top-five at second base, but his slugging percentage trails only Tommy La Stella’s. Mat Latos has also allowed at least seven hits and four runs in back-to-back starts.

3B

Kris Bryant, CHC

Although he has a negative Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) Differential, I prefer Bryant to the rest of the options in the early slate. Most DFSers are likely to pay up for Nolan Arenado (or down for Jake Lamb), leaving Bryant under-rostered. He has a slate-high exit velocity and a hard-hit rate eight percentage points higher than that of any other third baseman over the last two weeks.

SS

Trevor Story, COL

It appears to be one of those days where he can’t be faded. As noted earlier, Ray’s batted-ball distance allowed is the highest among pitchers today. Unfortunately for Arizona, Story’s batted-ball distance is the highest among shortstops. Not that you need further evidence of his likely production, but Story has a .750 slugging percentage against southpaws.

OF

Miguel Sano, MIN

Although Tyler Wilson has allowed only 0.46 HR/9 in the past year, he’s the lowest-rated pitcher in our Bales Model today. Sano has produced a slightly negative wOBA Differential against righties, but he quietly has a top-five batted-ball distance and exit velocity among outfielders over the last two weeks. He (and most Twins, for that matter) are perfectly viable in tournaments, as Minnesota will likely be overlooked.

Nomar Mazara, TEX

If you’re rostering Odor, it’s basically mandatory to stack him with his partner in crime. Mazara’s exit velocity has been stagnant over the last two weeks, but he does have a top-five ISO Differential this afternoon.

Main

Pitchers

Max Scherzer, WAS

Over the last 20 days (or his four previous performances), Scherzer has experienced a Salary Change of -$2,900 at FanDuel. He has actually allowed a rather high 1.34 HR/9 over the last 12 months, but his 10.8 SO/9 are proof that he still has too much Upside to warrant his low price. With an exit velocity allowed that is 6 MPH lower than Noah Syndergaard’s over the last two weeks, Scherzer is the pitcher I prefer in the main slate.

John Lackey, CHC

In Game 2 of today’s doubleheader, Lackey has the strikeout potential to stifle the Padres. In fact, he has already produced 11 Ks in two separate outings this season. Given that San Diego is a bottom-four team vs. RHP in terms of wOBA, ISO, and slugging percentage, Lackey is an elite option if you choose to forego Syndergaard and Scherzer. They all share the same number of Pro Trends.

Juan Nicasio, PIT

The Reds are still a feared offense due to their series with the Brewers, which makes Nicasio an even more enticing play tonight. After all, Cincinatti’s wOBA vs. RHP sits at a paltry .296. Even with a median batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks, Nicasio in that span has a hard-hit percentage that trails only Jaime Garcia’s among pitchers tonight. With a 96 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings and 10.33 SO/9, Nicasio is certainly worth chasing if you’re looking to pay down at the position.

Pitchers to Exploit

Alfredo Simon, CIN

If you planned on stacking against Simon yesterday (and you probably were), there’s no need to change that approach tonight. He actually has a top-five batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks . . . but a lot of that has to do with facing an anemic Milwaukee offense. In his last start against Pittsburgh, for example, he was pulled after allowing four runs in only four innings. Dennis Green said it best: “He is who we thought he was,” or something like that.

Eric Surkamp, OAK

Surkamp has yet to make it beyond 5.2 innings in any of his four starts this season. His seasonal high for strikeouts is three. Most DraftKings points: 8.75. Fewest runs allowed: two. He has allowed 2.16 HR/9 over the past year. Are we done here?

C

Salvador Perez, KC

The Royals are projected to score only 3.5 runs, but I’m not buying it. If it weren’t for Eric Surkamp, after all, Pineda would easily “lead” the slate with 1.63 HR/9. I’m even up for a Royals stack tonight as long as it centers around Perez. Note his dazzling wOBA and ISO Differentials of .128/.092.

1B

Matt Adams, STL

I don’t have any clue who the hell Mike Matheny plans on starting tonight. In fact, the manatees probably haven’t even picked his lineup yet. [Editor’s Note: Classic.]

But if Adams starts, he will be an enormous value, as he’s priced only $100 above the minimum at FanDuel. Cash, tournaments, whatever. His .124 ISO Differential is all too good to pass on if he’s in the lineup.

Kendrys Morales, KC

Hosmer isn’t a terrible play (the contrary, actually), but he’ll be rostered in a much higher percentage of lineups than Morales will. That doesn’t make any sense, seeing as the latter’s batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage are all superior to Hosmer’s over the last two weeks. He’s also a whopping $1,800 cheaper at FanDuel.

2B

Derek Dietrich, MIA

Even if Dietrich doesn’t lead off (although I suspect that he will), he needs to be rostered anytime Miami has a plus matchup. That’s the case tonight against Chase Anderson, who is allowing a hard-hit rate of 50 percent in his last two starts. So basically it’s a coin flip as to whether any opposing hitter is going to turn on a ball like Benny Rodriguez whenever Anderson throws.

3B

David Freese, 3B

I suggested Freese yesterday even before he was listed as Pittsburgh’s leadoff hitter. If he stays at the top of the lineup, he’s viable in cash games. Sure, his batted-ball distance over the last two weeks is only slightly above average, but his $2,500 salary at FanDuel is all too cheap given the matchup.

SS

Jung-Ho Kang, PIT

Kang is the better “value” at FanDuel but is arguably a worse play there because he’s eligible only at third base (where Freese is a better cash option). At DraftKings, where he also has shortstop eligibility, Kang has a top-three batted-ball distance at the position. His exit velocity at shortstop is also second only to Trevor Story’s.

OF

Gregory Polanco, PIT

Freese wasn’t the only one in Pittsburgh to suddenly benefit from a rise in the lineup. Polanco was shifted to No. 3, which now makes his 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel even more absurd. Also, note his Hard-Hit Differential of +11% over the last 15 days.

Chris Young, BOS

Expected to remain in the lineup with another lefty on the mound, Young has a batted-ball distance over the last six games superior to that of any outfielder in the slate. With a .127 wOBA Differential, Young is one of the few ways to gain unique exposure to Boston (and, even more so, Surkamp).

Weather Watch

Orioles-Twins isn’t likely to see rain until well into play. Tigers-Nationals is expected to have showers all morning, but the rain should clear at least an hour prior to first pitch. Diamondbacks-Rockies could see thunderstorms at some point but should also see sunshine shortly thereafter. That makes their hitters still perfectly viable no matter the format.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.