Our Blog

  1. Home
  2. Our Blog
  3. MLB DFS 5/10/16 Slate Breakdown
MLB

MLB DFS 5/10/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s do this. (And check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Drew Smyly, TB 

The Mariners are sprinkled with assassins who seek left-handed pitchers — Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager, for instance — but Smyly’s 87 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel is worth chasing. Vegas tends to think so, too, as Smyly and the Rays have received a whopping 96 percent of moneyline bets. Forget about his rather high 216-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks and instead focus on his single-digit line-drive percentage in that span. He also has a top-two exit velocity allowed. With massive strikeout potential — 10.55 strikeouts per nine innings, second only to Jose Berrios — Smyly is absolutely worth paying for.

Jon Lester, CHC

Lester is an even stronger play today (as opposed to yesterday) given that fewer aces are available. But inclement weather unfortunately still lingers. Chicago is expecting more thunderstorms at and around first pitch. If it starts looking like this one will play itself out, you might be able to get away with Lester in tournaments, and he’s still a great play, as San Diego trails only Atlanta in terms of strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching. Also note that Lester’s -240 moneyline is once again the highest among pitchers.

Masahiro Tanaka, NYY

The lineup that Kansas City typically deploys versus right-handed pitching has the lowest strikeouts per at-bat among offenses tonight. And yet the Royals also have a bottom-five Isolated Power (ISO). Given that Tanaka has allowed the slate’s lowest batted-ball distance in the last two weeks, he is an elite option in cash games and especially tournaments (as he will likely be rostered in few lineups). It helps that he matches Lester in Pro Trends with 10.

Kevin Gausman, BAL

For the low price of $7,700 at FanDuel, Gausman has the kind of Upside that we’re looking for in inexpensive pitchers. And his top-five batted-ball distance allowed isn’t all that’s working in his favor. The wind in Minnesota is also blowing in at 11 miles per hour, reducing the opportunities for home runs. If you’re not willing to spend up, then Gausman’s arguably the strongest option of anyone priced below $8,000.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jacob deGrom, NYM

His struggles since returning from injury are documented, but deGrom’s troubles go beyond the heightened runs allowed as of late. His Pitch Velocity Differential is -2.1 MPH in the last 15 days. That’s significant because on average the pitcher who has shown at least a two MPH drop in pitch velocity has historically produced a Plus/Minus of -4.16. The Dodgers have a bottom-five slugging percentage vs. RHP, but I’m not touching deGrom (especially in cash games) until he proves that he’s healthy.

Matt Wisler, ATL

No sane human is going to stack the Phillies, which is exactly why you should in tournaments. (You’re already reading this preview, so don’t even try to defend yourself.) [Editor’s Note: Seconded.] They rank in the bottom third of nearly every important batting category, but Wisler’s hard-hit percentage (HH%) over the last two weeks is seven percentage points higher than anyone else’s. Three of Philadelphia’s first four hitters — Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis, and Ryan Howard — also have outstanding differentials vs. RHP.

Sean O’Sullivan, BOS

Dating back to his last two seasons with the Phillies, O’Sullivan has allowed 2.08 HR/9. His HH% over the last year is also the highest among pitchers with double-digit starts. Much was made of Chris Young’s horrid performance against the Yankees last night, but O’Sullivan’s peripherals are so bad that it wouldn’t be shocking to see him “top” it.

C

Jason Castro, HOU

Trevor Bauer has allowed 0.51 more HR/9 to lefties (as opposed to righties) over the last year. Although the Astros have much stronger options scattered throughout their lineup, Castro — with his 248-foot batted-ball distance in his last 10 games — is a terrific way to gain unique exposure to the Astros and Bauer. Castro’s not a cash option, however, since he’ll likely continue to bat last in the order.

Welington Castillo, ARI

I love Chris Herrmann. I love that Arizona now feels the need to play him everywhere just to force him into their lineup. But I don’t love his career .128/.192/.373 slash versus lefties. In turn, I’m inclined to be all-in on Castillo, whose .589 slugging percentage against said handedness leads all catchers.

1B

Ryan Howard, PHI

If you’re stacking against Wisler tonight, Howard is the one Philly you shouldn’t look to fade. Not only is his Weighted On-Base (wOBA) Differential second among first basemen tonight, but he costs only $2,200 at FanDuel. With a batted-ball distance that trails only Justin Bour’s over the last two weeks, Howard’s a lock for tournaments (or cash games, if you want to spend up elsewhere).

Chris Davis, BAL

Berrios has major strikeout upside, but he has always struggled with locating his pitches. If not convinced by his 6.75 walks allowed per nine innings this season, you need look no further than his average of 4.24 BB/9 in Triple-A. Berrios might be able to dance around the Orioles’ lineup early in the game, but Davis’ .616 slugging percentage will likely assert itself eventually.

2B

Brett Lawrie, CWS

I don’t expect Derek Holland to implode as he did in his last start, but Lawrie is worth rostering no matter the results. Just take into account his .093 wOBA Differential against lefties. He also has a top-two exit velocity among second basemen in the last two weeks. He remains a steal at FanDuel, where he has a 95 percent Bargain Rating.

3B

David Freese, PIT

Don’t worry about Freese’s negative wOBA Differential vs. RHP. As long as he continues batting third for Pittsburgh, he’s in a terrific spot against Alfredo Simon tonight. His batted-ball distance in the last two weeks is only slightly above average, but his $2,600 salary at FanDuel is all too cheap given the matchup.

Travis Shaw, BOS

Although Shaw has a negative ISO Differential against lefties this season, his ISO was .119 greater against said handedness just last year. Sean Manaea is one of the more obvious pitchers to target tonight, with 1.8 HR/9 over the last 12 months, putting Shaw in an immaculate spot for tournaments.

SS

Troy Tulowitzki, TOR

Tulowitzi’s 237-foot batted-ball distance makes him an easy recommendation for cash games, despite having the worst Park Factor tonight. You might, however, want to fade him in tournaments, as he’s likely to have a high lineup percentage, due the five home runs he has hit against Matt Cain.

Jung-Ho Kang, PIT

Kang is much cheaper at FanDuel but is arguably a worse play there because he is eligible only at third base. At DraftKings, where he also has shortstop eligibility, he has a top-three batted-ball distance at the position. His exit velocity at shortstop is also second only to Trevor Story’s.

OF

Joc Pederson, LAD

Pederson (among others on the team) received a day off yesterday due to a lefty being on the mound. Facing deGrom tonight, Pederson leads his position in batted-ball distance and exit velocity over his last nine starts. Given deGrom’s struggles, Pederson is my favorite contrarian option of the evening.

Jackie Bradley, Jr., BOS

Bradley’s grand slam yesterday ruined everything, as he’ll likely be rostered in a high percentage of lineups tonight. Even so, I’d be content in stacking him with whomever else in Boston, due to his 48 percent HH% in his last 12 games. The wind at Fenway is also expected to blow out to right field, which bodes well for Bradley and all other left-handed hitters (hence the aforementioned Shaw).

Daniel Nava, LAA

On an admittedly small sample, Nava has a top-three batted-ball distance among outfielders since returning from injury. (He also has a top-two batted-ball distance among first basemen, where he simultaneously qualifies at DraftKings.)

Gregory Polanco, PIT

Alfredo Simon needs to be targeted somehow, and Polanco is a unique way to do it. Not only does he have a 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, but our Player Models also show that he has a wOBA Differential of .082. Also note his Hard-Hit Differential of +11% over the last 15 days.

Weather Watch

The funny thing about Padres-Cubs being postponed yesterday is that the weather hasn’t exactly changed. There’s a three-hour window at 6-9 PM ET when the game could potentially fit, but thunderstorms are expected both before and after. That puts Lester’s status entirely up in the air. Additionally, Diamondbacks-Rockies will likely start but has a slightly above-average chance of thunderstorms beginning at 8 PM. That game will need to be intently monitored up until lineup lock.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

Let’s do this. (And check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Drew Smyly, TB 

The Mariners are sprinkled with assassins who seek left-handed pitchers — Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager, for instance — but Smyly’s 87 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel is worth chasing. Vegas tends to think so, too, as Smyly and the Rays have received a whopping 96 percent of moneyline bets. Forget about his rather high 216-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks and instead focus on his single-digit line-drive percentage in that span. He also has a top-two exit velocity allowed. With massive strikeout potential — 10.55 strikeouts per nine innings, second only to Jose Berrios — Smyly is absolutely worth paying for.

Jon Lester, CHC

Lester is an even stronger play today (as opposed to yesterday) given that fewer aces are available. But inclement weather unfortunately still lingers. Chicago is expecting more thunderstorms at and around first pitch. If it starts looking like this one will play itself out, you might be able to get away with Lester in tournaments, and he’s still a great play, as San Diego trails only Atlanta in terms of strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching. Also note that Lester’s -240 moneyline is once again the highest among pitchers.

Masahiro Tanaka, NYY

The lineup that Kansas City typically deploys versus right-handed pitching has the lowest strikeouts per at-bat among offenses tonight. And yet the Royals also have a bottom-five Isolated Power (ISO). Given that Tanaka has allowed the slate’s lowest batted-ball distance in the last two weeks, he is an elite option in cash games and especially tournaments (as he will likely be rostered in few lineups). It helps that he matches Lester in Pro Trends with 10.

Kevin Gausman, BAL

For the low price of $7,700 at FanDuel, Gausman has the kind of Upside that we’re looking for in inexpensive pitchers. And his top-five batted-ball distance allowed isn’t all that’s working in his favor. The wind in Minnesota is also blowing in at 11 miles per hour, reducing the opportunities for home runs. If you’re not willing to spend up, then Gausman’s arguably the strongest option of anyone priced below $8,000.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jacob deGrom, NYM

His struggles since returning from injury are documented, but deGrom’s troubles go beyond the heightened runs allowed as of late. His Pitch Velocity Differential is -2.1 MPH in the last 15 days. That’s significant because on average the pitcher who has shown at least a two MPH drop in pitch velocity has historically produced a Plus/Minus of -4.16. The Dodgers have a bottom-five slugging percentage vs. RHP, but I’m not touching deGrom (especially in cash games) until he proves that he’s healthy.

Matt Wisler, ATL

No sane human is going to stack the Phillies, which is exactly why you should in tournaments. (You’re already reading this preview, so don’t even try to defend yourself.) [Editor’s Note: Seconded.] They rank in the bottom third of nearly every important batting category, but Wisler’s hard-hit percentage (HH%) over the last two weeks is seven percentage points higher than anyone else’s. Three of Philadelphia’s first four hitters — Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis, and Ryan Howard — also have outstanding differentials vs. RHP.

Sean O’Sullivan, BOS

Dating back to his last two seasons with the Phillies, O’Sullivan has allowed 2.08 HR/9. His HH% over the last year is also the highest among pitchers with double-digit starts. Much was made of Chris Young’s horrid performance against the Yankees last night, but O’Sullivan’s peripherals are so bad that it wouldn’t be shocking to see him “top” it.

C

Jason Castro, HOU

Trevor Bauer has allowed 0.51 more HR/9 to lefties (as opposed to righties) over the last year. Although the Astros have much stronger options scattered throughout their lineup, Castro — with his 248-foot batted-ball distance in his last 10 games — is a terrific way to gain unique exposure to the Astros and Bauer. Castro’s not a cash option, however, since he’ll likely continue to bat last in the order.

Welington Castillo, ARI

I love Chris Herrmann. I love that Arizona now feels the need to play him everywhere just to force him into their lineup. But I don’t love his career .128/.192/.373 slash versus lefties. In turn, I’m inclined to be all-in on Castillo, whose .589 slugging percentage against said handedness leads all catchers.

1B

Ryan Howard, PHI

If you’re stacking against Wisler tonight, Howard is the one Philly you shouldn’t look to fade. Not only is his Weighted On-Base (wOBA) Differential second among first basemen tonight, but he costs only $2,200 at FanDuel. With a batted-ball distance that trails only Justin Bour’s over the last two weeks, Howard’s a lock for tournaments (or cash games, if you want to spend up elsewhere).

Chris Davis, BAL

Berrios has major strikeout upside, but he has always struggled with locating his pitches. If not convinced by his 6.75 walks allowed per nine innings this season, you need look no further than his average of 4.24 BB/9 in Triple-A. Berrios might be able to dance around the Orioles’ lineup early in the game, but Davis’ .616 slugging percentage will likely assert itself eventually.

2B

Brett Lawrie, CWS

I don’t expect Derek Holland to implode as he did in his last start, but Lawrie is worth rostering no matter the results. Just take into account his .093 wOBA Differential against lefties. He also has a top-two exit velocity among second basemen in the last two weeks. He remains a steal at FanDuel, where he has a 95 percent Bargain Rating.

3B

David Freese, PIT

Don’t worry about Freese’s negative wOBA Differential vs. RHP. As long as he continues batting third for Pittsburgh, he’s in a terrific spot against Alfredo Simon tonight. His batted-ball distance in the last two weeks is only slightly above average, but his $2,600 salary at FanDuel is all too cheap given the matchup.

Travis Shaw, BOS

Although Shaw has a negative ISO Differential against lefties this season, his ISO was .119 greater against said handedness just last year. Sean Manaea is one of the more obvious pitchers to target tonight, with 1.8 HR/9 over the last 12 months, putting Shaw in an immaculate spot for tournaments.

SS

Troy Tulowitzki, TOR

Tulowitzi’s 237-foot batted-ball distance makes him an easy recommendation for cash games, despite having the worst Park Factor tonight. You might, however, want to fade him in tournaments, as he’s likely to have a high lineup percentage, due the five home runs he has hit against Matt Cain.

Jung-Ho Kang, PIT

Kang is much cheaper at FanDuel but is arguably a worse play there because he is eligible only at third base. At DraftKings, where he also has shortstop eligibility, he has a top-three batted-ball distance at the position. His exit velocity at shortstop is also second only to Trevor Story’s.

OF

Joc Pederson, LAD

Pederson (among others on the team) received a day off yesterday due to a lefty being on the mound. Facing deGrom tonight, Pederson leads his position in batted-ball distance and exit velocity over his last nine starts. Given deGrom’s struggles, Pederson is my favorite contrarian option of the evening.

Jackie Bradley, Jr., BOS

Bradley’s grand slam yesterday ruined everything, as he’ll likely be rostered in a high percentage of lineups tonight. Even so, I’d be content in stacking him with whomever else in Boston, due to his 48 percent HH% in his last 12 games. The wind at Fenway is also expected to blow out to right field, which bodes well for Bradley and all other left-handed hitters (hence the aforementioned Shaw).

Daniel Nava, LAA

On an admittedly small sample, Nava has a top-three batted-ball distance among outfielders since returning from injury. (He also has a top-two batted-ball distance among first basemen, where he simultaneously qualifies at DraftKings.)

Gregory Polanco, PIT

Alfredo Simon needs to be targeted somehow, and Polanco is a unique way to do it. Not only does he have a 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, but our Player Models also show that he has a wOBA Differential of .082. Also note his Hard-Hit Differential of +11% over the last 15 days.

Weather Watch

The funny thing about Padres-Cubs being postponed yesterday is that the weather hasn’t exactly changed. There’s a three-hour window at 6-9 PM ET when the game could potentially fit, but thunderstorms are expected both before and after. That puts Lester’s status entirely up in the air. Additionally, Diamondbacks-Rockies will likely start but has a slightly above-average chance of thunderstorms beginning at 8 PM. That game will need to be intently monitored up until lineup lock.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.