Let’s get to it.
Pitchers
Chris Sale, CWS
As your obligatory Chalk of the Day, Sale has 11.9 strikeouts per nine, which qualifies as the highest among pitchers. Projected to allow only 3.1 opponent runs, Sale is considered an elite cash option given his current moneyline percentage of 90 percent.
Carlos Martinez, STL
Incredulously underpriced at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 85 percent, Martinez has a fly ball percentage of 24 percent over the last 12 months, the best percentage at his position. Although the Braves recorded the second-lowest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching last season, their Weighted Runs Created Plus of 88 to said handedness is quite poor. Even more notable is Atlanta’s .109 Isolated Power against righties in 2015, which is the lowest on record.
Pitchers to Exploit
C.C. Sabathia, NYY
The Tigers recorded the second-highest slugging percentage against left-handed pitching last season. Allowing 1.55 home runs per nine, Sabathia has the unfortunate task of opposing a murderer’s row of Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and J.D. Martinez, all of whom have a positive ISO Difference against lefties.
Zach Greinke, ARI
As noted in his first start, Greinke went from arguably the best catcher in terms of framing in A.J. Ellis to potentially the worst in Wellington Castillo this offseason. Now, that’s not the only reason for his horrid performance of -7 DraftKings points Monday, but it certainly doesn’t help him. Unfortunately for him, Greinke now has to maneuver a projected stack of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, and Addison Russell, all of whom have shown more power against right-handed pitching.
Catcher
Stephen Vogt, OAK
Projected to hit fifth for Oakland, Vogt notably produced a wOBA and ISO of .353/.211 against right-handed pitching last season. Against lefties, those splits plummeted to .279/.092.
First Baseman
Miguel Cabrera, DET
Slugging .561 against lefties, Cabrera is the cog in the Detroit stack against Sabathia. He’s projected to hit third for the Tigers.
Second Baseman
Scooter Gennett, MIL
Doug Fister (on the mound for Houston today) had a 5.03 Expected Fielding Independent Pitching against left-handed batters last season. Although Gennett will likely have a higher ownership due to his recent production, note his Plus/Minus of +0.49 when hitting second in Milwaukee’s lineup.
Ian Kinsler, DET
Averaging the highest slugging percentage among second basemen in this slate, Kinsler is the strongest cash option at his position. His line drive percentage of 25 percent trails only Jason Kipnis (26 percent) in the All-Day slate.
Third Baseman
Danny Valencia, OAK
Projected to hit cleanup for the Athletics, Valencia has an ISO Diff of .103, which ranks second at his position. With a 90 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Valencia is a strong option in cash games and guaranteed prize pools.
Shortstop
Addison Russell, CHC
Moving from eight to seven in the lineup (with Kyle Schwarber out), Russell has a wOBA Diff of .115 (highest among shortstops). He’s a viable (if not strong) option in tournaments.
Outfielder
Ryan Raburn, COL
Brought in specifically to platoon against lefties, Raburn has a wOBA Diff of .210, which qualifies as the third-highest among outfielders. Drew Pomeranz’s HR/9 Difference of 0.35 benefits Raburn, who’s expected to hit sixth for a Rockies team projected to score the most runs in this slate. His line drive percentage also qualifies as the highest of his position.
Michael Conforto, NYM
With a Bargain Rating of 90percent at FanDuel, Conforto has a top-four wOBA and ISO Diff of .208/.268. Although he has yet to hit a homerun this season, Conforto has an exit velocity that trails only J.D. Martinez’s at his position. In other words, soon . . .
Corey Dickerson, TB
With a LD% that trails only Raburn’s among outfielders, Dickerson has an ISO Diff of .179. In the hitter-friendly Camden Yards, he is viable in cash and tournaments alike.
Weather Watch
Phillies-Mets and Dodgers-Giants will need to be monitored closely, as both games have a 67 percent chance of precipitation.
Three Things I Like Or Don’t Like
Madison Bum(med)Garner
Although Bumgarner stated that his injury wasn’t to blame for his 6/5 K/BB performance on Monday night, his velocity was notably several ticks down, just as it had been throughout much of spring training. His max fastball, for instance, clocked in 2.5 mph slower than it did last season, while his changeup had a differential of -5.3 mph. It was only one start, but I would still shy away on the off-chance he’s still recovering.
Jorge De La Rosa: King of Coors
De La Rosa is not a good pitcher. Ask any Rockies fan and the first thing they’ll say is, “he’s not an ace.” However, their followup typically stays the same: “But he’s our ace.” That, in fact, is the case, as De La Rosa has produced a Plus/Minus of +1.98 at Coors. On the road, however, his Plus/Minus dips to -0.1. Still, with the Padres projected to score 4.9 runs, De La Rosa makes for an elite contrarian play.
Wonderful Story Worth Fading
With six homeruns (!) on the year, Story is expected to have the highest ownership in tournaments tonight. And yet his .171 ISO against lefties in the minors remains worth noting. His LD% against said handedness is also 4.3 percent lower. He is a terrific cash option, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him left in the player pool among those top GPP lineups tonight.
Good luck!
