Happy Opening Day! Let the grind begin.
Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner, SF
Mentioned in our MLB podcast last night, I’m really just here to confirm that every peripheral for Bumgarner in this slate screams chalk. Whether it’s his Bargain Rating of 89% at DraftKings, his projected Opponent Runs of 3.3, his moneyline percentage of 79% (second-highest among pitchers) — literally everything is working in Bumgarner’s favor. If not the top cash play (this being a slate with Clayton Kershaw and all), he’s certainly considered top-two.
Tyson Ross, SD
Though a tournament option simply because many tend to shy away from any pitcher opposing Kershaw, the numbers favor Ross in such a way that he also warrant strong consideration in cash. Although the Padres are implied to score only 2.4 runs, for instance, the injury-riddled Dodgers are projected to score only 0.8 more. With the highest ground-ball percentage (and, in turn, lowest fly-ball percentage) among pitchers in this slate, Ross is a terrific option if going against the grain.
Drew Smyly, TB
Strictly considered a tournament option, Smyly includes a 91% Bargain Rating at FanDuel despite having the fourth-highest strikeouts per nine innings in this slate. His fly-ball percentage of 43% is second only to Max Scherzer, but he’s an undervalued option if looking to pay less for strikeouts (since, you know, strikeouts are good).
C
Kyle Schwarber, CHI
Though a horrid K% of 44.3% against left-handed pitching last season, Schwarber crushed righties for a wOBA of .407. His difference in ISO (0.147) when facing right-handed pitching is also a plus. Though the Cubs projection of 3.5 runs isn’t anything to write home about, Schwarber’s hard-hit percentage of 44% — highest of any catcher that’s recorded double-digit games over the last year — keeps him as one of the strongest options at his position.
1B
Chris Davis, BAL
Though a K% 4.7% higher against righties last season, Davis’ ISO difference of 0.14 is considered a steal at FanDuel, where he includes a Bargain Rating of 97%. Tied with Paul Goldschmidt and Ryan Howard for the highest exit velocity among first basemen, Davis should be approached as the top option at his position. The Orioles are also projected to score the most runs in the highest O/U of the day.
2B
Joe Panik, SF
Although a 31 degree forecast certainly isn’t good for anyone but Bumgarner in this matchup, Panik (projected to hit second in San Francisco’s lineup) includes a Bargain Rating of 99% at DraftKings. Expected to be sandwiched in between Denard Span and Buster Posey, Panik’s position in the lineup remains ever-so-important due to this being one of the stronger tournament stacks of the evening — San Francisco is projected to score the second-most runs of any team today.
3B
Josh Donaldson, TOR
I’m sorry that you received your first taste of the volatility that baseball has to offer when Donaldson went 1-for-5 yesterday, but there’s zero need to think twice about it when he opposes a lefty. Donaldson, after all, destroyed left-handed pitching for an ISO difference of 0.104. His 0.649 slugging percentage also qualifies as the highest of his position.
SS
Corey Seager, LAD
For Seager, it essentially boils down to whether or not you believe there’s enough sample there to be relevant. Despite playing only 25 games against right-handed pitching, for instance, Seager’s ISO difference of .202 remains otherworldly. The average distance traveled by his batted ball also qualifies as second-most among shortstops. With an exit velocity that trails only Alexei Ramirez, I believe Seager to be the real deal in today’s slate.
OF
Bryce Harper, WAS
With the wind currently blowing out to right field in Atlanta, Harper’s reduced salary (and therefore, 94% Bargain Rating at DraftKings) seems all too good to pass on. Additionally, Harper remains tied with Chris Davis in hard-hit percentage (41%) among outfielders.
Nelson Cruz, SEA
Cruz absolutely eviscerated left-handed pitching last season, producing a slugging percentage of .673. With a wOBA difference of 0.092, I tend to worry less about his concerning fly-ball percentage — 33%, which, for a power hitter, seems remarkably low — and focus more on his value at FanDuel.
Miguel Sano, MIN
With a Bargain Rating of 99% at DraftKings, there are likely only so many days remaining to get Sano at value. Though a median slugging percentage of .513 against righties, for instance, Sano has produced the most average distance traveled by a batted ball over the last 12 months, as well as a 44% HH% (which led the entire league last year). Get it while you can.
Three Things I Like Or Don’t Like
Denard Span-Joe Panik-Buster Posey-Hunter Pence
With the Giants quietly projected to score the second-most runs of this slate, I believe it to be a terrific spot for a tournament stack for all aforementioned players. Span won’t offer much power as their projected lead-off, of course, but note his average of 0.18 stolen bases per game, which ranks top-seven among outfielders today. I also prefer when catchers hit higher in the order, and Posey, averaging only 0.096 strikeouts per at-bat, is projected to hit third.
Zach Greinke in Arizona
Not so much today given his money line of -210 (the highest among pitchers), but in leaving Los Angeles, Greinke quietly went from arguably the best defensive catcher in framing pitches (thereby allowing for more strikes called in his favor) with Yasmani Grandal to the worst in Wellington Castillo (per Stat Corner). This should get interesting quick.
Roman Reigns Shouldn’t Have Won
Good luck today!
