Let’s do this.

Vegas

Pitchers

Corey Kluber, CLE

Kluber’s production has been the opposite of what was expected in his last two starts — he got pelted despite being in a terrific spot, then followed that up by shutting down one of the better offenses in all of baseball — but there’s no reason to consider him anything other than chalk tonight. Not only is his $11,000 salary at FanDuel entirely too cheap (in comparison to DraftKings), but he’s projected to allow only 3.2 runs. He’s also the only pitcher that’s allowed a single-digit line-drive percentage (8%) in the last 15 days.

Juan Nicasio, PIT

Even Chuck McGill, who, in a last ditch effort, was fortunate enough to secretly record Jimmy McGill’s admission to tampering, isn’t considered as lucky as Nicasio. After all, not only did the latter get to skip his start at Coors Field due to untimely snow, but he’s now instead set to oppose a Reds offense with a bottom-four wOBA vs. RHP. Even his slate-high WHIP shouldn’t be a concern as Cincinnati has produced the lowest BB% (6.1%) against righties this season. Note his almost-offensive $5,800 salary at DraftKings.

Jon Lester, CHC

Opposing southpaws have produced a 2/1 K/line-drive rate (22/11) against Atlanta in their last two starts. This shouldn’t come as a shock, of course, as the Braves’ ISO vs. LHP still sits at an abysmal .043. I’m not entirely sure what his ownership percentage will be (or how many will even play the All Day pining for him), but Lester is obviously a tremendous play if gravitating towards that time frame (rather than the 14 games at night).

Drew Smyly, TB

Smyly’s 10.6 K/9 rate trails only Stephen Strasburg in this slate. He still has the daunting task of dancing around Michael Saunders-Josh Donaldson-Jose Bautista-Edwin Encarnacion-Troy Tulowitzki, but his upside, as well as the fact that Toronto has whiffed at a top-five rate against lefties, is perfectly reasonable to target given his reduced salary ($8,700) at FanDuel.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jake Peavy, SF

I have no data backing this allegation, but I tend to assume that all too many people use ERA entirely too much. That means a Mets stack will likely be one of many go-to approaches tonight. Even so, it’s admittedly a terrific spot for New York as — foregoing ERA for just a moment — their projected wOBA stands at .328. Don’t be fooled by his last start against the Marlins. The Mets, after all, have a top-10 wOBA vs. RHP this season.

Phil Hughes, MIN

If a Detroit stack isn’t actually the highest owned at night’s end, that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be. Just note Hughes’ Speed Differential, which is somehow -5.1 mph lower over his last two starts. Of course, many will look more at BvP (more on that later) rather than his negative peripherals, but that doesn’t make it a bad idea to exploit him.

Alex Wood, LAD

Unlike exposure opposing Hughes, absolutely no one will have exposure attempting to exploit Wood. Even his -180 moneyline suggests the same. Still, though a top-four K% vs. RHP, the Padres have quietly produced a top-six wOBA against lefties. That leaves a three-man stack of Wil Myers-Matt Kemp-Melvin Upton (all of who have positive wOBA Differentials vs. RHP) as one of the lesser-owned intriguing options of the evening (for tournaments, anyways).

C

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, DET

Our own Jay Perrson said it best after reading tonight’s suggestions: “You f*cking love Salty.” And truer words have never been spoken. I could care less about his negative Differentials vs. RHP because his batted-ball distance remains 30 feet further than any other catcher; his exit velocity 3 mph faster. Considering most will likely be covered in chalk between Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, and Victor Martinez, Saltalamacchia (projected to bat seventh) is a unique way to gain exposure towards a not-so-unique approach.

Salvador Perez, KC

Perez has a horrific matchup against Felix Hernandez, yes, but that’s the way most will see it. Another way to look at it would be to note his batted-ball distance and exit velocity, both of which trail only Saltalamacchia (among those with double-digit starts) at their respective position. His .088 wOBA Differential is also top eight among catchers.

1B

Albert Pujols, LAA

No one has avoided more letdown spots than Colby Lewis, who continues to get by despite a top-three batted-ball distance allowed. Look for that to end tonight as Pujols, along with a top-nine batted-ball air time, has historically produced three home runs in 31 at-bats against Lewis.

2B

Tommy La Stella, CHC

The assumed absence of Kris Bryant would likely place La Stella somewhere in Chicago’s infield. And, if that were the case, note his otherworldly wOBA Differential of .364. He’s simply viewed as a valuable option if playing the All Day slate given his exit velocity of 94 mph.

Rougned Odor, TEX

If continuing to lead off against lefties, Odor should always be considered a strong option given his .517 slugging percentage against said handedness. He’s considered a cog if stacking Texas as Hector Santiago’s HR/9 (1.50) allowed is top three in tonight’s slate.

3B

Adrian Beltre, TEX

Much like Odor, Beltre is always an option against lefties: despite being 67-years-old, he has spectacular wOBA and ISO Differentials of .090/.096. He’s still all too cheap at FanDuel (93% Bargain Rating), making him a strong option in cash and tournaments alike.

Miguel Cabrera, DET

Cabrera is an obvious cash play given his five home runs in 41 at-bats against Hughes. Of course, his BvP (something I point out solely to show what most are looking at) is even more reason to fade him in tournaments.

Chris Coghlan, OAK

Coghlan has moved around Oakland’s lineup as of late, but he remains a cash option if hitting second. His batted-ball distance over the last 15 days, for instance, is top eight among third basemen. Costing only $2,300 at FanDuel, he’s an easy way to pivot off of the pricier surrounding options.

SS

Trevor Story, COL

Story has basically become the Chris Carter of shortstops: despite a K% greater than 34% against both righties and lefties, his .104 HR/AB rate keeps him as an electrifying option in the right spot. And tonight, at Chase Field, is the right spot, especially with a .381 ISO vs. LHP.

OF

Michael Conforto, NYM

Conforto’s 11 Pro Trends are two more than any other outfielder tonight. With outstanding wOBA and ISO Differentials (.125/.274), Conforto is the one Met I wouldn’t look to fade if opting to stack them against Peavy.

Ryan Raburn, COL

Raburn is approaching that fine line that Bryce Harper and Josh Donaldson tend to walk in these breakdowns — his peripherals against a particular handedness are all too obvious. That being said, he’s now set to oppose a lefty at Chase Field, a stadium in which right-handed hitters produce a Plus/Minus of +0.68. Lock him up.

Miguel Sano, MIN

Both Sano’s batted-ball distance and exit velocity over the last 15 days qualify as top five among outfielders. With the Twins quietly projected to score 0.5 more runs than Detroit, even stacking Sano with surrounding teammates seems like as intriguing an option as any for tournaments.

Mike Trout, LAA

Still batting only one spot ahead of Pujols, an Angels stack makes for one of the more intriguing approaches of the evening. I realize Trout hasn’t been talked about much this early into the season, but his seven games have, at the least, sprinkled in signs of what’s to come:

 

Weather Watch

First and foremost, Angels-Rangers needs be monitored closely as thunderstorms are expected throughout the evening. Despite the numerous suggestions in that game throughout, it might even be worth fading them all entirely (as there are currently no signs of the inclement weather slowing down). Showers are expected later in the Nationals-Cardinals matchup, but they’re supposed to be just that: showers. Assuming no reports of impending postponement, their hitters remain viable options. Same goes for White Sox-Orioles, which currently has a median chance of precipitation.

Good luck!