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MLB DFS 4/26/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it.

Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw, LAD

I’m not sure a player priced over $13k has ever been coined “valuable,” but alas, here we are. Even in being priced $900 more than anyone else at his position, Kershaw’s moneyline of -301 means he’s all but guaranteed to finish as the highest-scoring option (with the safest floor) at his position. He’s also projected to allow only 2.3 runs. In other words, he’s expected to be Kershaw tonight.

David Price, BOS

In their last assignment against a lefty (versus Steven Matz, for what it’s worth), the Braves racked up eight strikeouts on their way to scoring only two runs. Oh, and their .036 ISO vs. LHP (not a mistype) qualifies as the lowest in the majors. Though a batted-ball distance allowed of 236 feet over his last two performances, Price, who has a top-four SO/9 rate, should easily dominate an abysmal Atlanta offense.

Johnny Cueto, SF

Cueto doesn’t have the best overall peripherals, but at least in the eyes of Vegas, he’s a heavy favorite (as shown by his moneyline of -182). The Padres have also produced a wOBA of .254 vs. RHP this season, second only to the Angels among the league’s worst.

Pitchers to Exploit

Shelby Miller, ARI

I typically think players returning from injury are terrific options in tournaments, but Miller’s batted-ball distance allowed is the highest among pitchers tonight. There might not be anything that can save him from the Cardinals’ projected wOBA of .338 tonight.

James Shields, SD 

Not only does Shields’ 1.52 HR/9 qualify as the highest in this slate, but the wind in the Bay area is currently blowing 15 mph out to right field. That means all left-handed batters for the Giants — Denard Span, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt — are fair game.

Mike Pelfrey, DET

I admittedly look forward to very few things in life — The Wire reruns, new Action Bronson albums, pretzel day — so, when Pelfrey is set to pitch, forgive me when I consider it a national holiday. His WHIP and SO/9, after all, are the lowest in tonight’s slate. Whoever Oakland runs out in the top third of their lineup, simply forget about splits and lock them in.

Chris Sale, CWS

This is more of a fade suggestion than a pitcher to exploit. The Blue Jays projected wOBA against Sale, after all, sits at a whopping .338. Despite his slate-high 11.7 SO/9, note Sale’s fly-ball percentage of 43% over his last two starts.

C

Brian McCann, NYY

Being scratched just yesterday, I can only assume McCann suits up tonight. And if that is the case, note his FB% of 45%. A.J. Griffin has also struggled mightily against left-handed batters, allowing two home runs in only 8.1 innings pitched to said handedness.

1B

Matt Adams, STL

The best way to predict any of Mike Matheny’s lineups is to assume that if someone hadn’t played the night prior, he’s definitely in line to start the following night. Hence this suggestion for Adams, whose exit velocity over his last 10 starts quietly ranks atop all first basemen. With a ridiculous hard-hit percentage of 60%, Adams is certainly viable in cash (you know, if starting).

2B

Neil Walker, NYM

No second baseman is currently hitting the ball farther than Walker, who’s produced a batted-ball distance of 234 feet. Set to oppose Brandon Finnegan tonight, it should be noted that Walker has produced three home runs in only 11 at-bats against lefties this season.

Chris Coghlan, OAK

As mentioned earlier, you never pass on Mike Pelfrey Day. That especially holds true for Coghlan who, if batting second as expected, should wreak havoc; consider his wOBA and ISO Differentials of .203/.195 vs. RHP.

3B

David Wright, NYM

Despite his negative wOBA and ISO Differentials vs. LHP, Wright remains a steal at FanDuel due to his Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s additionally hitting the ball harder than any other third baseman with at least nine starts, producing the highest exit velocity (96 mph) among all those that qualify.

SS

Jordy Mercer, PIT

Mercer was scratched yesterday once the Rockies unveiled that Jorge De La Rosa (a lefty) wouldn’t pitch, but Mercer should be back at the top of Pittsburgh’s lineup tonight. If so, note his positive wOBA and ISO Differentials batting first for a Pirates squad projected to score the most runs.

OF

Miguel Sano, MIN

Along with an 86% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Sano’s exit velocity over his last 11 starts (97 mph) qualifies as the highest among outfielders. Given his discount and superb matchup against Cody Anderson, Sano should even be looked at in cash games.

Carlos Beltran, NYY

I can’t explain it, but Beltran is currently making contact like he’s back in his prime (as shown by his batted-ball distance of 230 feet). Projected to bat third for the Yankees, his slugging percentage of .512 vs. RHP is essentially in a terrific spot for tournaments.

Sean Rodriguez, PIT

Much like Mercer, Rodriguez was scratched following De La Rosa’s announced absence last night. And, again like Mercer, he’s worth going back to if only for his batted-ball distance that’s 22 feet further than any other outfielder in this slate. Given his ridiculous discount at DraftKings (where he has a Bargain Rating of 97%), I would even consider Rodriguez a lesser-known cash option if starting.

Weather Watch

Most will be monitoring Pirates-Rockies, but the precipitation and thunderstorms are expected to stop and clear by early afternoon. Rather, keep a closer eye on Yankees-Rangers as, if anything, there could potentially be delays (making their hitters elite tournament options).

Good luck!

Let’s get to it.

Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw, LAD

I’m not sure a player priced over $13k has ever been coined “valuable,” but alas, here we are. Even in being priced $900 more than anyone else at his position, Kershaw’s moneyline of -301 means he’s all but guaranteed to finish as the highest-scoring option (with the safest floor) at his position. He’s also projected to allow only 2.3 runs. In other words, he’s expected to be Kershaw tonight.

David Price, BOS

In their last assignment against a lefty (versus Steven Matz, for what it’s worth), the Braves racked up eight strikeouts on their way to scoring only two runs. Oh, and their .036 ISO vs. LHP (not a mistype) qualifies as the lowest in the majors. Though a batted-ball distance allowed of 236 feet over his last two performances, Price, who has a top-four SO/9 rate, should easily dominate an abysmal Atlanta offense.

Johnny Cueto, SF

Cueto doesn’t have the best overall peripherals, but at least in the eyes of Vegas, he’s a heavy favorite (as shown by his moneyline of -182). The Padres have also produced a wOBA of .254 vs. RHP this season, second only to the Angels among the league’s worst.

Pitchers to Exploit

Shelby Miller, ARI

I typically think players returning from injury are terrific options in tournaments, but Miller’s batted-ball distance allowed is the highest among pitchers tonight. There might not be anything that can save him from the Cardinals’ projected wOBA of .338 tonight.

James Shields, SD 

Not only does Shields’ 1.52 HR/9 qualify as the highest in this slate, but the wind in the Bay area is currently blowing 15 mph out to right field. That means all left-handed batters for the Giants — Denard Span, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt — are fair game.

Mike Pelfrey, DET

I admittedly look forward to very few things in life — The Wire reruns, new Action Bronson albums, pretzel day — so, when Pelfrey is set to pitch, forgive me when I consider it a national holiday. His WHIP and SO/9, after all, are the lowest in tonight’s slate. Whoever Oakland runs out in the top third of their lineup, simply forget about splits and lock them in.

Chris Sale, CWS

This is more of a fade suggestion than a pitcher to exploit. The Blue Jays projected wOBA against Sale, after all, sits at a whopping .338. Despite his slate-high 11.7 SO/9, note Sale’s fly-ball percentage of 43% over his last two starts.

C

Brian McCann, NYY

Being scratched just yesterday, I can only assume McCann suits up tonight. And if that is the case, note his FB% of 45%. A.J. Griffin has also struggled mightily against left-handed batters, allowing two home runs in only 8.1 innings pitched to said handedness.

1B

Matt Adams, STL

The best way to predict any of Mike Matheny’s lineups is to assume that if someone hadn’t played the night prior, he’s definitely in line to start the following night. Hence this suggestion for Adams, whose exit velocity over his last 10 starts quietly ranks atop all first basemen. With a ridiculous hard-hit percentage of 60%, Adams is certainly viable in cash (you know, if starting).

2B

Neil Walker, NYM

No second baseman is currently hitting the ball farther than Walker, who’s produced a batted-ball distance of 234 feet. Set to oppose Brandon Finnegan tonight, it should be noted that Walker has produced three home runs in only 11 at-bats against lefties this season.

Chris Coghlan, OAK

As mentioned earlier, you never pass on Mike Pelfrey Day. That especially holds true for Coghlan who, if batting second as expected, should wreak havoc; consider his wOBA and ISO Differentials of .203/.195 vs. RHP.

3B

David Wright, NYM

Despite his negative wOBA and ISO Differentials vs. LHP, Wright remains a steal at FanDuel due to his Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s additionally hitting the ball harder than any other third baseman with at least nine starts, producing the highest exit velocity (96 mph) among all those that qualify.

SS

Jordy Mercer, PIT

Mercer was scratched yesterday once the Rockies unveiled that Jorge De La Rosa (a lefty) wouldn’t pitch, but Mercer should be back at the top of Pittsburgh’s lineup tonight. If so, note his positive wOBA and ISO Differentials batting first for a Pirates squad projected to score the most runs.

OF

Miguel Sano, MIN

Along with an 86% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Sano’s exit velocity over his last 11 starts (97 mph) qualifies as the highest among outfielders. Given his discount and superb matchup against Cody Anderson, Sano should even be looked at in cash games.

Carlos Beltran, NYY

I can’t explain it, but Beltran is currently making contact like he’s back in his prime (as shown by his batted-ball distance of 230 feet). Projected to bat third for the Yankees, his slugging percentage of .512 vs. RHP is essentially in a terrific spot for tournaments.

Sean Rodriguez, PIT

Much like Mercer, Rodriguez was scratched following De La Rosa’s announced absence last night. And, again like Mercer, he’s worth going back to if only for his batted-ball distance that’s 22 feet further than any other outfielder in this slate. Given his ridiculous discount at DraftKings (where he has a Bargain Rating of 97%), I would even consider Rodriguez a lesser-known cash option if starting.

Weather Watch

Most will be monitoring Pirates-Rockies, but the precipitation and thunderstorms are expected to stop and clear by early afternoon. Rather, keep a closer eye on Yankees-Rangers as, if anything, there could potentially be delays (making their hitters elite tournament options).

Good luck!