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MLB DFS 4/22/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Jon Lester, CHC

Lester’s 9.18 SO/9 rate trails only Jon Gray in tonight’s slate. With the highest moneyline (-200) among starting pitchers, he can easily be considered the top cash option among tonight’s plethora of available pitchers. Additionally note his minuscule batted-ball distance allowed of 176 feet over his last two starts.

Gio Gonzalez, WSH

If not confident enough in Lester, Gonzalez should be prioritized as the next best option. He might be opposing a lineup with a slight stronger projected wOBA (.309/.284), but he actually includes two more Pro Trends and is projected to allow -0.2 fewer runs. Gonzalez’s line-drive percentage of 8% (lowest among pitchers) is also encouraging for his outlook in cash and tournaments alike.

Aaron Sanchez, TOR

The Athletics haven’t produced an incredibly high K% (19.7%) against right-handed pitching, but their .285 wOBA isn’t terrifying enough to overlook. Sanchez’s 83 mph exit velocity, after all, is the lowest among pitchers tonight. If anything, his top-four batted ball distance is certainly worth a shot in tournaments.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jon Moscot, CIN

Even if the Cubs hadn’t produced 16 runs just yesterday, they would be considered a strong stack against Moscot. All that means for today is higher ownership in tournaments. Still, Moscot’s whopping 2.19 HR/9 allowed over the past year need be exploited.

Jon Gray, COL

Gray is the Rockies’ best prospect, but unfortunately has to make his debut against a Dodgers lineup with a projected wOBA of .319. Oh yes, there will be blood.

C

Welington Castillo, ARI

Castillo’s batted-ball distance this season ranks top five among catchers. Although a negative wOBA and ISO Differential in this slate, Castillo is still set to oppose Jon Niese, who allowed 1.04 HR/9 to right-handed batters just last year. Given how hard he’s currently hitting the ball, Castillo appears to have the best shot at a home run amongst everyone else at his position.

1B

Matt Adams, STL

With a righty back on the mound, Adams once again warrants tournament consideration. Not only do our models show him with an ISO Differential of .137 against said handedness, but his batted-ball distance and exit velocity both qualify as top five among first basemen.

2B

Jonathan Schoop, BAL

Schoop is projected to hit in the very last spot of Baltimore’s batting order, but his .527 slugging percentage vs. RHP still warrants him an elite option among second basemen. He remains much cheaper at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 82%.

3B

Justin Turner, LAD

Expected to bat third against Jon Gray, Turner is a pivotal option in the Dodgers’ aforementioned stack. His fly-ball percentage, for instance, remains top five among third basemen.

Todd Frazier, CWS

He got off to a slow start at the beginning of the season, but Frazier has surpassed 21 FanDuel points in two of his last three games. Given his .575 slugging percentage vs. LHP, he’s worth a flier in tourneys at the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.

SS

Corey Seager, LAD

Expected to hit one spot ahead of Justin Turner would be Seager, who actually has better splits (.220 wOBA/.550 slugging percentage) vs. RHP. Given his 75% Bargain Rating at DraftKings, he’s arguably one of the more valuable players in this entire slate.

OF

Ryan Raburn, COL

Raburn really has only one talent, but it’s one that he’s arguably the best at. He’s recorded a wOBA of .398 or higher vs. lefties, for instance, in four of his last seven seasons. He could be considered an even stronger option if actually placed higher in their lineup, but his wOBA and ISO Differentials of .138/.101 are more than capable at seventh in their batting order.

Yoenis Cespedes/Michael Conforto, NYM

I’m pairing the duo together since both are equivalent options against Bud Norris, who’s allowed 1.70 HR/9 over the last 12 months. Both are slugging at least .547 against RHP and additionally include mirror-image Bargain Ratings of 81% at DraftKings. Expected to bat third and fourth for the Mets, they should certainly be prioritized as a stack rather than individually.

Weather Watch

Not only does Twins-Nationals have the highest chance of precipitation tonight, there are expected to be scattered thunderstorms in the area. Inclement weather during Mets-Braves, on the other hand, is expected to stop (or, at the least, slow down) prior to first pitch. Keep an eye on Rays-Yankees, as well, as reports have New York looking more like Washington than Atlanta.

Good luck!

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Jon Lester, CHC

Lester’s 9.18 SO/9 rate trails only Jon Gray in tonight’s slate. With the highest moneyline (-200) among starting pitchers, he can easily be considered the top cash option among tonight’s plethora of available pitchers. Additionally note his minuscule batted-ball distance allowed of 176 feet over his last two starts.

Gio Gonzalez, WSH

If not confident enough in Lester, Gonzalez should be prioritized as the next best option. He might be opposing a lineup with a slight stronger projected wOBA (.309/.284), but he actually includes two more Pro Trends and is projected to allow -0.2 fewer runs. Gonzalez’s line-drive percentage of 8% (lowest among pitchers) is also encouraging for his outlook in cash and tournaments alike.

Aaron Sanchez, TOR

The Athletics haven’t produced an incredibly high K% (19.7%) against right-handed pitching, but their .285 wOBA isn’t terrifying enough to overlook. Sanchez’s 83 mph exit velocity, after all, is the lowest among pitchers tonight. If anything, his top-four batted ball distance is certainly worth a shot in tournaments.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jon Moscot, CIN

Even if the Cubs hadn’t produced 16 runs just yesterday, they would be considered a strong stack against Moscot. All that means for today is higher ownership in tournaments. Still, Moscot’s whopping 2.19 HR/9 allowed over the past year need be exploited.

Jon Gray, COL

Gray is the Rockies’ best prospect, but unfortunately has to make his debut against a Dodgers lineup with a projected wOBA of .319. Oh yes, there will be blood.

C

Welington Castillo, ARI

Castillo’s batted-ball distance this season ranks top five among catchers. Although a negative wOBA and ISO Differential in this slate, Castillo is still set to oppose Jon Niese, who allowed 1.04 HR/9 to right-handed batters just last year. Given how hard he’s currently hitting the ball, Castillo appears to have the best shot at a home run amongst everyone else at his position.

1B

Matt Adams, STL

With a righty back on the mound, Adams once again warrants tournament consideration. Not only do our models show him with an ISO Differential of .137 against said handedness, but his batted-ball distance and exit velocity both qualify as top five among first basemen.

2B

Jonathan Schoop, BAL

Schoop is projected to hit in the very last spot of Baltimore’s batting order, but his .527 slugging percentage vs. RHP still warrants him an elite option among second basemen. He remains much cheaper at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 82%.

3B

Justin Turner, LAD

Expected to bat third against Jon Gray, Turner is a pivotal option in the Dodgers’ aforementioned stack. His fly-ball percentage, for instance, remains top five among third basemen.

Todd Frazier, CWS

He got off to a slow start at the beginning of the season, but Frazier has surpassed 21 FanDuel points in two of his last three games. Given his .575 slugging percentage vs. LHP, he’s worth a flier in tourneys at the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.

SS

Corey Seager, LAD

Expected to hit one spot ahead of Justin Turner would be Seager, who actually has better splits (.220 wOBA/.550 slugging percentage) vs. RHP. Given his 75% Bargain Rating at DraftKings, he’s arguably one of the more valuable players in this entire slate.

OF

Ryan Raburn, COL

Raburn really has only one talent, but it’s one that he’s arguably the best at. He’s recorded a wOBA of .398 or higher vs. lefties, for instance, in four of his last seven seasons. He could be considered an even stronger option if actually placed higher in their lineup, but his wOBA and ISO Differentials of .138/.101 are more than capable at seventh in their batting order.

Yoenis Cespedes/Michael Conforto, NYM

I’m pairing the duo together since both are equivalent options against Bud Norris, who’s allowed 1.70 HR/9 over the last 12 months. Both are slugging at least .547 against RHP and additionally include mirror-image Bargain Ratings of 81% at DraftKings. Expected to bat third and fourth for the Mets, they should certainly be prioritized as a stack rather than individually.

Weather Watch

Not only does Twins-Nationals have the highest chance of precipitation tonight, there are expected to be scattered thunderstorms in the area. Inclement weather during Mets-Braves, on the other hand, is expected to stop (or, at the least, slow down) prior to first pitch. Keep an eye on Rays-Yankees, as well, as reports have New York looking more like Washington than Atlanta.

Good luck!