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MLB DFS 4/15/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Chris Sale, CWS

Although a rather high 1.05 home runs per nine allowed over the past year, Sale’s 11.7 strikeouts per nine are set to oppose a Rays lineup projected with .267 strikeouts per at-bat. Furthermore, he’s allowed the lowest batted-ball velocity of any pitcher in this slate. With 88% of moneyline bets coming in on the White Sox, Sale is as strong an option as any at his position.

Zack Greinke, ARI

I haven’t the slightest clue what his ownership will be given his performance in his first two starts, but this matchup against the Padres is clearly better than facing the Cubs or Rockies. San Diego has also recorded the second-highest K% vs. RHP this season. Forget his batted-ball peripherals (which are clearly terrible given the lineups he’s faced) and focus more on the fact that Greinke is projected to allow only 3.1 runs.

Bartolo Colon, NYM

Cleveland’s projected average of .329 SO/AB qualifies as the highest of any lineup tonight. With a ridiculous Bargain Rating of 97% at DraftKings (where his exposure should be limited to), note Colon’s Distance Differential of -35 feet in his last two starts.

Pitchers to Exploit

Mike Pelfrey, DET

Pelfrey shouldn’t be starting in a major league game at any point, but alas, here we are. In fact, I’m not even sure where to begin. His bottom-two WHIP and SO/9 tonight? His -1.8 decrease in velocity since joining their rotation? A Distance Differential higher than any other pitcher? The Astros are projected to score the most runs tonight (and are considered an elite stack) for a reason.

C

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, DET

A long as he’s in Detroit’s lineup, Saltalamacchia is arguably the strongest play at catcher tonight. Both his .610 slugging percentage vs. LHP and 10 Pro Trends, for instance, trump all others at his position.

1B

David Ortiz, BOS

Ortiz’s Distance Differential of 47 feet leads all first basemen with at least three starts. With wOBA and ISO Differentials of .106/.138, Ortiz and his slate-high 12 Pro Trends are considered the top option at first base.

Mark Teixeira, NYY

Though I wouldn’t stack the Yankees in this slate, Teixeira’s .348 ISO vs. RHP is certainly intriguing for tournaments, especially given his $900 discount at FanDuel.

Ryan Howard, PHI

With an exit velocity of 100 mph this season, literally no one is hitting the ball harder than Howard at this time. With wOBA and ISO Differentials of .149/.141 vs. RHP, Howard’s incredulous $2,300 salary at FanDuel arguably makes him the most valuable player on this slate.

2B

Daniel Murphy, WSH

Murphy isn’t the sexiest player (peripheral-wise, anyways) at his position, but his batted-ball distance and exit velocity both qualify as the highest among everyday second basemen. Note Jeremy Hellickson’s 1.39 HR/9 over the last 12 months, third-highest among pitchers tonight.

3B

Nolan Arenado, COL

Though his ownership will likely be otherworldly, Arenado’s .593 slugging vs. RHP remains a steal at DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Tyler White, HOU

Expected to hit fifth for an Astros lineup projected to score five runs, White has quietly recorded the highest batted-ball distance at his position. Though he qualifies as a first baseman at FanDuel, he remains a terrific option no matter given his Bargain Rating of 95%.

SS

Jean Segura, ARZ

Segura’s Distance Differential of 48 feet qualifies as the highest among everyday shortstops. Although a horrid ISO of .093 vs. RHP, Segura can easily exceed value in other ways; for instance, his .179 steals per game — highest of his position.

OF

Christian Yelich, MIA

Though a minuscule ISO Differential of .070, Yelich’s Distance Differential of 59 feet ranks top five among outfielders. Projected to hit third for the Marlins, Yelich is a fine option in cash and tournaments alike.

Preston Tucker, HOU

Tucker ranks first in exit velocity (100 mph), line-drive percentage (50%), hard-hit percentage (80%), and Hard-Hit Differential (47%). Oh, and he has an 86% Bargain Rating at FanDuel. Need I say more?

Mitch Moreland, TEX

Though I’d consider Nomar Mazara a stronger play tonight, Moreland is an elite tournament option simply because he’s been putrid. Slugging .509 vs. RHP, however, he remains vastly underpriced at FanDuel, as shown by his Bargain Rating of 97%. Load up.

Weather Watch

Miami has a slight chance of precipitation, but they can obviously opt to close their roof. It’s fair play, yet again.

Good luck!

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Chris Sale, CWS

Although a rather high 1.05 home runs per nine allowed over the past year, Sale’s 11.7 strikeouts per nine are set to oppose a Rays lineup projected with .267 strikeouts per at-bat. Furthermore, he’s allowed the lowest batted-ball velocity of any pitcher in this slate. With 88% of moneyline bets coming in on the White Sox, Sale is as strong an option as any at his position.

Zack Greinke, ARI

I haven’t the slightest clue what his ownership will be given his performance in his first two starts, but this matchup against the Padres is clearly better than facing the Cubs or Rockies. San Diego has also recorded the second-highest K% vs. RHP this season. Forget his batted-ball peripherals (which are clearly terrible given the lineups he’s faced) and focus more on the fact that Greinke is projected to allow only 3.1 runs.

Bartolo Colon, NYM

Cleveland’s projected average of .329 SO/AB qualifies as the highest of any lineup tonight. With a ridiculous Bargain Rating of 97% at DraftKings (where his exposure should be limited to), note Colon’s Distance Differential of -35 feet in his last two starts.

Pitchers to Exploit

Mike Pelfrey, DET

Pelfrey shouldn’t be starting in a major league game at any point, but alas, here we are. In fact, I’m not even sure where to begin. His bottom-two WHIP and SO/9 tonight? His -1.8 decrease in velocity since joining their rotation? A Distance Differential higher than any other pitcher? The Astros are projected to score the most runs tonight (and are considered an elite stack) for a reason.

C

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, DET

A long as he’s in Detroit’s lineup, Saltalamacchia is arguably the strongest play at catcher tonight. Both his .610 slugging percentage vs. LHP and 10 Pro Trends, for instance, trump all others at his position.

1B

David Ortiz, BOS

Ortiz’s Distance Differential of 47 feet leads all first basemen with at least three starts. With wOBA and ISO Differentials of .106/.138, Ortiz and his slate-high 12 Pro Trends are considered the top option at first base.

Mark Teixeira, NYY

Though I wouldn’t stack the Yankees in this slate, Teixeira’s .348 ISO vs. RHP is certainly intriguing for tournaments, especially given his $900 discount at FanDuel.

Ryan Howard, PHI

With an exit velocity of 100 mph this season, literally no one is hitting the ball harder than Howard at this time. With wOBA and ISO Differentials of .149/.141 vs. RHP, Howard’s incredulous $2,300 salary at FanDuel arguably makes him the most valuable player on this slate.

2B

Daniel Murphy, WSH

Murphy isn’t the sexiest player (peripheral-wise, anyways) at his position, but his batted-ball distance and exit velocity both qualify as the highest among everyday second basemen. Note Jeremy Hellickson’s 1.39 HR/9 over the last 12 months, third-highest among pitchers tonight.

3B

Nolan Arenado, COL

Though his ownership will likely be otherworldly, Arenado’s .593 slugging vs. RHP remains a steal at DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Tyler White, HOU

Expected to hit fifth for an Astros lineup projected to score five runs, White has quietly recorded the highest batted-ball distance at his position. Though he qualifies as a first baseman at FanDuel, he remains a terrific option no matter given his Bargain Rating of 95%.

SS

Jean Segura, ARZ

Segura’s Distance Differential of 48 feet qualifies as the highest among everyday shortstops. Although a horrid ISO of .093 vs. RHP, Segura can easily exceed value in other ways; for instance, his .179 steals per game — highest of his position.

OF

Christian Yelich, MIA

Though a minuscule ISO Differential of .070, Yelich’s Distance Differential of 59 feet ranks top five among outfielders. Projected to hit third for the Marlins, Yelich is a fine option in cash and tournaments alike.

Preston Tucker, HOU

Tucker ranks first in exit velocity (100 mph), line-drive percentage (50%), hard-hit percentage (80%), and Hard-Hit Differential (47%). Oh, and he has an 86% Bargain Rating at FanDuel. Need I say more?

Mitch Moreland, TEX

Though I’d consider Nomar Mazara a stronger play tonight, Moreland is an elite tournament option simply because he’s been putrid. Slugging .509 vs. RHP, however, he remains vastly underpriced at FanDuel, as shown by his Bargain Rating of 97%. Load up.

Weather Watch

Miami has a slight chance of precipitation, but they can obviously opt to close their roof. It’s fair play, yet again.

Good luck!