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MLB DFS 4/13/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg, WSH

Strasburg’s moneyline of -220 isn’t the only number that sets him apart in this slate. Projected to allow only 3.0 runs, his 11 strikeouts per nine also qualifies as the highest among pitchers. With nine Pro Trends and additionally the oh-so-generous Bob Davidson — Plus/Minus of +1.4 — behind the plate, Strasburg is considered the top option in cash for a reason.

Carlos Carrasco, CLE

Pitching to a Rays team slated with a projected .252 strikeouts per at-bat, Carrasco’s 10.5 SO/9 includes a ridiculous discount at FanDuel — look no further than his Bargain Rating of 94%. It is, admittedly, entirely plausible that Carrasco simply implodes as his exit velocity in his first start  ranks bottom three among pitchers today, but as long as he can maneuver around Logan Morrison and Corey Dickerson (ISO Differentials of .149 and .225) in the top half of Tampa’s lineup, it should be smooth sailing.

Pitchers to Exploit

Matt Shoemaker, LAA

No one can take away Shoemaker’s dazzling 2014 that saw him limit opposing hitters to a raw average of .237. That season, however, is long gone, and has since seen him average a whopping 1.6 home runs per nine innings. Don’t let his batted-ball distance of 184 feet in his first start fool you: Shoemaker recorded a horrid strike percentage of 40% that evening. But, for our purposes, note the A’s positive ISO Differential throughout their 1-5 hitters.

Jake Peavy, SF

Both the Giants and Rockies are projected to score 5.8 runs, but Peavy’s peripherals remain slightly worse than Jordan Lyles’. The former’s fly-ball percentage of 43% over the past year, for instance, qualifies as the third highest among pitchers tonight. Additionally, the Rockies’ projected wOBA of .338 remains slightly higher than the Giants’ .321.

C

Travis d’Arnaud, NYM

Slugging .667 vs. LHP, forget d’Arnaud’s pitiful performance so far — only three of his 23 plate appearances have come against lefties this season. His wOBA and ISO Differentials of .135/.178 warrant heavy exposure in tournaments, especially since most are likely to weigh his recent performance above all else. He’s a steal at FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%.

Nick Hundley, COL

Considered the lesser part of the Rockies stack, Hundley is expected to return to Colorado’s lineup with a righty back on the mound. Note his slight ISO Differential of .022. Furthermore, Hundley’s .048 steals per game ranks second among catchers in this slate.

1B

Chris Davis, BAL

Considered the top option among first basemen, Davis’ average air time of 4.45 seconds trails only Matt Adams’ (more of a platoon player) at their position. If looking to shy away from a Giants-Rockies stack, Davis, or, better yet, Orioles-Red Sox, is the way to go.

David Ortiz, BOS

Averaging the fourth-highest batted-ball distance at his position, it’s almost a crime that Ortiz “only” has three home runs this season. His slate-high 13 Pro Trends keep him in the same category as Davis.

Ryan Howard, PHI

Howard has quietly climbed into the top three of batted-ball distance (286 feet), exit velocity (101 mph), and Batted-Ball Differential (53 feet) among first basemen. With a righty on the mound, Howard’s immaculate wOBA and ISO Differentials of .152/.136 need to be rostered in at least one of your cash or tournament lineups.

2B

Jonathan Schoop, BAL

Slugging .559 vs. RHP, Schoop is considered a unique (albeit confident) way to gain exposure towards Baltimore. His ISO of .256 qualifies as the highest among second basemen with at least five starts.

3B

Manny Machado, BAL

Unlike Schoop, Machado is the not-so-unique way to stack Baltimore. Note his Hard-Hit Differential of 22%, which leads his position.

Nolan Arenado, COL

Though another elite cash play at third base, Arenado’s .135 ISO Differential (combined with his slugging percentage of .584) warrants it. If making the decision between him or Machado, Arenado’s 11 Pro Trends notably lead his position.

SS

Jean Segura, ARZ

Segura wasn’t exactly a stud against lefties last season, but his peripherals suggest he’s seeing the ball better than anyone at his position. Despite a slightly negative ISO Differential of -.006, for instance, Segura is still an elite tournament option due to his Batted-Ball Differential of 72 feet. His .182 steals per game are also .027 greater than any other shortstop.

OF

Mike Trout, LAA

Though a Distance Differential of -20 feet, note Trout’s Plus/Minus of +2.31 when a pitcher throws below 90. Eric Surkamp averaged a velocity of 88.5 mph in his first start this season.

Denard Span, SF

Projected to bat leadoff for the Giants, Span can do it all when opposing lefties. Averaging .176 steals per game already, he also includes positive wOBA and ISO Differentials of .138/.087 in this slate.

Gregory Polanco, PIT

Shane Greene has allowed 1.59 HR/9 over the last 12 months. With a Distance Differential equivalent to Bryce Harper, it’s astonishing that Polanco has yet to hit one out of the park. He fortunately can deliver value in other ways, as shown by his .168 steals per game.

Weather Watch

Three consecutive days without worries of precipitation. Enjoy.

Three Things I Like Or Don’t Like

O Bryce, Where Harp Thou

There’s really no need to mention Bryce Harper in these previews anymore. If he’s facing a righty (and, by the way, he is tonight), he’s in your cash lineup until further notice (especially at DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 94%). 

Here I Am, On the Road Again

That was a shitty attempt to segue from Bob to Corey Seager, kids. Anyways, our models show Seager with wOBA and ISO Differentials of .133/.154, but I’m concerned. He should be in a terrific spot, set to oppose a righty and all, but look no further than his negative Distance (-37), exit velocity (-4), and Hard-Hit (-22) Differentials if pondering regression.

Alfredo Simon

I deliberately saved this for last as to avoid any arguments or flame emojis. The Cubs are considered an elite cash stack by the majority today but (gulp) I tend to side with Simon. After all, he allowed only .89 HR/9 to right-handed batters last season. Now, the Cubs are projected to have five lefties in their lineup tonight, but three have negative wOBA Differentials. And, if looking further into this hypothesis, Simon’s Distance Differential of -31 is tops among pitchers. Given his Batted-Ball Distance of 172 feet in his last start, I’m willing to, at the least, give him a go in tournaments.

Good luck today!

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No related posts.

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg, WSH

Strasburg’s moneyline of -220 isn’t the only number that sets him apart in this slate. Projected to allow only 3.0 runs, his 11 strikeouts per nine also qualifies as the highest among pitchers. With nine Pro Trends and additionally the oh-so-generous Bob Davidson — Plus/Minus of +1.4 — behind the plate, Strasburg is considered the top option in cash for a reason.

Carlos Carrasco, CLE

Pitching to a Rays team slated with a projected .252 strikeouts per at-bat, Carrasco’s 10.5 SO/9 includes a ridiculous discount at FanDuel — look no further than his Bargain Rating of 94%. It is, admittedly, entirely plausible that Carrasco simply implodes as his exit velocity in his first start  ranks bottom three among pitchers today, but as long as he can maneuver around Logan Morrison and Corey Dickerson (ISO Differentials of .149 and .225) in the top half of Tampa’s lineup, it should be smooth sailing.

Pitchers to Exploit

Matt Shoemaker, LAA

No one can take away Shoemaker’s dazzling 2014 that saw him limit opposing hitters to a raw average of .237. That season, however, is long gone, and has since seen him average a whopping 1.6 home runs per nine innings. Don’t let his batted-ball distance of 184 feet in his first start fool you: Shoemaker recorded a horrid strike percentage of 40% that evening. But, for our purposes, note the A’s positive ISO Differential throughout their 1-5 hitters.

Jake Peavy, SF

Both the Giants and Rockies are projected to score 5.8 runs, but Peavy’s peripherals remain slightly worse than Jordan Lyles’. The former’s fly-ball percentage of 43% over the past year, for instance, qualifies as the third highest among pitchers tonight. Additionally, the Rockies’ projected wOBA of .338 remains slightly higher than the Giants’ .321.

C

Travis d’Arnaud, NYM

Slugging .667 vs. LHP, forget d’Arnaud’s pitiful performance so far — only three of his 23 plate appearances have come against lefties this season. His wOBA and ISO Differentials of .135/.178 warrant heavy exposure in tournaments, especially since most are likely to weigh his recent performance above all else. He’s a steal at FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%.

Nick Hundley, COL

Considered the lesser part of the Rockies stack, Hundley is expected to return to Colorado’s lineup with a righty back on the mound. Note his slight ISO Differential of .022. Furthermore, Hundley’s .048 steals per game ranks second among catchers in this slate.

1B

Chris Davis, BAL

Considered the top option among first basemen, Davis’ average air time of 4.45 seconds trails only Matt Adams’ (more of a platoon player) at their position. If looking to shy away from a Giants-Rockies stack, Davis, or, better yet, Orioles-Red Sox, is the way to go.

David Ortiz, BOS

Averaging the fourth-highest batted-ball distance at his position, it’s almost a crime that Ortiz “only” has three home runs this season. His slate-high 13 Pro Trends keep him in the same category as Davis.

Ryan Howard, PHI

Howard has quietly climbed into the top three of batted-ball distance (286 feet), exit velocity (101 mph), and Batted-Ball Differential (53 feet) among first basemen. With a righty on the mound, Howard’s immaculate wOBA and ISO Differentials of .152/.136 need to be rostered in at least one of your cash or tournament lineups.

2B

Jonathan Schoop, BAL

Slugging .559 vs. RHP, Schoop is considered a unique (albeit confident) way to gain exposure towards Baltimore. His ISO of .256 qualifies as the highest among second basemen with at least five starts.

3B

Manny Machado, BAL

Unlike Schoop, Machado is the not-so-unique way to stack Baltimore. Note his Hard-Hit Differential of 22%, which leads his position.

Nolan Arenado, COL

Though another elite cash play at third base, Arenado’s .135 ISO Differential (combined with his slugging percentage of .584) warrants it. If making the decision between him or Machado, Arenado’s 11 Pro Trends notably lead his position.

SS

Jean Segura, ARZ

Segura wasn’t exactly a stud against lefties last season, but his peripherals suggest he’s seeing the ball better than anyone at his position. Despite a slightly negative ISO Differential of -.006, for instance, Segura is still an elite tournament option due to his Batted-Ball Differential of 72 feet. His .182 steals per game are also .027 greater than any other shortstop.

OF

Mike Trout, LAA

Though a Distance Differential of -20 feet, note Trout’s Plus/Minus of +2.31 when a pitcher throws below 90. Eric Surkamp averaged a velocity of 88.5 mph in his first start this season.

Denard Span, SF

Projected to bat leadoff for the Giants, Span can do it all when opposing lefties. Averaging .176 steals per game already, he also includes positive wOBA and ISO Differentials of .138/.087 in this slate.

Gregory Polanco, PIT

Shane Greene has allowed 1.59 HR/9 over the last 12 months. With a Distance Differential equivalent to Bryce Harper, it’s astonishing that Polanco has yet to hit one out of the park. He fortunately can deliver value in other ways, as shown by his .168 steals per game.

Weather Watch

Three consecutive days without worries of precipitation. Enjoy.

Three Things I Like Or Don’t Like

O Bryce, Where Harp Thou

There’s really no need to mention Bryce Harper in these previews anymore. If he’s facing a righty (and, by the way, he is tonight), he’s in your cash lineup until further notice (especially at DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 94%). 

Here I Am, On the Road Again

That was a shitty attempt to segue from Bob to Corey Seager, kids. Anyways, our models show Seager with wOBA and ISO Differentials of .133/.154, but I’m concerned. He should be in a terrific spot, set to oppose a righty and all, but look no further than his negative Distance (-37), exit velocity (-4), and Hard-Hit (-22) Differentials if pondering regression.

Alfredo Simon

I deliberately saved this for last as to avoid any arguments or flame emojis. The Cubs are considered an elite cash stack by the majority today but (gulp) I tend to side with Simon. After all, he allowed only .89 HR/9 to right-handed batters last season. Now, the Cubs are projected to have five lefties in their lineup tonight, but three have negative wOBA Differentials. And, if looking further into this hypothesis, Simon’s Distance Differential of -31 is tops among pitchers. Given his Batted-Ball Distance of 172 feet in his last start, I’m willing to, at the least, give him a go in tournaments.

Good luck today!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.